Start here if you're new
what it is
MaxLinear makes chips that move internet, cable, and data center signals from one place to another.
how it gets paid
Last year Maxlinear made $468M in revenue. broadband access was the main engine at $164M, or 35% of sales.
why it's growing
Revenue grew 29.7% last year. Revenue growth of 162% mattered most because a turnaround with flat demand is just accounting.
what just happened
MaxLinear printed $331M in quarterly revenue and matched EPS expectations at $0.19.
At a glance
B balance sheet — gets the job done, barely
15/100 earnings predictability — expect surprises
53.1x trailing p/e — you're paying up for this one
12.5% return on capital — nothing to write home about
xvary composite: 38/100 — weak
What they do
MaxLinear makes chips that move internet, cable, and data center signals from one place to another.
MaxLinear sits in the ugly plumbing of connectivity. If your network gear needs RF and mixed-signal chips, swapping vendors is slow because the parts must work with your whole system. That helps explain why gross margin reached 56.5% on $468 million of annual revenue, based on company filings.
How they make money
$468M
annual revenue · their business grew +29.7% last year
broadband access
$164M
connected home
$117M
data center interconnect
$94M
metro and long-haul infrastructure
$70M
other mixed-signal products
$23M
The products that matter
designs and sells infrastructure chips
Broadband and Data Center Chips
$468M revenue · entire business
It produced the full $468M shown here. Helpful for clarity. Brutal for risk. One engine powers the whole model, so one slowdown hits the whole page.
100% of revenue
Key numbers
$24
18-month target
Target price → estimated share value in 18 months → so what: that sits 51% above the current $15.94 price.
53.1x
trailing p/e
P/E → price compared with trailing earnings → so what: you are paying a recovery multiple before the recovery is fully proven.
27.1%
operating margin
Operating margin → profit after day-to-day costs → so what: the business still loses money at the operating line.
$124M
long-term debt
Debt is 8% of capital, which means the balance sheet is not the main problem. Demand and execution are.
Financial health
B
strength
- balance sheet grade B — adequate — nothing special
- risk rank 4 — safer than 20% of stocks
- price stability 5 / 100
- long-term debt $124M (8% of capital)
- net profit margin 20.0% — keeps 20 cents of every dollar in revenue
- return on equity 15% — $0.15 profit for every $1 investors have put in
B — functional but not a standout on the balance sheet.
Total return vs. market
You invested $10,000 in MXL 3 years ago → it's now worth $4,620.
The index would have given you $14,540.
source: institutional data · total return
What just happened
beat estimates
MaxLinear printed $331M in quarterly revenue and matched EPS expectations at $0.19.
The revenue line did the heavy lifting, up 162% vs. prior year. EPS matched estimates exactly, which is less dramatic than the sales rebound but cleaner than a miss.
$331M
revenue
$0.19
eps
56.5%
gross margin
the number that mattered
Revenue growth of 162% mattered most because a turnaround with flat demand is just accounting. This one had actual sales behind it.
-
maxlinear’s turnaround will likely continue in 2026.it should be noted that 2024 was a rather difficult campaign for the company, resulting in a loss per share.
-
the tides began to turn last year, though, and we look for that momentum to continue in 2026.
-
still, it should be noted, that revenue growth, while strong relative to the prior year, might well be more difficult to come by on a consecutive-quarter basis.hence, any hiccups along the way might result in pressure on the share price, particularly given its above-market p/e multiple. the company’s growth this year is likely to be driven by a strategic shift towards higher-margined infrastructure markets, particularly ai (artificial intelligence), data centers, and wireless technology.
-
we expect the momentum to continue here from 2027 onward.
-
the same factors that are likely to fuel earnings gains this year are poised to continue in 2027.the recent geopolitical conflict in the middle east is a factor that warrants close attention, though.
source: company earnings report, 2026
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What could go wrong
the #1 risk is the revenue rebound looking better on a chart than it does in the income statement. At $468M of annual revenue and just 15.0% operating margin, this business does not have much room for a sloppy recovery.
med
customer concentration without segment padding
The current story assumes key broadband and data center customers keep ordering. If a major design win slips or a large customer pulls back, this snapshot shows no second revenue bucket ready to soften the blow.
With only one reported $468M revenue line here, a customer stumble hits the whole thesis, not a side segment.
med
profit recovery falling short
The company beat estimates last quarter, but it still posted -$0.52 EPS. Better than worse is not the same thing as sustainably profitable.
If losses linger, the $0.85 FY2026 EPS setup and $1.15 FY2027 estimate start looking optimistic instead of reasonable.
med
manufacturing and supply-chain dependence
Chip companies do not control every step of production. Capacity issues, component shortages, or timing delays can pressure delivery and economics even when demand is intact.
That matters more when operating margin is 15.0%. You do not have endless cushion for mistakes.
med
geopolitical shocks hitting a volatile stock
Existing commentary already flagged geopolitical conflict as something to watch. Semiconductor supply chains and end markets are global, so trade friction or regional conflict can show up quickly.
The stock's 5/100 price stability score tells you the shares are already built to feel those shocks.
If demand or execution stumbles, the same $468M revenue base supporting the rebound story becomes the problem, and 15.0% operating margin is not much shock absorber.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
metric
$565M revenue estimate
That is the number tied to the recovery case. If revenue stalls well short of it, the stock stops looking early and starts looking expensive.
trend
operating margin at 15.0%
You need more than sales growth. Margin tells you whether the rebound is becoming earnings power or just passing through the top line.
risk
69 buyers vs. 81 sellers
Institutions were net sellers in 4q2025. That is not a collapse in sponsorship, but it is the market's way of saying prove it first.
calendar
the path from -$0.52 to $1.15
Last quarter's loss and the FY2027 estimate are far apart. Each earnings report tells you whether that bridge is being built or just modeled.
Analyst rankings
short-term outlook
below average
momentum score 4 — in human-speak, analysts think this stock could lag in the near term.
risk profile
below average
stability score 4 — this is more volatile than most stocks, so you should expect wider swings.
chart momentum
top 20%
technical score 2 — the chart has improved even while the business still needs to prove the earnings recovery.
earnings predictability
15 / 100
Forecasting this company is hard. That low score means surprises are part of the package, not an accident.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
69 buyers vs. 81 sellers in 4q2025.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
$10
$38
$16
current price
$24
target midpoint · +51% from current · 3-5yr high: $35 (+120% · 22% ann'l return)
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