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what it is
MACOM makes chips for 3 markets: telecom, data centers, and industrial & defense.
how it gets paid
Last year Macom Technology made $967M in revenue.
why it's growing
Revenue grew 32.6% last year. EDGAR shows $0.64 EPS, while Yahoo consensus logged $0.59 against $0.91 expected.
what just happened
MACOM posted $272M in revenue, but the quarter still missed EPS at $0.59 versus $0.91 expected.
At a glance
B++ balance sheet — above average — nothing keeping you up at night
25/100 earnings predictability — expect surprises
62.9x trailing p/e — you're paying up for this one
20.5% return on capital — every dollar works hard here
xvary composite: 58/100 — below average
What they do
MACOM makes chips for 3 markets: telecom, data centers, and industrial & defense.
MACOM sells chips for 3 markets, so one customer group does not carry the story. Your board design does not change fast, because switching suppliers means reworking hardware. That stickiness helps explain 20.5% return on capital → profit on the money tied up in the business → 20.5%.
How they make money
$967M
annual revenue · their business grew +32.6% last year
total revenue
$967M
+32.6%
The products that matter
designs and sells analog chips
High-Performance Analog Semiconductors
$967M revenue · +32.6% FY growth
this is the whole $967M business; FY revenue grew ~32.6% on this page. the upside is focus. the downside is you do not get a slower side business to hide behind if demand cools.
100% of revenue
Key numbers
$967M
annual revenue
Revenue is still under $1B, so the whole valuation debate is whether growth keeps outrunning size.
55.9%
gross margin
More than half of sales stayed after chip costs. That is why profits outran revenue.
20.5%
return on capital
return on capital → profit on the money tied up in the business → 20.5% means the business turns invested cash into real profit.
62.9x
trailing p/e
price/earnings → stock price divided by profit → 62.9x means you are paying a lot for each dollar earned.
Financial health
B++
strength
- balance sheet grade B++ — above average financial health
- risk rank 3 — safer than 50% of stocks
- price stability 35 / 100
- long-term debt $340M (2% of capital)
- net profit margin 38.2% — keeps 38 cents of every dollar in revenue
- return on equity 24% — $0.24 profit for every $1 investors have put in
B++ — functional but not a standout on the balance sheet.
Total return vs. market
You invested $10,000 in MTSI 3 years ago → it's now worth $30,380.
The index would have given you $14,540.
source: institutional data · total return
What just happened
missed estimates
MACOM posted $272M in revenue, but the quarter still missed EPS at $0.59 versus $0.91 expected.
EDGAR shows $0.64 EPS, while Yahoo consensus logged $0.59 against $0.91 expected. Revenue was up 25% vs. prior year, and gross margin held at 55.9%.
$272.0M
quarter revenue
$0.59
eps
55.9%
gross margin
the number that mattered
55.9% gross margin mattered because more than half of every sales dollar stayed after chip costs, even with the EPS miss.
-
macom technology solutions started out fiscal 2026 the way it finished the previous campaign.there were several factors that drove the company’s stellar performance vs. prior year in the december period.
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record-high demand in the data center segment, particularly for 800 gig and 1.6t products, was a significant contributor.comparisons were also healthy in the industrial and defense unit, thanks to strong sales of components used in defense radar and electronic warfare applications. the successful ramp up of high-speed photodetectors and cw lasers for ai and data center customers helped to lift results at the high-speed connectivity solutions division.
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while the top line was healthy overall, operating efficiencies helped to boost profits as well.we look for the positive momentum to continue over the next 12 to 18 months, provided the economy holds up well. macom ended the december quarter with a book-to-bill ratio of 1.3, which augurs well for top-line growth in the coming months. the company is well positioned to benefit from seemingly insatiable demand from the ai and data center markets.
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one caveat that may slow things some is the economy.
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this is particularly noteworthy, given the conflict in the middle east.
source: company earnings report, 2026
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What could go wrong
the #1 risk is u.s. export-license review for high-end products.
med
export-license review
u.s. authorities are reviewing licenses tied to high-end products. that is not abstract policy noise. it goes directly at a part of the product set investors are counting on for growth.
if approvals slow or sales get constrained, a 62.9x earnings multiple gets a lot harder to defend.
med
supply chain and production friction
semiconductor supply chains are better than they were a few years ago, not bulletproof. for a company running a 23.0% operating margin, cost or delivery slippage still matters.
if production gets delayed, the 1.3 book-to-bill ratio can stop looking like upside and start looking like backlog you cannot convert.
med
demand normalizes after a fast growth stretch
revenue just grew 37.0% compared to last year. that sets a high bar. if data center, industrial, or defense orders cool, investors will notice quickly because there is only one reported business segment here.
a slowdown would pressure both the 23.0% operating margin and the premium valuation built on continued momentum.
these risks all feed the same pressure point: a stock at 62.9x trailing earnings does not get much room for a margin slip from 23.0% or a demand wobble after 37.0% growth.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
trend
book-to-bill ratio
last quarter was 1.3, which means orders outran shipments. if that stays above one, the growth case still has fuel.
earnings
next earnings in may
you want another quarter that confirms data center demand and keeps the revenue run-rate moving past $272M.
metric
operating margin
23.0% is the margin line worth defending. if revenue grows but margin fades, the multiple argument gets weaker fast.
risk
export-license review
this is the headline risk that can interrupt an otherwise clean demand story, especially for higher-end products.
Analyst rankings
short-term outlook
average
momentum score 3. in human-speak, analysts do not see an obvious short-term edge here.
risk profile
average
stability score 3 means middle-of-the-pack risk. not a bunker stock, not chaos either.
chart momentum
average
technical score 3 says the chart is not sending a special message right now. the fundamentals have to do the work.
earnings predictability
25 / 100
earnings are harder to model here than the margin profile suggests. you should expect sharper revisions and sharper reactions.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
institutions have been net buying for 3 consecutive quarters — 187 buyers vs. 135 sellers in 4q2025. total institutional holdings: 70.3M shares. net buying for 3 quarters.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
$136
$364
$219
current price
$250
target midpoint · +14% from current · 3-5yr high: $305 (+40% · 9% ann'l return)
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