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what it is
Murphy USA sells fuel, snacks, and convenience-store staples through 1,757 locations across 27 states.
how it gets paid
Last year Murphy Usa made $19.4B in revenue. retail fuel was the main engine at $14.4B, or 74% of sales.
why growth slowed
Revenue fell 4.2% last year. The 18.07% EPS beat matters most because this stock lives on execution.
what just happened
Murphy USA posted $7.97 in EPS versus a $6.75 estimate, an 18.07% beat.
At a glance
B+ balance sheet — decent shape, but not bulletproof
60/100 earnings predictability — reasonably predictable
17.7x trailing p/e — the market's not buying it — or you found a deal
1.1% dividend yield — cash in your pocket every quarter
18.0% return on capital — nothing to write home about
xvary composite: 65/100 — average
What they do
Murphy USA sells fuel, snacks, and convenience-store staples through 1,757 locations across 27 states.
This is a scale-and-discipline story. Murphy USA runs 1,757 locations, including 1,601 Murphy USA or Murphy Express stores and 156 QuickChek sites. You are betting that a chain built around low prices and tight costs can turn a 5.0% operating margin into an 18.0% return on capital, which means each dollar tied up in the business still works hard.
How they make money
$19.4B
annual revenue · their business grew -4.2% last year
retail fuel
$14.4B
5.0%
convenience merchandise
$3.1B
+2.0%
quickchek stores
$1.3B
+3.0%
wholesale fuel and supply
$0.5B
4.0%
other
$0.1B
0.0%
The products that matter
fuel and convenience retail
Retail Motor Fuel
$21.5B revenue · +4.2%
this is the whole story in the current snapshot. the business produced $21.5B of revenue last year, and the page does not break out merchandise as a separate revenue line. that thin disclosure matters because margin mix is the real earnings lever here.
100% of revenue shown
Key numbers
18.0%
return on capital
Return on capital → profit produced from the money tied up in the business → so what: Murphy squeezes strong returns from a plain old gas-station model.
5.0%
operating margin
Operating margin → what is left after running the stores → so what: this is a tiny-margin business, so execution has to stay sharp.
$2.2B
long-term debt
Long-term debt → money owed over many years → so what: 22% of capital is manageable, but debt matters more when net margin is only 2.2%.
17.7x
trailing p/e
P/E → stock price divided by past earnings → so what: you are not paying a wild multiple for a company expected to earn $25.50 a share in 2026.
Financial health
B+
strength
- balance sheet grade B+ — solid but not elite
- risk rank 3 — safer than 50% of stocks
- price stability 65 / 100
- long-term debt $2.2B (22% of capital)
- net profit margin 2.2% — keeps 2 cents of every dollar in revenue
- return on equity 62% — $0.62 profit for every $1 investors have put in
B+ — functional but not a standout on the balance sheet.
Total return vs. market
You invested $10,000 in MUSA 3 years ago → it's now worth $15,840.
The index would have given you $14,770.
source: institutional data · total return
What just happened
beat estimates
Murphy USA posted $7.97 in EPS versus a $6.75 estimate, an 18.07% beat.
Quarterly EPS came in above expectations even as the broader backdrop stayed competitive. The bigger picture still looks mixed, with full-year 2025 EPS of $23.50 down from $24.11 in 2024.
$14.6B
revenue
$7.97
eps
18.07%
eps surprise
the number that mattered
The 18.07% EPS beat matters most because this stock lives on execution, and Murphy just showed it can still out-earn expectations in a tough market.
-
murphy usa (musa) probably closed out 2025 with mixed results.
-
we think the gas station and convenience store operator’s top line settled at $19.5 billion for the full year, roughly 4% lower than the 2024 figure.
-
for much of the past year, the company has been grappling with a competitive environment, owing to lower volumes and tough pricing at the mainstay fuel business.meanwhile, musa’s merchandise segment has been making healthy contributions, aided by strength in the nicotine and non-nicotine categories.
-
profits probably settled at $23.50 per share for 2025, representing a soft comparison.
-
results ought to improve in 2026.
source: company earnings report, 2026
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What could go wrong
Murphy USA lives on tiny margins. That works right up until fuel spreads tighten and there is nowhere to hide. If you own this stock, you are underwriting execution in a business that keeps just 2.3% of sales as profit.
high
fuel demand and margin volatility
all $21.5B of revenue shown here runs through fuel retail. if gallons sold weaken or per-gallon economics narrow, earnings feel it fast because there is very little profit cushion.
2.3% net margin means a small operating slip has an outsized EPS effect.
med
merchandise stops offsetting fuel pressure
recent commentary said nicotine and non-nicotine categories were healthier. that is useful, but it also tells you the support beams. if those categories cool off, one of the few offsets to weaker fuel economics disappears.
the business gets more exposed to fuel cycles when inside-store mix stops helping.
med
competition turns a cheap multiple into the right multiple
gasoline is a commodity. more than 1,700 locations create reach, but they do not let Murphy name its own price. if local competitors get aggressive, volume can hold while profit per gallon erodes.
17.7x trailing earnings looks calm only if margins stop deteriorating.
low
balance-sheet flexibility is decent, not limitless
$2.2B of long-term debt and a B+ balance sheet are manageable numbers. they also mean this is not a zero-risk balance sheet if operating conditions worsen while the company still has to fund the network.
22% of capital in long-term debt matters more when profit margins are already measured in pennies.
What would change our mind: if FY2026 EPS fails to rebuild toward $25.50 while revenue sits near the $20B estimate, the "cheap retailer" case breaks. Then you are not buying temporary softness. You are paying a fair price for a structurally lower earnings base.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
earnings
next quarterly EPS versus $25.50 full-year pacing
one quarter will not settle the story, but you want to see profit rebuild fast enough to support the FY2026 EPS estimate. that is the number the stock is leaning on.
margin
net margin holding above the current 2.3%
here's the thing: when your net margin is measured in pennies, small changes in fuel economics do outsized damage.
trend
$20B revenue estimate versus the current $21.5B base
if sales drift down while margins fail to recover, the low-multiple argument gets weaker fast. lower revenue is fine only if each dollar gets more profitable.
risk
merchandise strength in nicotine and non-nicotine categories
recent commentary says those categories helped. if they stop helping, fuel volatility has fewer offsets and the whole earnings bridge gets shakier.
Analyst rankings
short-term outlook
top 20%
momentum score 2 — analysts expect above-average price performance in the year ahead. in human-speak, they think the recovery setup still has room.
risk profile
average
stability score 3 — typical risk profile. not a bunker stock, not a chaos stock.
chart momentum
bottom 5%
technical score 5 — the chart has been weak. narrative and tape are telling different stories right now.
earnings predictability
60 / 100
earnings are reasonably forecastable, but fuel and merchandise swings keep this from being an autopilot story.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
institutions have been net selling for 3 consecutive quarters — 228 buyers vs. 228 sellers in 3q2025. total institutional holdings: 16.1M shares. net selling for 3 quarters.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
$342
$694
$417
current price
$518
target midpoint · +24% from current · 3-5yr high: $765 (+85% · 17% ann'l return)
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