Start here if you're new
what it is
Nebius builds AI computer infrastructure, plus cloud tools and career-services software.
how it gets paid
Last year Nebius N.V made $118M in revenue.
what just happened
Nebius missed by 175% last quarter, with EPS at -$0.99 versus -$0.36 expected.
At a glance
B+ balance sheet — decent shape, but not bulletproof
2.0% return on capital — nothing to write home about
-$1.00 fy2026 eps est
$2B fy2028 rev est
n/a operating margin
xvary composite: 55/100 — below average
What they do
Nebius builds AI computer infrastructure, plus cloud tools and career-services software.
Nebius sells GPU clusters (big pools of chips that train AI) and cloud tools. If your model sits there, moving it means moving data, software, and outage risk. A four-year Microsoft deal and about 1,400 employees say this is a small team chasing a huge job.
How they make money
$118M
annual revenue
total revenue
$118M
n/a
The products that matter
runs the expensive part of the thesis
Large-scale GPU clusters
core to the $118M revenue base
This is the hardware-heavy foundation behind the current business. If utilization improves and customers stick, this becomes the engine of the ramp. If not, it is just costly capacity.
compute core
sells access to ai computing
Cloud services
valuation leans on future scale
Cloud access is how you turn infrastructure into recurring revenue. The problem is visibility. At $118M today, you are still being asked to underwrite tomorrow's scale with limited segment proof.
scale thesis
tries to make the platform stickier
Developer tools and services
no segment revenue disclosed here
This is usually where infrastructure stories start looking more durable. The snapshot does not show what share of the $118M comes from this layer, so you are still early in the disclosure curve.
early-stage mix
Key numbers
$122
target price
That is 31% above $93.23, so the market still pays up for growth.
$118M
TTM revenue
You are buying a $24B company on $118M in sales.
-375.1%
operating margin
For every $1 sold, Nebius lost $3.75 at the operating line.
$4.9B
debt load
That is 17% of capital, so flexibility is not free.
Financial health
B+
strength
- balance sheet grade B+ — solid but not elite
- risk rank 3 — safer than 50% of stocks
- long-term debt $4.9B (17% of capital)
- net profit margin 8.8% — keeps 9 cents of every dollar in revenue
- return on equity 3% — $0.03 profit for every $1 investors have put in
B+ — functional but not a standout on the balance sheet.
Total return vs. market
You invested $10,000 in NBIS 3 years ago → it's now worth $49,220.
The index would have given you $13,920.
source: institutional data · total return
What just happened
missed estimates
Nebius missed by 175% last quarter, with EPS at -$0.99 versus -$0.36 expected.
Revenue sat at $118M TTM while the company kept pouring money into AI infrastructure. The operating margin was -375.1%, so the loss story is still the story.
$118M
revenue
$0.99
eps
n/a
operating margin
EPS surprise
The -175% EPS surprise matters because it shows the $118M revenue base is still too small for the spending plan.
-
shares of nebius group surged to a fresh all-time high price in midoctober, but have since cooled off a bit.the stock rose sharply in value over the course of 2025, largely due to news of the company’s $19-billion contract announcement with microsoft.
-
to reiterate, nebius is set to deliver ai infrastructure to microsoft over a four-year time frame.after a nearly eight-fold price advance from lows set back in early 2025, investors have pressed the pause button and locked in some profits.
-
the stock is down about 35% in value from its high-water mark.
-
another mega-deal has been inked.similar to the microsoft agreement, meta recently signed a five-year contract with nebius to provide access to its highperformance ai computing capacity and gpu infrastructure clusters.
-
the deal is valued around $3 billion.while these two deals should pave the way for additional contracts, at the moment, nebius’ revenue streams are highly concentrated between two major customers.
source: EDGAR and Yahoo Finance, 2026
Get this snapshot in your inbox
This page, delivered free — plus weekly updates when the numbers change. plain english, no spam.
weekly updates
earnings alerts
plain english
no spam
What could go wrong
NBIS is not facing abstract risk. It is facing arithmetic risk. The market value is $24B. Revenue is $118M. Debt is $4.9B. If the growth ramp looks slower or less durable than expected, the stock does not have much current-business support underneath it.
med
$4.9B of long-term debt is large next to a $118M revenue base
The B+ balance sheet keeps this from looking distressed. It does not make the debt trivial. Right now, the liability stack is big relative to the operating business you can actually measure.
If growth slips, debt stops being background context and becomes part of the core equity thesis.
med
the stock is priced for future scale before current scale is visible
A $24B market cap against $118M of annual revenue leaves little room for a slower AI buildout, weaker utilization, or delayed customer wins.
When expectations do most of the lifting, any reset in the growth story can hit the multiple fast.
med
the bull case leans heavily on the $2B FY2028 revenue target
That is a huge jump from the current $118M base, and this snapshot does not give you segment-level proof showing exactly which product line drives that ramp.
If the path to $2B starts slipping, the stock loses the number that currently justifies patience.
med
the earnings picture still does not read cleanly
You have a 28.0% operating margin, an 8.8% net margin, and a FY2026 EPS estimate of -$1.00. Those figures tell you the business has some economic shape, but not yet a simple per-share profit story.
Translation: even if some operating metrics look decent, shareholders may still be waiting for durable, visible earnings.
The key insight: this stock does not need perfect execution, but it does need credible execution soon. With a $24B valuation already in place, time is not free.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
metric
the gap between $118M today and the $2B FY2028 target
That gap is the entire story. If quarterly updates start making the ramp look realistic, the valuation debate gets easier. If not, you are left owning expensive hope.
risk
whether $4.9B in long-term debt stays contained
You do not need the debt to disappear. You need the revenue base to catch up before debt becomes the first question in every note and every earnings call.
trend
institutional buying staying net positive
372 buyers versus 179 sellers in 3q2025 is a strong vote of confidence. If that support fades, pay attention to what changed in the growth case.
calendar
whether the price target spread starts narrowing
The midpoint is $122, the low target is $105, and the high target is $160. Wide ranges are normal in story stocks. Narrower ranges would tell you the market is seeing the business more clearly.
Analyst rankings
risk profile
average
risk rank 3 — typical risk profile — neither especially safe nor risky.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
institutions have been net buying for 3 consecutive quarters — 372 buyers vs. 179 sellers in 3q2025. total institutional holdings: 97.3M shares. net buying for 3 quarters.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
$68
$176
$93
current price
$122
target midpoint · +31% from current · 3-5yr high: $160 (+70% · 15% ann'l return)
Want the deeper analysis?
The full deep dive: dcf model, scenario analysis, competitive moat breakdown, and quarterly tracking — everything on this page, taken further.
see plans from $5/moThe deep dive