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what it is
Nathan’s Famous sells hot dogs, branded food, and restaurant meals under the Nathan’s name.
how it gets paid
Last year S Famous made $148M in revenue. Branded Product Program was the main engine at $91.8M, or 62% of sales.
why it's growing
Revenue grew 6.9% last year. Sales rose 270% vs. prior year. EPS rose 456% vs. prior year.
what just happened
Revenue hit $127M, and EPS jumped to $4.17.
At a glance
B+ balance sheet — decent shape, but not bulletproof
65/100 earnings predictability — reasonably predictable
18.3x trailing p/e — priced about right
2.0% dividend yield — cash in your pocket every quarter
82.6% return on capital — a money-printing machine
xvary composite: 56/100 — below average
What they do
Nathan’s Famous sells hot dogs, branded food, and restaurant meals under the Nathan’s name.
If you own the brand, your logo already sits in 230 franchised locations. That includes 120 branded-menu sites across 17 states and 12 foreign countries. Franchise → someone else runs the store. Royalties → the brand gets paid. So what: you get reach without paying to build every box.
How they make money
$148M
annual revenue · their business grew +6.9% last year
Branded Product Program
$91.8M
+6.2%
Restaurant Operations
$40.0M
+4.0%
Franchise and Licensing
$16.2M
+2.0%
The products that matter
wholesale foodservice sales
Branded Product Program
$91.8M · 62% of revenue
it's the center of gravity at $91.8M, and the $5.3M increase from the prior period tells you the core brand still moves product.
62% of revenue
royalties on branded goods
Product Licensing & Other
$52.8M · 35.7% of revenue
this $52.8M stream is the asset-light part of the story — the name travels further than the restaurants do.
35.7% of revenue
restaurant royalties and fees
Franchise Operations
$3.4M · 2.3% of revenue
franchise revenue was just $3.4M for the 39-week period ending December 2025, which is why this is not really a restaurant turnaround story.
small but visible
Key numbers
$102.00
deal price
Smithfield offered $102.00 a share, so the stock has only 26 cents left to the finish line.
$148M
annual revenue
That is the size of the business you are buying, not a story stock with no sales.
25.4%
operating margin
Nathan’s keeps 25.4 cents of operating profit from every sales dollar, which is rich for a small brand.
82.6%
capital return
For every dollar tied up in the business, Nathan’s generated 82.6 cents of operating profit.
Financial health
B+
strength
- balance sheet grade B+ — solid but not elite
- risk rank 3 — safer than 50% of stocks
- price stability 75 / 100
- long-term debt $50M (11% of capital)
B+ — functional but not a standout on the balance sheet.
Total return vs. market
Return history isn't available for NATH right now.
source: institutional data · return history unavailable
What just happened
beat estimates
Revenue hit $127M, and EPS jumped to $4.17.
Sales rose 270% vs. prior year. EPS rose 456% vs. prior year. Gross margin held at 33.9%.
$37M
revenue
$4.17
eps
33.9%
gross margin
the number that mattered
The $127M quarter matters because it was 270% above last year, which shows the branded business still has pull.
source: company earnings report, 2026
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What could go wrong
the #1 risk here is smithfield's $102 cash merger failing or slipping, because that is now the reference point holding the stock near $102.
med
deal break risk
If the acquisition does not close, investors go back to valuing Nathan's on standalone fundamentals. That means a $148M revenue business, not a guaranteed $102 cash payout.
Impact: the current 0.3% upside disappears, and downside would be determined by where the market re-prices the operating business.
med
regulatory or procedural delay
The merger still depends on approvals and customary closing conditions. A delay matters more when the remaining spread is only $0.26.
Impact: the annualized return on the spread shrinks the longer the closing timeline drifts.
med
merger-related litigation
Monteverde Law opened an inquiry into the transaction on March 9, 2026. These cases often end in additional disclosures, but they can still add friction.
Impact: more paperwork, more time, and more room for the narrow spread to stop looking attractive.
med
pre-close operating slippage
Beef and other input costs still matter, and so does execution in the wholesale channel. The company reported $34.3M in latest-quarter revenue and $5.1M in operating income, so the business remains relevant until the deal is done.
Impact: weak results would not automatically kill the merger, but they could change how investors price the gap to $102.
A forced return to fundamentals would turn this from a merger spread back into a small branded food and royalty stock overnight.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
closing timeline
expected first-half 2026 close
The merger agreement points to a first-half 2026 close. If that wording changes, the spread probably widens before anything else does.
legal friction
merger inquiry from monteverde law
The March 9, 2026 inquiry is not unusual, but on a 0.3% spread you do not need unusual to matter. You just need delay.
operating check
quarterly revenue and operating income
Latest quarterly revenue was $34.3M and operating income was $5.1M. As long as those numbers stay orderly, the business is not giving the buyer a new reason to hesitate.
spread behavior
$101.74 versus $102
That $0.26 gap tells you more than most ratios right now. If it widens without new information, the market is signaling fresh doubt.
Analyst rankings
earnings predictability
65 / 100
in human-speak, the operating business is fairly steady, but the stock is no longer trading on quarterly precision alone.
price stability
75 / 100
That stability partly reflects deal anchoring. A stock sitting $0.26 below a signed cash bid usually does not behave like a normal small cap.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
institutional ownership data for NATH is being compiled.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
n/a
n/a
$102
current price
n/a
target midpoint · n/a from current
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