Start here if you're new
what it is
Norwegian sells cruise vacations through Norwegian, Oceania, and Regent across more than 30 ships and 60,000 berths.
how it gets paid
Last year Norwegian Cruise made $9.8B in revenue. Norwegian brand tickets was the main engine at $5.4B, or 55% of sales.
why it's growing
Revenue grew 3.7% last year. Occupancy remained strong at over 106%, supported by healthy family demand, while net yields increased modestly amid a more promotional caribbean environment.
what just happened
The latest reported quarter showed a $0.28 EPS miss versus the $0.32 estimate, even as demand stayed solid.
At a glance
C++ balance sheet — some cracks in the foundation
10/100 earnings predictability — expect surprises
11.6x trailing p/e — the market's not buying it — or you found a deal
9.5% return on capital — nothing to write home about
xvary composite: 42/100 — below average
What they do
Norwegian sells cruise vacations through Norwegian, Oceania, and Regent across more than 30 ships and 60,000 berths.
This is a scale business disguised as a vacation. More than 30 ships and 60,000 berths let Norwegian spread ship costs across a lot of passengers. Occupancy was over 106% in the September period, which means cabins held more than two people on average, so what: if your ships stay packed, fixed costs hurt less and margins climb faster.
How they make money
$9.8B
annual revenue · their business grew +3.7% last year
Norwegian brand tickets
$5.4B
Norwegian onboard spending
$1.6B
Oceania Cruises
$1.4B
Regent Seven Seas
$1.2B
Air and other
$0.2B
The products that matter
operates and fills cruise ships
Global Cruise Fleet
$9.8B revenue · +29.6% growth
It is the whole story: a $9.8B fleet business that recovered fast enough to post a 20.5% operating margin and a 9.9% net margin. There is no second act hiding elsewhere.
entire business
Key numbers
$40
18-month target
The published 18-month target is $40 versus $24.34 today, or about 64% higher. That gap tells you how cheap the stock looks if demand and execution hold.
$13.6B
long-term debt
Debt is 57% of capital. Translation: lenders still matter almost as much as passengers.
23.0%
operating margin
Operating margin means profit after running the ships, before interest and taxes, so what: the core business can make money even with a heavy balance sheet.
9.5%
return on capital
Return on capital means profit generated on the money tied up in ships and equipment, so what: decent, but not yet amazing for such a risky setup.
Financial health
C++
strength
- balance sheet grade C++ — below average — limited financial resources
- risk rank 5 — safer than 5% of stocks
- price stability 10 / 100
- long-term debt $13.6B (57% of capital)
- net profit margin 13.5% — keeps 14 cents of every dollar in revenue
- return on equity 60% — $0.60 profit for every $1 investors have put in
C++ — balance sheet grade and long-term debt are flagged. this stock carries more risk than average.
Total return vs. market
You invested $10,000 in NCLH 3 years ago → it's now worth $15,860.
The index would have given you $14,770.
source: institutional data · total return
What just happened
missed estimates
The latest reported quarter showed a $0.28 EPS miss versus the $0.32 estimate, even as demand stayed solid.
The quote-feed result missed by 12.5%, while Value Line's quarterly history shows September-period EPS of $1.20 and occupancy above 106%. Deadpan fact bomb: the stock can have packed ships and still get punished for one pricing or execution wobble.
$7.6B
revenue
$0.87
eps
23.0%
operating margin
the number that mattered
The 12.5% earnings miss mattered most because this stock already carries risk rank 5 and $13.6B of debt, so investors have less patience for small stumbles.
-
september-period earnings of $1.20 per share topped our estimate, but revenue came in roughly in line with expectations and was viewed as somewhat underwhelming at first glance.
-
the stock sold off following the release, though the shares have since recovered and are now up just over 5% since our last review in october.
-
occupancy remained strong at over 106%, supported by healthy family demand, while net yields increased modestly amid a more promotional caribbean environment.
-
demand trends remain constructive heading into 2026 and beyond.
-
advance ticket sales reached another record, and management raised its full-year earnings outlook while reiterating margin targets.
source: company earnings report, 2026
Get this snapshot in your inbox
This page, delivered free — plus weekly updates when the numbers change. plain english, no spam.
weekly updates
earnings alerts
plain english
no spam
What could go wrong
the #1 risk is high debt in a cyclical vacation business.
med
$13.6B of long-term debt leaves little room for a soft patch
Debt is 57% of capital. That is manageable when ships are full and margins hold. It gets uncomfortable fast if bookings wobble or pricing slips.
A weaker demand period would hit earnings and slow the one thing this story needs most: balance-sheet repair.
med
fuel, health events, and itinerary disruptions can wreck a quarter
Cruise operations are physical and messy. A fuel spike, port disruption, or onboard health issue can hit costs, occupancy, and brand perception at the same time.
With only a 9.9% net margin, the cushion is thinner than the 20.5% operating margin first suggests.
med
the recovery can stall even if demand still looks decent
The latest quarter beat estimates, but EPS still fell 9% from last year and earnings predictability sits at 10/100. This business still earns the market's skepticism.
If profits do not grow into the $2.65 full-year estimate, the cheap multiple stops looking cheap and starts looking accurate.
These risks sit on top of $13.6B in long-term debt, 57% of capital, and a stability score of 5. If demand slips, equity holders feel it first.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
metric
debt as a share of capital
It sits at 57% now. If that ratio does not start moving down, the operating recovery is creating less equity value than the headline revenue growth implies.
earnings
next quarterly EPS versus the $2.65 full-year path
The stock can live with noise. It cannot live with another stretch where beats come from expectations moving lower.
trend
occupancy and advance ticket sales
Occupancy above 106% and record advance ticket sales are the cleanest proof demand is still there. If either softens, the thesis gets harder fast.
risk
fuel and operating disruptions
This business needs smooth execution. One bad operating headline can pressure costs and confidence at the same time.
Analyst rankings
short-term outlook
top 20%
Momentum score 2. In human-speak, analysts think this can outperform over the next year if bookings and margins keep holding up.
risk profile
high risk
Stability score 5 means real drawdown risk. You are getting upside potential because you are taking balance-sheet risk.
chart momentum
below average
Technical score 4 says the tape is still not fully convinced, even after the recovery from the post-earnings selloff.
earnings predictability
10 / 100
Translation: this company still misses the steady-compounder test by a wide margin.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
institutions have been net buying for 3 consecutive quarters — 302 buyers vs. 254 sellers in 3q2025. total institutional holdings: 0.4B shares. net buying for 3 quarters.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
$19
$61
$24
current price
$40
target midpoint · +64% from current · 3-5yr high: $40 (+65% · 14% ann'l return)
Want the deeper analysis?
The full deep dive: dcf model, scenario analysis, competitive moat breakdown, and quarterly tracking — everything on this page, taken further.
see plans from $5/moThe deep dive