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what it is
Noble rents offshore drilling rigs to oil and gas companies that need wells drilled in deep and harsh waters.
how it gets paid
Last year Noble made $3.3B in revenue. ultra-deepwater floaters was the main engine at $1.98B, or 60% of sales.
why it's growing
Revenue grew 7.4% last year. The business still produced $2.5B of quarterly revenue.
what just happened
Latest reported earnings showed a loss of -$0.13 per share, a sharp contrast with the 2024 quarterly run-rate that reached as high as $1.34.
At a glance
B+ balance sheet — decent shape, but not bulletproof
31.5x trailing p/e — you're paying up for this one
4.3% dividend yield — cash in your pocket every quarter
8.6% return on capital — nothing to write home about
$3.44 fy2024 eps est
xvary composite: 49/100 — below average
What they do
Noble rents offshore drilling rigs to oil and gas companies that need wells drilled in deep and harsh waters.
This is a scale business hiding inside a brutal industry. Noble has 40 offshore rigs, including 27 floaters and 13 jackups, working across seven regions, which gives your customer more options when a complex well cannot wait. Fleet utilization is the real moat here (utilization → how often rigs are earning money → idle rigs bleed cash), and a modern fleet matters more offshore because one failed job can cost a customer millions.
How they make money
$3.3B
annual revenue · their business grew +7.4% last year
ultra-deepwater floaters
$1.98B
+9.0%
harsh-environment floaters
$0.59B
+6.0%
jackup rigs
$0.56B
+4.0%
other contract services
$0.17B
+2.0%
The products that matter
offshore drilling contracts
Contract Drilling Services
$705M · 92% of latest quarter revenue
This is the business. It generated $705M in the latest quarter, which tells you almost all of Noble's economics still come from contracted rig time. You are not buying a diversified energy platform. You are buying utilization and day rates.
core revenue engine
future contracted work
Backlog
$7.5B · over 2x annual revenue
Backlog is not revenue yet. It is signed work expected to become revenue over time. At $7.5B versus roughly $3B in annual revenue, it gives the bull case real support. It also means the market has to keep believing those contracts convert on schedule.
the thesis support
non-core and ancillary income
Other Revenues
$59M · 8% of latest quarter revenue
Only $59M came from everything outside contract drilling in the latest quarter. That's useful because it kills the "hidden second engine" idea. There isn't one on this page.
small side bucket
Key numbers
21%
debt load
Long-term debt is 21% of capital, which means leverage looks controlled today, but this is still a cyclical driller with $2.0B of debt.
4.3%
dividend yield
Yield means cash paid to you each year, and 4.3% is real income as long as EPS stays near the 2024 estimate of $3.44.
8.6%
return on capital
Return on capital means profit earned on money tied up in the business, and 8.6% says Noble is decent, not elite, at turning rigs into returns.
31.5x
trailing p/e
Price-to-earnings means how much you pay for each dollar of profit, and 31.5x is expensive for a driller unless earnings keep rising.
Financial health
B+
strength
- balance sheet grade B+ — solid but not elite
- risk rank 4 — safer than 20% of stocks
- price stability 30 / 100
- long-term debt $2.0B (21% of capital)
B+ — functional but not a standout on the balance sheet.
Total return vs. market
Return history isn't available for NE right now.
source: institutional data · return history unavailable
What just happened
missed estimates
Latest reported earnings showed a loss of -$0.13 per share, a sharp contrast with the 2024 quarterly run-rate that reached as high as $1.34.
The business still produced $2.5B of quarterly revenue, up 216% vs. prior year, but bottom-line results were volatile. That gap says contract timing and costs can make revenue look healthy while earnings still trip over the rig cycle.
$825M
revenue
-$0.13
eps
216%
revenue growth
the number that mattered
The number that mattered was EPS at -$0.13, because revenue can look huge in offshore drilling while profit still vanishes on timing, utilization, or cost swings.
source: company earnings report, 2026
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What could go wrong
Noble's risk is not abstract. The company needs a soft demand patch to stay temporary, a $7.5B backlog to stay intact, and weak earnings to improve before the market gets tired of waiting.
high
Ultra-deepwater demand stays soft longer
Management already framed recovery for late 2026 or early 2027. If customer spending slips again, the next few quarters stay stuck with weaker day rates and slower contract awards.
If the soft patch lasts longer, future work gets priced below what the stock is implicitly expecting.
high
Backlog converts slower than investors expect
The $7.5B backlog is the whole bull case. Delays, customer changes, idle time, or cancellations would hit future revenue directly because backlog only matters if it becomes billable work.
You are underwriting future execution. If that future slips, the valuation follows it down.
med
The multiple stops getting the benefit of the doubt
A 31.5x trailing p/e is a rich setup for a cyclical driller. If quarterly EPS stays near $0.09, the market stops treating backlog like a near-term substitute for earnings.
This stock can get cheaper even if the long-term story is still technically alive.
med
Debt and maintenance narrow the margin for error
$2.0B of long-term debt and a B+ balance sheet are manageable, not magical. Offshore fleets need constant upkeep, and capital-heavy businesses become less forgiving when utilization falls.
Debt does not look fatal here. It does mean the company has less room to absorb a long downturn gracefully.
The stock works if backlog converts, utilization improves, and $0.09 EPS turns into something sturdier. If one of those breaks, you are left owning a cyclical driller with a low stability score and a lot less narrative cover.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
metric
2026 revenue guidance
$2.8B is the number that matters most right now. Hit it, and the backlog case holds together. Miss it, and the market will assume the gap between contracts and earnings is getting wider.
risk
backlog stability
The backlog sits at $7.5B. You want that number holding up because it is doing a lot of the narrative heavy lifting at this valuation.
calendar
late 2026 demand window
Management framed a recovery window around late 2026 or early 2027. The closer you get to that window, the more contract commentary matters.
trend
earnings catching up to backlog
$0.09 EPS, $232M of EBITDA, and $35M of free cash flow do not yet scream operating lift. You want those figures rising together, not one at a time.
Analyst rankings
overall view
49 / 100
Below average composite score. in human-speak, the market sees a real backlog story but not enough present-day proof.
balance sheet
B+
Financially functional, not fortress-level. You can live with it, but you do not get luxury-grade safety.
risk rank
4
Higher risk profile on this scale. Translation: this name is tied to the offshore cycle, and the stock will act like it.
price stability
30 / 100
Low stability score. That's the system's polite way of saying you should expect bigger swings than the average stock.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
institutional ownership data for NE is being compiled.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
n/a
n/a
$30
current price
n/a
target midpoint · n/a from current
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