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what it is
Newmont digs gold, copper, silver, and other metals out of mines across four continents.
how it gets paid
Last year Newmont made $22.7B in revenue. Gold was the main engine at $17.1B, or 75% of sales.
why it's growing
Revenue grew 21.3% last year. Revenue hit $15.9B, and gold above $4,200 an ounce did most of the heavy lifting.
what just happened
Newmont posted $2.52 in EPS versus $1.91 expected.
At a glance
A balance sheet — strong enough to weather a downturn
50/100 earnings predictability — expect surprises
15.8x trailing p/e — the market's not buying it — or you found a deal
1.0% dividend yield — cash in your pocket every quarter
20.5% return on capital — every dollar works hard here
xvary composite: 73/100 — average
What they do
Newmont digs gold, copper, silver, and other metals out of mines across four continents.
You are not buying a single mine. You are buying 6.85 million ounces of gold production and $4.5B in free cash flow, which is cash left after spending. Newmont spans North America, South America, Asia/Pacific, and Africa, so one bad country does not own your outcome.
How they make money
$22.7B
annual revenue · their business grew +21.3% last year
Gold
$17.1B
Copper
$2.3B
Silver
$1.9B
Other metals
$1.4B
The products that matter
global gold mining operations
Gold Production
$22.7B revenue · +43.0%
this source feed aggregates the business into one line. what matters is simple: the mines produced a $22.7B revenue base and enough profit to support a 34.9% net margin.
the whole business
Key numbers
$4.5B
ytd free cash flow
free cash flow → cash left after spending → this is the money management can use without borrowing.
$22.7B
annual revenue
sales → money coming in → the top line grew 21.3% vs. prior year.
6.85M oz
gold output
production → ounces mined → more ounces give you more leverage when gold is expensive.
$18.69
price gap
The stock trades $18.69 above the cautious target, so you are not paying for a bargain.
Financial health
A
strength
- balance sheet grade A — very strong financial position
- risk rank 3 — safer than 50% of stocks
- price stability 45 / 100
- long-term debt $5.2B (5% of capital)
- net profit margin 28.0% — keeps 28 cents of every dollar in revenue
- return on equity 24% — $0.24 profit for every $1 investors have put in
A with balance sheet grade and net profit margin standing out. your money faces less risk here than at most public companies.
Total return vs. market
You invested $10,000 in NEM 3 years ago → it's now worth $23,710.
The index would have given you $13,920.
source: institutional data · total return
What just happened
beat estimates
Newmont posted $2.52 in EPS versus $1.91 expected.
Revenue hit $15.9B, and gold above $4,200 an ounce did most of the heavy lifting. Free cash flow reached $1.6B in the quarter.
$5.7B
revenue
$2.52
eps
50.0%
gross margin
the number that mattered
The $2.52 EPS beat mattered because it showed profit ran ahead of the $1.91 bar while gold stayed hot.
-
newmont corporation’s shares tumbled following third-quarter earnings despite record financial performance.
-
the mining giant reported $1.6 billion in quarterly free cash flow, bringing the year-to-date total to $4.5 billion and setting an all-time company record.
-
adjusted earnings of $1.71 per share more than doubled the results from the previous year and increased 20% from the previous quarter.
-
record gold prices above $4,200 per ounce, combined with disciplined cost management, drove the results.
-
however, investors focused on a 15% vs. prior year decline in production to 1.42 million ounces, caused by non-core asset sales and lower grades at the penasquito site.ceo tom palmer’s announcement to retire at year-end, following a decadelong tenure, has added to short-term uncertainty. incoming ceo natascha viljoen outlined her priorities, including a leaner organizational structure, ongoing share repurchases, and margin expansion through cost control rather than chasing gold prices.
source: company earnings report, 2026
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What could go wrong
the #1 risk is production slippage at large mines like peñasquito or boddington.
med
production keeps falling
The latest quarter already showed production down 15% to 1.42M ounces. If that keeps happening, revenue becomes more dependent on the gold price staying friendly.
This is the direct threat to the current setup: weaker volume can undo the market's confidence in those 34.9% margins.
med
gold price does the heavy lifting until it doesn't
Newmont's $22.7B revenue base sits on top of a commodity price. When gold rises, miners look efficient. When gold cools, investors rediscover costs.
If the gold backdrop softens, the stock loses the support that made recent earnings look so strong.
med
cost inflation eats the margin
A 34.9% net margin is excellent for mining. It is also the number most exposed if labor, energy, or sustaining capital costs move the wrong way.
You do not need a disaster for the earnings story to weaken. You just need costs to rise faster than realized prices.
med
permitting, environmental, and political friction
This is a global miner operating across four regions. That diversification helps, but it also creates more places for permitting delays, local disputes, or regulatory pressure to show up.
One issue rarely breaks a $109B company. A series of them can chip away at production, timing, and investor trust.
If production stays below the prior run rate while gold cools, the 34.9% net margin and $22.7B revenue base start to look less durable.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
earnings
next quarterly production update
The quarter gave you $1.67 EPS. The next report needs to show that production can recover from 1.42M ounces.
trend
gold price versus stock price
If bullion stalls while NEM stays near $100, the stock is telling you a lot of optimism is already in the quote.
risk
mine-specific disruptions
Permitting, safety issues, or lower output at major sites matter more here than a generic macro headline.
metric
free cash flow and margin
$1.6B of quarterly free cash flow and a 34.9% net margin are the proof beats. If either slips, the story cools fast.
Analyst rankings
short-term outlook
top 20%
momentum score 2 — in human-speak, analysts still expect above-average price performance over the next year.
risk profile
average
stability score 3 — this is not a bunker stock, but it is not a balance-sheet accident either.
chart momentum
average
technical score 3 — the chart is behaving like a stock that already had a big move and now needs fresh proof.
earnings predictability
50 / 100
Expect variability. Commodity prices, mine output, and costs can all move the numbers around.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
institutions have been net buying for 3 consecutive quarters — 819 buyers vs. 534 sellers in 3q2025. total institutional holdings: 0.8B shares. net buying for 3 quarters.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
$38
$124
$100
current price
$81
target midpoint · 19% from current · 3-5yr high: $230 (+130% · 24% ann'l return)
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