How does mueller water make money?

mueller water generates $1.4B in annual revenue (annual revenue · their business grew +8.7% last year).

What is MWA's XVARY composite score?

mueller water (MWA) has an XVARY composite score of 65/100, rated average. This combines growth, value, risk, and momentum factors.

MWA — mueller water stock analysis

Start here if you're new

what it is

Mueller sells the hardware and software cities use to move, measure, and stop losing water.

how it gets paid

Last year Mueller Water made $1.4B in revenue. iron gate and specialty valves was the main engine at $0.45B, or 32% of sales.

why it's growing
Revenue grew 8.7% last year. Gross margin at 37.6% mattered most because it explains how 5% sales growth turned into 23% EPS growth.

what just happened

Mueller delivered $318M in quarterly revenue and $0.27 in EPS, with profit growing faster than sales.

At a glance

B+ balance sheet — decent shape, but not bulletproof

75/100 earnings predictability — reasonably predictable

19.0x trailing p/e — priced about right

1.2% dividend yield — cash in your pocket every quarter

14.0% return on capital — nothing to write home about

xvary composite: 65/100 — average

What they do

Mueller sells the hardware and software cities use to move, measure, and stop losing water.

Your city cannot improvise a water system. Once Mueller's hydrants, valves, and meters are in the ground, replacing them is expensive, slow, and politically annoying. That installed base helped support a 25.5% operating margin and 18% return on equity in the latest coverage.

industrials mid-cap water-infrastructure municipal-spending replacement-cycle

How they make money

$1.4B annual revenue · their business grew +8.7% last year

iron gate and specialty valves

$0.45B

brass products

$0.35B

fire hydrants

$0.28B

metering systems

$0.20B

leak detection and pipe assessment services

$0.12B

The products that matter

municipal fire protection hardware

Fire Hydrants

~65% of revenue

this is the center of gravity. roughly 65% of the $1.4B business comes from hydrants, so your investment case starts here whether you like it or not.

share leader

water flow control hardware

Iron Gate Valves

part of the remaining ~35%

these products broaden the municipal water footprint beyond hydrants. The page data is thin on exact segment dollars, so we are not pretending otherwise.

network fit

brass and connection products

Brass Products

part of the remaining ~35%

brass products matter because they keep Mueller tied to broader water infrastructure spending, not just one hydrant order cycle. But with no disclosed revenue split here, this is support cast, not lead actor.

supporting mix

Key numbers

25.5%

operating margin

Operating margin → money left after running the business → so what: Mueller turns a municipal hardware niche into a very profitable machine.

$1.4B

annual revenue

This is not a tiny project supplier. You are looking at a scaled infrastructure vendor with real replacement demand.

14.0%

return on capital

Return on capital → profit earned on invested money → so what: management is not lighting cash on fire to grow.

19.0x

trailing p/e

P/E → how many years of current earnings you are paying for → so what: the stock is not cheap unless margins hold.

Financial health

B+

strength

balance sheet grade B+ — solid but not elite
risk rank 3 — safer than 50% of stocks
price stability 60 / 100
long-term debt $450M (10% of capital)
net profit margin 15.5% — keeps 16 cents of every dollar in revenue
return on equity 18% — $0.18 profit for every $1 investors have put in

B+ — functional but not a standout on the balance sheet.

Total return vs. market

You invested $10,000 in MWA 3 years ago → it's now worth $24,210.

The index would have given you $13,920.

same period. same starting point. MWA beat the market by $10,290.

source: institutional data · total return

What just happened

beat estimates

Mueller delivered $318M in quarterly revenue and $0.27 in EPS, with profit growing faster than sales.

Latest-quarter revenue rose 5% vs. prior year while EPS climbed 23%. Gross margin reached 37.6%, which tells you pricing and mix did more work than volume.

