MTW — Manitowoc Co. · XVARY Snapshot

XVARY Composite Score

38

/ 100

Weak

Combines growth, value, risk, and momentum factors into a single institutional-grade score.

Start here if you're new

What it is

Manitowoc makes cranes and lifting equipment for construction sites worldwide.

How it gets paid

Last year Manitowoc made $2.2B in revenue. Aftermarket and non-new machine sales was the main engine at $0.69B, or 31% of sales.

Why it's growing
Revenue grew 2.9% last year. The $0.26 EPS print mattered most because the business still only posted 18.6% gross margin.

What just happened

Manitowoc missed by 10.3% as EPS came in at $0.26 versus $0.29 expected.

At a Glance

B balance sheet — gets the job done, barely

20/100 earnings predictability — expect surprises

37.5x trailing p/e — you're paying up for this one

5.5% return on capital — nothing to write home about

$1.15 fy2027 eps est

XVARY composite: 38/100 — weak

What They Do

Manitowoc makes cranes and lifting equipment for construction sites worldwide.

You do not replace a crane maker with 4,800 employees because the job site feels bored. Manitowoc had $690M in non-new machine sales, so your machine keeps paying for parts and service after the first sale.

industrials small-cap capital-goods construction cranes

How They Make Money

$2.2B annual revenue · their business grew +2.9% last year

Aftermarket and non-new machine sales

$0.69B

+10.0%

Lattice-boom cranes

$0.58B

0.0%

Tower cranes

$0.52B

0.0%

Mobile telescopic cranes and boom trucks

$0.41B

0.0%

The Products That Matter

Heavy-lift crane systems

Lattice-boom cranes

part of a $2.2B business

these are core machines in the same $2.2B revenue base, and demand rises or falls with large construction and infrastructure projects.

cyclical demand

Vertical construction equipment

Tower cranes

18.6% gross margin

in a business keeping 18.6% of revenue after direct costs, pricing discipline matters because there is not much room for mistakes.

thin cushion

Mobile lifting equipment

Mobile telescopic cranes

1.9% net margin

when the company keeps about 2 cents of every sales dollar, product mix and manufacturing execution do the heavy lifting.

execution story

Key Numbers

37.5x

trailing p/e

You pay 37.5 times last year's profit for a business with 1.9% net margin.

$2.2B

annual sales

This is a $2.2B business, so the $475M market cap is not a typo.

18.6%

gross margin

That leaves a thin cushion against steel, freight, and pricing pressure.

$480M

long-term debt

Debt equals 50% of capital, so balance sheet mistakes cost real money.

Financial Health

B

Strength

balance sheet grade B — adequate — nothing special
risk rank 4 — safer than 20% of stocks
price stability 20 / 100
long-term debt $480M (50% of capital)
net profit margin 1.9% — keeps 2 cents of every dollar in revenue
return on equity 6% — $0.06 profit for every $1 investors have put in

B — functional but not a standout on the balance sheet.

Total Return vs. Market

You invested $10000 in MTW 3 years ago → it's now worth $10180.

The index would have given you $14770.

same period. same starting point. MTW trailed the market by $4,590.

source: institutional data · total return

What Just Happened

missed estimates

Manitowoc missed by 10.3% as EPS came in at $0.26 versus $0.29 expected.

Revenue was $1.6B, and gross margin was 18.6%. Sales held up, but profit did not.

$1.6B

revenue

$0.26

eps

18.6%

gross margin

the number that mattered

The $0.26 EPS print mattered most because the business still only posted 18.6% gross margin.

Manitowoc probably closed 2025 with a strong performance in the fourth quarter. (the company was scheduled to release december-interim results after we went to press with this report.) healthy overall demand from the americas and tower cranes across europe enabled the manufacturer to generate a from a year ago 16% order increase, to $490 million, in the september period.
The influx of business resulted in a nearly 5% backlog gain, to roughly $665 million.

good health in these countries, when combined with progress under the cranes+50 strategy, is helping manitowoc to mitigate the negative impact of tariffs.
Specifically, the 50% tariff on steel likely added $44 million in costs during 2025.
Management expects defensive measures to offset 80%-90% of these costs.
Momentum will likely accelerate in 2026.

business in north america stands to benefit from the fact that dealer inventories surrounding various crane products are modest.

source: company earnings report, 2026

What Could Go Wrong

The top risk is tariffs and input-cost inflation in crane manufacturing.

!

High

Tariffs on global equipment inputs

mar 6, 2026 — investors reacted to a 15% global tariff. for a company with 18.6% gross margin, that can squeeze profitability fast.

current flagged exposure: $220M–$330M of revenue

∘

Med

Supply chain disruption and higher input costs

feb 18, 2026 — the annual filing called out increased input costs and supply chain disruption. with only a 1.9% net margin, there is not much buffer.

current flagged exposure: ~$220M of revenue

∘

Med

Thin margins meeting meaningful debt

MTW carries $480M of long-term debt against a $475M market cap. if revenue softens or margins slip below 1.9%, the balance sheet stops looking merely adequate.

balance-sheet pressure is tied to 50% of capital in long-term debt

based on the current risk flags, roughly $220M–$330M of revenue is exposed if tariffs, input costs, and execution pressure hit at the same time.

Source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis

Pay Attention To

Metric

1.9% net margin

this is the whole story. if MTW cannot keep more than about 2 cents of every revenue dollar, the valuation discount will keep making sense.

Trend

The path from $2.2B to $3B in revenue

the street sees that jump by fy2029. revenue growth matters, but only if it comes with better margins than the business shows today.

Risk

Tariffs and input costs

the recent 15% global tariff headline is not abstract. an 18.6% gross margin business feels cost inflation quickly.

Calendar

The next earnings print

with 20/100 earnings predictability, each quarterly release matters more than usual. this is not a set-it-and-forget-it industrial name.

Analyst Rankings

earnings predictability

20 / 100

earnings are hard to model here. in human-speak, analysts do not trust this company to deliver smooth quarters.

risk rank

4

that places MTW on the riskier side of the market. you are not buying this for stability.

price stability

20 / 100

the stock price has not been especially stable. the operating business and the share chart tell the same story.

Source: institutional data

Institutional Activity

63 buyers vs. 83 sellers in 3q2025. total institutional holdings: 26.7M shares.

source: institutional data · 1q2025-3q2025

Source: institutional data

Price Targets

3-5 year target range

$4 $18

$13 Current price

$11 Target midpoint · 16% from current · 3-5yr high: $25 (+90% · 18% ann'l return)

source: institutional data · analyst targets

The Deep Dive

MTW

XVARY Deep Dive

mtw

The full analysis is in the works.

What you'll get

DCF valuation model

Bull / base / bear scenarios

Competitive moat breakdown

Quarterly earnings tracker

Operating model projections

Risk matrix with kill criteria

Original price target + conviction

Updated with every earnings

Free · no spam · you'll be first to read it

Weak

Get this snapshot in your inbox

Want the deeper analysis?