XVARY Composite Score
55
/ 100
Below Average
Combines growth, value, risk, and momentum factors into a single institutional-grade score.
Start here if you're new
What it is
Vail Resorts runs ski mountains, hotels, and resort real estate across North America, Europe, and Australia.
How it gets paid
Last year Vail Resorts made $3.0B in revenue. Mountain was the main engine at $2.46B, or 82% of sales.
Why it's growing
Revenue grew 2.7% last year. We look for the premier mountain resort company to post adjusted earnings of $6.60 per share on revenues of $1.15 billion.
What just happened
Vail posted $1.4B of revenue, but earnings per share fell to $0.65.
At a Glance
B+ balance sheet — decent shape, but not bulletproof
30/100 earnings predictability — expect surprises
18.7x trailing p/e — priced about right
6.4% dividend yield — cash in your pocket every quarter
13.0% return on capital — nothing to write home about
XVARY composite: 55/100 — below average
What They Do
Vail Resorts runs ski mountains, hotels, and resort real estate across North America, Europe, and Australia.
Mountain brought in 82.0% of fiscal 2025 revenue. Lodging brought in 17.5%. That gap tells you where the power sits. You buy one trip, but Vail gets paid on lifts, rooms, and passes tied to the same vacation.
How They Make Money
$3.0B
annual revenue · their business grew +2.7% last year
Mountain
$2.46B
+2.7%
Lodging
$0.53B
0.0%
Real Estate
$0.02B
0.0%
The Products That Matter
Lift tickets, passes, and mountain access
Mountain Operations
$1.4B revenue
it's the entire revenue base in this snapshot. When sales fall 54.3%, you are not debating a side business — you are debating the business.
core
Advance-purchase season passes
Season Passes
-3% units · +1% revenue
pass units slipped 3%, but pass revenue still rose 1%. That means price and mix did the heavy lifting. If that stops working, the story gets tighter fast.
demand test
Key Numbers
$3.0B
annual sales
That is the money coming in each year. You are underwriting a business that depends on a few big winter months and a smaller lodging layer.
28.0%
op margin
That means $28 of every $100 of sales stays after operating costs. For a ski business, that is a strong spread over a 9.8% net margin.
6.4%
dividend yield
You get paid 6.4% while you wait. That is the market paying you to tolerate weather risk and seasonality.
$2.6B
debt
That is the bill hanging over the story. It equals 34% of capital, so the balance sheet is not a toy.
Financial Health
B+
Strength
- balance sheet grade B+ — solid but not elite
- risk rank 3 — safer than 50% of stocks
- price stability 65 / 100
- long-term debt $2.6B (34% of capital)
- net profit margin 9.8% — keeps 10 cents of every dollar in revenue
- return on equity 64% — $0.64 profit for every $1 investors have put in
B+ — functional but not a standout on the balance sheet.
Total Return vs. Market
You invested $10000 in MTN 3 years ago → it's now worth $6570.
The index would have given you $14770.
source: institutional data · total return
What Just Happened
missed estimates
Vail posted $1.4B of revenue, but earnings per share fell to $0.65.
Revenue rose 25% vs. prior year, but EPS dropped 89%. That is the whole story in two numbers.
$1.4B
revenue
$0.65
eps
+25%
revenue growth
the number that mattered
Revenue was $1.4B, but the 89% EPS drop showed how quickly profits can wobble when the season turns.
-
We look for the premier mountain resort company to post adjusted earnings of $6.60 per share on revenues of $1.15 billion, both increases of roughly 1% from a year ago.
-
The company reported a 3% decline in season pass units sold for the 2025/2026 ski season, compared to the prior-year period.
-
Despite this drop, total pass revenues increased by 1%, suggesting that higher pricing and premium pass tiers have worked to offset lower volume.this trend aligns nicely with vail’s strategy to prioritize quality over quantity, a move we think should enhance profitability in a competitive market.
-
For fiscal 2026, we project earnings of $6.75 per share, down 10%, with revenues increasing around 3%, to $3.05 billion.the company is focused on capitalizing on multi-season leisure trends and ancillary revenue streams such as lodging, dining, and real estate. vail’s significant advance pass revenue base, with an estimated 2.3 million epic passholders committed for the 2025/2026 season, provides a meaningful forward revenue cushion that supports planning and capacity utilization through winter peak periods.
-
Initiatives to enhance guest experience, upgrade resort infrastructure, and broaden off-season offerings could unlock incremental revenue and reduce seasonality risk.
source: company earnings report, 2026
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What Could Go Wrong
The #1 risk is season-pass demand softening at premium price points.
Med
Season-pass volume is already slipping
Pass units for the 2025/2026 ski season fell 3%. So far, a 1% increase in pass revenue says pricing offset the damage. That only works until it doesn't.
If pass revenue turns negative as units fall, the turnaround narrative gets a lot harder to defend.
Med
Guidance has already been reset lower
Management now expects fiscal 2026 net income of $144M–$190M. That's a wide range for a company investors are supposed to trust as a premium leisure operator.
A result near the low end leaves less support for both the valuation and the dividend story.
Med
Weather, travel spending, and leverage all hit the same model
This is a seasonal, discretionary business carrying $2.6B in long-term debt. A weak snow season or softer travel demand does not show up in isolation — it hits visits, pricing power, and cash flow at once.
On a $1.4B revenue base with a 7.7% net margin, there is not a huge cushion for a bad season.
These risks sit against $1.4B in annual revenue, $2.6B in long-term debt, and management guidance for just $144M–$190M in net income. That's why the 6.4% yield looks generous and fragile at the same time.
Source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay Attention To
Trend
Pass revenue versus pass units
Units fell 3%, but revenue still rose 1%. That spread is the first thing to watch from here.
Calendar
Next earnings report
March is the next hard check on whether the latest quarter was a blip or the start of a weaker season.
Risk
Net income versus the $144M–$190M guide
A premium operator with a wide guidance band is telling you visibility is not great. You should treat that as information.
Metric
Revenue recovery toward $3B
The stock does not need perfection. It does need the rebound math to look real rather than theoretical.
Analyst Rankings
short-term outlook
average
momentum score 3 — in human-speak, analysts do not see a strong short-term edge here.
risk profile
average
stability score 3 — typical market risk, but the business model itself is more cyclical than the label sounds.
chart momentum
average
technical score 3 — the chart is not screaming panic or breakout. It is waiting for fundamentals.
earnings predictability
30 / 100
Only 30 out of 100. You're supposed to expect a few surprises when weather, travel, and discretionary spend all matter.
Source: institutional data
Institutional Activity
institutions have been net buying for 2 consecutive quarters — 242 buyers vs. 188 sellers in 3q2025. total institutional holdings: 42.5M shares. net buying for 2 quarters.
Source: institutional data
Price Targets
3-5 year target range
$114
$235
$141
Current price
$175
Target midpoint · +24% from current · 3-5yr high: $285 (+100% · 23% ann'l return)
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