$318M

revenue

$0.27

eps

37.6%

gross margin

the number that mattered

Gross margin at 37.6% mattered most because it explains how 5% sales growth turned into 23% EPS growth.

mueller water products has its next leader.
indeed, in early november, the atlanta-based maker of fire hydrants and iron gate valves announced that paul mcandrew will succeed marietta zakas as chief executive of the company, effective february 9th.
following executive stints at textron and emerson, the 51-year-old ceo-to-be joined mueller in 2022, overseeing the company’s global manufacturing and supply chain before ultimately ascending to the roles of president and chief operating officer.

in order to smooth the change at the top, his predecessor has agreed to stay on as a special adviser through december, 2026. during her tenure as ceo, which will ultimately span about 30 months of a two-decade-long career at mueller, ms. zakas is presiding over a manufacturing overhaul, which should yield further profit-margin expansion upon its completion.
the fiscal-2026 outlook that the company provided on november 6th was underwhelming. (fiscal years end september 30th.) to wit, the $1.45 billion–$1.47 billion target range for sales implies a fairly modest 1%–3% top-line advance this year, compared to fiscal 2025’s nearly 9% rise.
underpinning management’s less-positive stance is an expectation that residential construction demand will decline in the high single digits, on a percentage basis.

source: company earnings report, 2026

What could go wrong

the #1 risk is municipal water infrastructure spending slowing after a strong run.

∘

med

hydrant concentration

roughly 65% of revenue comes from fire hydrants. That market share is a strength until one product line becomes most of the business.

if municipal orders pause, a large chunk of the $1.4B revenue base feels it at once.

∘

med

residential construction softness

management already pointed to weaker residential construction demand. This is the reminder that not all Mueller demand comes from steady public infrastructure budgets.

softer housing activity would pressure the parts of the portfolio outside core municipal replacement demand.

∘

med

CEO transition execution

a new CEO took over in late 2025. Even with the former CEO staying on as adviser through december 2026, transitions create room for pricing mistakes, inventory misreads, or capital allocation drift.

this matters less for one quarter than for the next several. Industrial stocks can look stable until execution slips.

∘

med

guidance credibility

the market already heard underwhelming fiscal 2026 commentary. Another weak outlook would matter more than another routine beat.

the stock trades at 19.0x trailing earnings. That multiple does not leave much room for repeated expectation resets.

combined, these risks sit directly on top of a business where roughly 65% of sales come from one category and overall revenue reached $1.4B last year.

source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis

Pay attention to

earnings

next earnings on may 04, 2026

watch whether management can pair another clean quarter with a less cautious outlook. One without the other will not do much.

metric

EPS conversion from revenue growth

revenue grew 36.3% last year and the latest quarter delivered $0.27 EPS. You want to see profit keep following sales, not lagging it.

risk

municipal demand versus housing softness

this business sits between public infrastructure and construction activity. If both soften together, the concentration story gets louder.

trend

early signals under the new CEO

pricing discipline, order commentary, and capital allocation will tell you whether this is a continuity handoff or the start of a new operating playbook.

Analyst rankings

short-term outlook

top 20%

momentum score 2 — analysts expect above-average price performance in the year ahead. in human-speak, they like the setup more than most stocks.

risk profile

average

stability score 3 — neither a bunker stock nor a rollercoaster.

chart momentum

average

technical score 3 — the chart is not sending a dramatic message either way.

earnings predictability

75 / 100

management has been reasonably consistent. You usually do not wake up to a total surprise here.

source: institutional data

Institutional activity

institutions have been net buying for 2 consecutive quarters — 196 buyers vs. 173 sellers in 3q2025. total institutional holdings: 0.2B shares. net buying for 2 quarters.

source: institutional data · 1q2025-3q2025

source: institutional data

Price targets

3-5 year target range

$19 $43

$25 current price

$31 target midpoint · +25% from current · 3-5yr high: $45 (+80% · 17% ann'l return)

source: institutional data · analyst targets

The deep dive

MWA

xvary deep dive

mwa

the full analysis is in the works.

what you'll get

dcf valuation model

bull / base / bear scenarios

competitive moat breakdown

quarterly earnings tracker

operating model projections

risk matrix with kill criteria

original price target + conviction

updated with every earnings

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