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what it is
NextDecade is building a giant Texas LNG export project and hopes the cash register turns on after construction does.
how it gets paid
Last year Nextdecade made $0 in revenue.
what just happened
The quarter still looked like a pre-revenue buildout, with $0 revenue and a loss per share.
At a glance
C++ balance sheet — some cracks in the foundation
35/100 earnings predictability — expect surprises
-$0.24 fy2024 eps est
$2B fy2026 rev est
1.6 beta
xvary composite: 21/100 — weak
What they do
NextDecade is building a giant Texas LNG export project and hopes the cash register turns on after construction does.
The edge is permits plus scale. NextDecade has approval for up to 27 million tonnes per annum at Rio Grande LNG, which is export capacity you cannot copy with a press release. LNG trains (super-cold gas processing lines) → the machines that turn gas into exportable liquid → so what: if your project gets built, buyers care about capacity and permits, not branding.
How they make money
$0
annual revenue
The products that matter
develops and builds LNG export capacity
Rio Grande LNG
$10B+ project cost · $0 current revenue
this is the whole story: a $10B+ terminal project supporting a company worth about $2B today, despite producing no trailing revenue yet.
single-asset bet
Key numbers
$2.0B
2026 revenue est.
That is the future revenue target in the base data. Plain English: you are paying today for a business that still reports $0 annual revenue.
$6.8B
long-term debt
Debt (money the company owes) → fixed obligations that get paid before shareholders → so what: this is a huge load for a pre-revenue company.
82%
debt to capital
Capital structure (how a company funds itself) → mix of debt and equity → so what: debt dominates the stack here.
27 mtpa
approved capacity
Export capacity → how much LNG the site is allowed to ship → so what: this is the scale that makes the project matter if completed.
Financial health
C++
strength
- balance sheet grade C++ — below average — limited financial resources
- risk rank 5 — safer than 5% of stocks
- price stability 5 / 100
- long-term debt $6.8B (82% of capital)
C++ — balance sheet grade and long-term debt are flagged. this stock carries more risk than average.
Total return vs. market
Return history isn't available for NEXT right now.
source: institutional data · return history unavailable
What just happened
missed estimates
The quarter still looked like a pre-revenue buildout, with $0 revenue and a loss per share.
Latest quarterly revenue was $0 in EDGAR data. Quarterly EPS was -$0.99 in EDGAR, while the latest reported earnings figure in consensus data showed -$0.42, which tells you the noise is high and the core issue is unchanged: no revenue yet.
$0
revenue
$0.99
eps
n/a
n/a
the number that mattered
$0 revenue matters most because it tells you this is still a financing-and-construction story, not an operating one.
source: company filings, 2026
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What could go wrong
the #1 risk here is Rio Grande LNG financing and construction execution. This is a single-project equity story with $0 revenue, $306.4M in trailing losses, and $6.8B of long-term debt already on the books.
high
construction and cost-overrun risk
A $10B+ terminal project rarely gets judged on intent. It gets judged on schedule and budget. If costs rise or timelines slip, the future cash flow investors are paying for today gets pushed further out.
With $0 current revenue, there is no operating cushion. Delays hit the whole thesis, not just a quarter.
high
valuation compression
NEXT trades at 9.6x book versus a 1.3x peer average. That multiple is a vote of confidence in an unfinished asset. If confidence fades, the multiple can fall long before the project does.
The premium is about 7x the peer average. That gives the stock a long way to fall if the story stops feeling special.
med
funding structure risk
Long-term debt is already $6.8B, or 82% of capital. For a pre-revenue company, that means every new financing decision matters — pricing, counterparties, and timing all feed back into equity value.
When leverage is this high before commercial operations start, ordinary execution mistakes become capital-structure problems.
med
global LNG price sensitivity
European LNG futures averaged $10.43/MMBtu in nov. 2025. Demand for export capacity and investor appetite for LNG infrastructure can cool fast if commodity economics weaken.
This does not change the engineering. It can change the economics investors are willing to fund.
A forced reset in either financing terms or project timing would hit a company with $0 revenue, $306.4M in trailing losses, and a valuation still well above peers on book value.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
catalyst
final investment decision for additional trains
Management flagged trains 6–8 as a strategic priority. You do not need a slogan here. You need a real FID, because that is how a development story starts looking like an operating one.
balance sheet
long-term debt at $6.8B
Debt is already 82% of capital. If that rises materially before revenue arrives, equity holders are taking more construction risk with less room for error.
market
the 52-week range is still $5–$12
That range is the market's mood board for project risk. Shares closer to $5 say investors want proof. Shares closer to $12 say they are pricing optimism early.
commodity backdrop
European LNG futures averaged $10.43/MMBtu in nov. 2025
NEXT is not selling LNG yet, but the external price environment still shapes how attractive new export capacity looks to customers and financiers.
Analyst rankings
earnings predictability
35 / 100
in human-speak: analysts do not have a stable operating history to work with, so estimates can swing hard as project assumptions change.
beta
1.6
This stock has moved more than the market. You should expect amplified reactions when financing or construction headlines hit.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
institutional ownership data for NEXT is being compiled.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
n/a
n/a
$5
current price
n/a
target midpoint · n/a from current
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