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what it is
Neurocrine sells brain and hormone disorder drugs, led by INGREZZA, and uses that cash to fund its next wave of medicines.
how it gets paid
Last year Neurocrine Bio made $2.9B in revenue. INGREZZA was the main engine at $2.75B, or 95% of sales.
why it's growing
Revenue grew 21.4% last year. To wit, solid demand for neurocrine’s existing portfolio, led by ingrezza, a medicine used to treat tardive dyskinesia, helped drive double-digit revenue growth through last.
what just happened
Revenue hit $2.1B, but EPS landed at $1.88 versus the $2.23 analysts wanted.
At a glance
B++ balance sheet — above average — nothing keeping you up at night
35/100 earnings predictability — expect surprises
19.4x trailing p/e — priced about right
38.0% return on capital — every dollar works hard here
xvary composite: 51/100 — below average
What they do
Neurocrine sells brain and hormone disorder drugs, led by INGREZZA, and uses that cash to fund its next wave of medicines.
You usually buy biotech for a lab promise. Here, you get a business with a 33.8% net profit margin first. That margin means after every $100 in sales, about $33.80 stays as profit, so what: your downside is cushioned by real cash, not just trial headlines.
How they make money
$2.9B
annual revenue · their business grew +21.4% last year
INGREZZA
$2.75B
+21.4%
ORILISSA royalties
$0.08B
flat
ONGENTYS
$0.04B
flat
Milestone and license revenue
$0.03B
dn
The products that matter
flagship commercial product
Ingrezza
$2.9B revenue
it generated $2.9B last year and sits at the center of the company's visible commercial story on this page.
core
future growth source
Pipeline
beyond the $2.9B base
the page is thin on asset-level numbers beyond Ingrezza, and that is the point. Any rerating from here needs a second contributor investors can actually model.
next
what drives the stock
Revenue concentration
1 franchise · $2.9B
when one franchise anchors the whole $2.9B revenue base, your risk is not just slower growth. It is the market deciding this deserves a lower multiple than a broader pharma story.
the real issue
Key numbers
38.0%
return on capital
Return on capital → profit produced from invested money → so what: this business turns each $1 invested into $0.38 of operating profit, which is elite.
19.4x
trailing p/e
P/E → price versus past earnings → so what: you are not paying a wild multiple for a company with 21.4% revenue growth.
$4.0B
2029 revenue
Management and analysts need revenue to climb from $2.9B today to $4.0B by 2029, so what: the stock still needs new growth beyond INGREZZA.
21.6%
operating margin
Operating margin → profit after running the business → so what: Neurocrine keeps $21.60 from every $100 before interest and taxes.
Financial health
B++
strength
- balance sheet grade B++ — above average financial health
- risk rank 3 — safer than 50% of stocks
- price stability 55 / 100
- net profit margin 33.8% — keeps 34 cents of every dollar in revenue
- return on equity 38% — $0.38 profit for every $1 investors have put in
B++ — functional but not a standout on the balance sheet.
Total return vs. market
You invested $10,000 in NBIX 3 years ago → it's now worth $11,990.
The index would have given you $13,880.
source: institutional data · total return
What just happened
missed estimates
Revenue hit $2.1B, but EPS landed at $1.88 versus the $2.23 analysts wanted.
Revenue still grew 159% vs. prior year in the latest quarter, while annual revenue reached $2.9B, up 21.4%. The problem was not demand alone. It was that expectations ran ahead of the print.
$2.1B
revenue
$1.88
eps
21.6%
gross margin
the number that mattered
The 15.7% EPS miss mattered most because this stock trades on confidence in execution, and confidence does not like misses.
-
at the recent quotation, nbix stock has declined roughly 15% in value since our latenovember report.
-
at first glance, the investor retreat is a bit surprising.to wit, solid demand for neurocrine’s existing portfolio, led by ingrezza, a medicine used to treat tardive dyskinesia (td), helped drive double-digit revenue growth through last year, to $2.86 billion. share earnings of $6.39 is not comparable to the prior year’s result of $3.29 a share since we are now reporting earnings on an adjusted basis. nevertheless, the bottom-line performance was commendable, and the result of the healthy revenue stream and disciplined spending practices.
-
our two-year estimates are upbeat.
-
both the top and bottom lines are expected to advance at double-digit paces in 2026 and 2027.
-
growing patient demand for neurocrine’s existing medicines should help drive the momentum.
source: company earnings report, 2026
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What could go wrong
the top threat here is Ingrezza concentration. This is not a generic biotech warning. This specific page ties the visible commercial story, the 43.0% operating margin, and most of the narrative credibility to one franchise.
med
Ingrezza stops carrying the growth story
This page links the visible revenue base to one product. If Ingrezza slows, the company still has a business. The stock loses its cleanest argument.
$2.9B of annual revenue sits at the center of this debate, so any deceleration would hit the part investors care about most.
med
pipeline progress stays too thin to model
Biotech investors will pay for optionality when they can size it. This page cannot do that yet beyond saying the company needs something after the flagship franchise.
If the next leg of growth never becomes visible, the $3B FY2026 revenue estimate starts to look more like a line to defend than a platform to build from.
med
the multiple compresses even if execution stays merely fine
19.4x trailing earnings is reasonable, not distressed. That means the stock does not need a collapse to fall. It just needs investors to pay less for the same story.
NBIX turned $10,000 into $11,990 over three years while the index reached $13,880. Same period. Same starting point. The market has already shown you that decent business results do not guarantee decent stock results.
Because the visible commercial base is concentrated, you do not need a disaster to get hurt. Slower growth, thin pipeline clarity, and a lower multiple are enough.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
earnings
next earnings update
The next release matters because a 35/100 predictability score leaves room for sharp reactions even when the business itself looks fine.
trend
revenue pushing past $3B
The estimate is $3B for FY2026. Clearing it cleanly keeps the growth story intact. Missing it makes concentration the whole conversation.
risk
how much still comes back to Ingrezza
If each update still reads like one franchise plus future promise, the stock will keep trading like a concentrated biotech no matter how profitable it is.
metric
earnings predictability
35/100 is low for a company with this margin profile. If that score improves, investors can underwrite the story with more confidence.
Analyst rankings
short-term outlook
below average
momentum score 4 — analysts see below-average performance potential from here.
risk profile
average
stability score 3 — a middle-of-the-pack risk setup, not a bunker and not a rollercoaster.
chart momentum
top 20%
technical score 2 — in human-speak, the chart looks better than the fundamental ranking does.
earnings predictability
35 / 100
earnings are harder to model here, which usually means the stock reacts harder when new numbers land.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
institutions have been net buying for 2 consecutive quarters — 330 buyers vs. 269 sellers in 3q2025. total institutional holdings: 97.5M shares. net buying for 2 quarters.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
$101
$221
$124
current price
$161
target midpoint · +30% from current · 3-5yr high: $245 (+95% · 19% ann'l return)
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