Start here if you're new
what it is
Murphy Oil drills for crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids in the U.S. and Canada.
how it gets paid
Last year Murphy Oil made $2.7B in revenue.
why it's growing
Revenue grew 338.7% last year. The bottom line was hurt by a large noncash impairment charge related to the dalmation field in the gulf of america.
what just happened
The latest quarter was a miss: revenue fell to $613M and adjusted EPS landed far below what analysts expected.
At a glance
B+ balance sheet — decent shape, but not bulletproof
10/100 earnings predictability — expect surprises
37.8x trailing p/e — you're paying up for this one
4.4% dividend yield — cash in your pocket every quarter
7.0% return on capital — nothing to write home about
xvary composite: 53/100 — below average
What they do
Murphy Oil drills for crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids in the U.S. and Canada.
This is a scale and asset-life business. Murphy ended 2024 with 436.2 mboe of proved reserves, which means years of saleable hydrocarbons already on the books. If oil prices cooperate, your existing wells can throw off cash fast; if they do not, the same asset base turns into a waiting room.
How they make money
$2.7B
annual revenue · their business grew +338.7% last year
total revenue
$2.7B
+338.7%
The products that matter
drills and sells hydrocarbons
Oil and Natural Gas Production
$2.7B revenue · 100% of the business
it's the entire company: $2.7B in revenue with a 13.1% net profit margin. that makes the story simple, but it also means there is nowhere else to hide when the cycle turns.
100% of revenue
Key numbers
37.8x
trailing p/e
Price-to-earnings ratio -> how much investors pay for each dollar of profit -> you are paying a growth multiple for a year when profit collapsed.
4.4%
dividend yield
Dividend yield -> annual cash payout as a share of stock price -> you are being paid to wait, but not enough to erase a 30% drawdown.
11.2%
operating margin
Operating margin -> profit left after running the business -> a thin cushion matters when commodity prices swing.
$1.4B
long-term debt
Long-term debt -> money the company owes over years -> debt is fine until lower oil prices make yesterday's leverage feel larger.
Financial health
B+
strength
- balance sheet grade B+ — solid but not elite
- risk rank 3 — safer than 50% of stocks
- price stability 25 / 100
- long-term debt $1.4B (24% of capital)
- net profit margin 14.3% — keeps 14 cents of every dollar in revenue
- return on equity 8% — $0.08 profit for every $1 investors have put in
B+ — functional but not a standout on the balance sheet.
Total return vs. market
You invested $10,000 in MUR 3 years ago → it's now worth $8,570.
The index would have given you $14,770.
source: institutional data · total return
What just happened
missed estimates
The latest quarter was a miss: revenue fell to $613M and adjusted EPS landed far below what analysts expected.
Latest-quarter revenue was $613M, down 8% vs. prior year, while consensus shows EPS of $0.14 versus a $0.49 estimate, a 71.43% miss. The 2025 quarterly path also got uglier as EPS slid from $0.50 in Q1 to negative $0.02 in Q3 before a small rebound.
$613M
revenue
$0.14
eps
71.43%
eps surprise
profit collapse
Full-year EPS fell to $0.85 from $2.72 in 2024, which is a 68.8% drop and the clearest reason this stock feels expensive.
-
murphy oil corp. likely put in a lackluster performance for 2025.
-
during the september quarter, the company slipped into the red, posting a deficit of $0.02 a share.the bottom line was hurt by a large noncash impairment charge related to the dalmation field in the gulf of america, following the company’s decision to stop investment in future dalmation wells in favor of projects with higher value potential.
-
third-quarter sales fell 3% from the year-ago figure.
-
for the full year, we expect profits tumbled approximately 70%, on a 12% top-line decline.
-
despite the soft showing, murphy made progress on its restructuring efforts.
source: company earnings report, 2026
Get this snapshot in your inbox
This page, delivered free — plus weekly updates when the numbers change. plain english, no spam.
weekly updates
earnings alerts
plain english
no spam
What could go wrong
the #1 risk is oil and gas price weakness hitting an undiversified upstream revenue base.
med
commodity price exposure
Murphy has one business and one revenue stream: producing and selling hydrocarbons. If oil and gas prices move the wrong way, there is no higher-margin segment to offset it.
This risk touches 100% of the $2.7B revenue base.
med
project write-downs and execution misses
The Dalmatian impairment already showed how one field decision can distort the quarter. In upstream, disappointing wells and abandoned development plans do not stay isolated for long.
The September quarter moved to a $0.02 per-share loss after the impairment charge.
med
earnings volatility overwhelming the value case
A 4.4% yield looks attractive until profits wobble. Murphy's 10/100 earnings predictability and latest $0.08 quarter tell you estimate risk is part of the package.
Weak earnings can keep the stock trapped even if revenue holds near the $613M quarterly level.
Put it together and you get a company where recent weakness, field-specific charges, and commodity exposure all flow through the same income statement.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
metric
can revenue reach the $3B estimate
Murphy did $2.7B last year. The easiest way to tell whether the recovery story is intact is whether that top line can move toward the $3B target.
trend
quarterly EPS after the $0.08 print
One weak quarter is noise. A string of weak quarters is the thesis. Watch whether earnings rebound from $0.08 or stay pinned near trough levels.
risk
more impairment-style surprises
The Dalmatian charge was a reminder that asset-level decisions can suddenly change the story. In a 10/100 predictability stock, these surprises matter.
calendar
institutional flow next quarter
3q2025 showed 157 buyers against 190 sellers. If that flips, sentiment is improving. If it does not, the big money is still trimming.
Analyst rankings
short-term outlook
average
momentum score 3 — in human-speak, nobody sees a clear short-term edge here.
risk profile
average
stability score 3 — this sits near the middle of the market on risk, though the 25 / 100 price stability score says the ride can still feel rough.
chart momentum
top 20%
technical score 2 — analysts expect better price action than most stocks in the year ahead. in human-speak: they like the chart more than the business quality.
earnings predictability
10 / 100
earnings visibility is weak. You should expect larger-than-normal estimate misses in a company this exposed to commodity swings and one-off charges.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
157 buyers vs. 190 sellers in 3q2025. total institutional holdings: 0.1B shares.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
$22
$51
$32
current price
$37
target midpoint · +15% from current · 3-5yr high: $55 (+70% · 18% ann'l return)
Want the deeper analysis?
The full deep dive: dcf model, scenario analysis, competitive moat breakdown, and quarterly tracking — everything on this page, taken further.
see plans from $5/moThe deep dive