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what it is
It sells advertising in U.S. movie theaters before films start and across related in-theater media.
how it gets paid
Last year National Cinemedia made $243M in revenue. national on-screen advertising was the main engine at $122M, or 50% of sales.
why it's growing
Revenue grew 1.0% last year. Annual revenue was $243M, up 1.0% vs. prior year, but the latest quarter still showed EPS of -$0.42 in SEC data.
what just happened
Revenue reached $150M, up 137% vs. prior year, showing how violently this business can snap back.
At a glance
B balance sheet — gets the job done, barely
5/100 earnings predictability — expect surprises
7.2x trailing p/e — the market's not buying it — or you found a deal
3.6% dividend yield — cash in your pocket every quarter
-$0.23 fy2024 eps est
xvary composite: 45/100 — below average
What they do
It sells advertising in U.S. movie theaters before films start and across related in-theater media.
NCM has exclusive ad-selling rights across 42 theater circuits, including AMC, Cinemark, and Regal. That gives you reach across more than 17,500 screens, 1,350 theaters, and 184 media markets, including all top 50. If a brand wants national cinema ads, one network buys them scale fast.
How they make money
$243M
annual revenue · their business grew +1.0% last year
national on-screen advertising
$122M
local and regional advertising
$49M
lobby and in-theater media
$29M
digital and social extensions
$24M
data, measurement, and experiential campaigns
$19M
The products that matter
on-screen and lobby ad sales
National Advertising
$173M · 71% of revenue
This is the $173M national business that carries 71% of revenue, so when large brand campaigns pause, the whole model feels it.
core revenue engine
targeted local market advertising
Local & Regional Advertising
$70M · 29% of revenue
This $70M segment is 29% of revenue and slipped 1.4%, which is why local growth needs to become real, not just strategic language.
needs to inflect
Key numbers
-$0.23
fy2024 eps est
$241M
fy2024 rev est
7.2x
trailing p/e
3.6%
dividend yield
Financial health
B
strength
- balance sheet grade B — adequate — nothing special
- risk rank 3 — safer than 50% of stocks
- price stability 5 / 100
- long-term debt $11M (3% of capital)
B — functional but not a standout on the balance sheet.
Total return vs. market
Return history isn't available for NCMI right now.
source: institutional data · return history unavailable
What just happened
beat estimates
Revenue reached $150M, up 137% vs. prior year, showing how violently this business can snap back.
Annual revenue was $243M, up 1.0% vs. prior year, but the latest quarter still showed EPS of -$0.42 in SEC data. Quiet part out loud: revenue can rebound hard while profits still look messy.
$150M
latest-quarter revenue
$0.42
latest-quarter eps
5.7%
operating margin
the number that mattered
$150M matters because it is 61.7% of the full-year $243M revenue base, which tells you quarter timing drives this stock.
source: SEC filings and company earnings materials, 2026
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What could go wrong
The #1 risk here is box office weakness feeding straight into ad demand. This business only works when theaters stay full enough for brands to care.
high
Box office dependency
A weak film slate, fewer moviegoers, or softer theater traffic cuts directly into ad demand. That exposes essentially all $241M of revenue to the health of the cinema ecosystem.
If attendance disappoints, revenue momentum can fade fast.
med
Capital return versus operating reality
The company returned $33.6M to shareholders in 2025 while trailing net income was -$10.6M. A 3.6% dividend looks nice until you ask what cash should be doing instead.
If cash generation weakens, shareholder returns become harder to defend.
med
Partner concentration and theater access
The network only exists because theater partners let it exist. Any dispute, renegotiation, or industry consolidation can pressure distribution and ad inventory at the same time.
Lose screens, and the scale argument gets weaker immediately.
low
Local advertising still isn't helping enough
Local and regional advertising is $70M, or 29% of revenue, and it fell 1.4%. If that line stays soft, the company remains too dependent on national campaigns.
The recovery stays narrow instead of broad.
If theater traffic stalls, it pressures the whole $241M revenue base while the company is still working back from a $10.6M trailing loss.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
calendar
Q1 2026 earnings report
Scheduled for May 5, 2026. Consensus revenue is $91M. That's close enough to the $93.2M Q4 result to make the comparison matter immediately.
trend
Whether local ads stop shrinking
Local and regional advertising fell 1.4% and sits at $70M. You want that segment growing if the recovery is broadening.
metric
Adjusted OIBDA follow-through
Q4 adjusted OIBDA was $37.2M, up 6%. If revenue rises without OIBDA following, the margin story is weaker than it looks.
risk
Whether capital returns stay ahead of earnings quality
A 3.6% dividend and resumed buybacks can make the stock look friendlier than the business. Watch whether payouts keep outrunning profit.
Analyst rankings
earnings predictability
5 / 100
in human-speak, the numbers can swing hard and consensus is often playing catch-up.
balance sheet grade
B
Adequate financial footing. Not distressed, not elite. The business model is the bigger question.
risk rank
3
Middle-of-the-pack risk. Safer than some small caps, but the 5 / 100 price stability score tells you the stock can still move like one.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
institutional ownership data for NCMI is being compiled.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
n/a
n/a
$3
current price
n/a
target midpoint · n/a from current
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