Start here if you're new
what it is
Matador drills for oil and gas in Texas and New Mexico, then moves some of it through its own midstream system.
how it gets paid
Last year Matador Resources made $3.7B in revenue. Oil sales was the main engine at $2.15B, or 58% of sales.
why it's growing
Revenue grew 5.1% last year. The quarter landed better than expected even as full-year quarterly EPS faded from $1.99 in Q1 2025 to $0.92 in Q4 2025.
what just happened
Last earnings came in at $1.55 per share versus a $0.92 estimate, a 68.48% beat.
At a glance
B+ balance sheet — decent shape, but not bulletproof
40/100 earnings predictability — expect surprises
7.2x trailing p/e — the market's not buying it — or you found a deal
3.6% dividend yield — cash in your pocket every quarter
10.0% return on capital — nothing to write home about
xvary composite: 71/100 — average
What they do
Matador drills for oil and gas in Texas and New Mexico, then moves some of it through its own midstream system.
Matador controls 611.5 million BOE of proved reserves, with 59% oil, in the Delaware Basin. That matters because reserves are inventory → future barrels to sell → the thing that keeps cash coming. You also get a midstream partner in San Mateo, which helps move product and has pushed drilling costs per foot lower while 2024 production still rose 30% to 170,751 BOE per day.
How they make money
$3.7B
annual revenue · their business grew +5.1% last year
Oil sales
$2.15B
Natural gas sales
$1.28B
Midstream services
$0.20B
Other revenue
$0.07B
The products that matter
drills and sells hydrocarbons
Oil and Gas Production
$3.7B revenue · entire business
it generated the full $3.7B revenue base last year and drove the 28.4% growth story. That focus keeps the model simple, but it also means you have no diversification if commodity prices weaken.
100% of revenue
Key numbers
$9.2B
reserve value
That is the present value of proved reserves at year-end 2024, which is a deadpan reminder that the resource base is larger than the stock market value.
7.2x
trailing p/e
You are paying 7.2 times trailing earnings, which is cheap if profits hold and a warning label if they do not.
33.5%
operating margin
Operating margin → money left after running the business → so what: Matador keeps about 34 cents of each revenue dollar before interest and taxes.
170,751
daily BOE
Production averaged 170,751 BOE per day in 2024, up 30%, which shows the drilling machine is still producing more volume.
Financial health
B+
strength
- balance sheet grade B+ — solid but not elite
- risk rank 3 — safer than 50% of stocks
- price stability 25 / 100
- long-term debt $2.4B (32% of capital)
- net profit margin 22.9% — keeps 23 cents of every dollar in revenue
- return on equity 12% — $0.12 profit for every $1 investors have put in
B+ — functional but not a standout on the balance sheet.
Total return vs. market
You invested $10,000 in MTDR 3 years ago → it's now worth $7,380.
The index would have given you $14,770.
source: institutional data · total return
What just happened
beat estimates
Last earnings came in at $1.55 per share versus a $0.92 estimate, a 68.48% beat.
The quarter landed better than expected even as full-year quarterly EPS faded from $1.99 in Q1 2025 to $0.92 in Q4 2025. Revenue in the latest quarter was $2.8 billion, up 211% vs. prior year, which shows how lumpy this business can look when commodity prices and timing move around.
$925M
revenue
$1.55
eps
68.48%
surprise
the number that mattered
The 68.48% EPS beat mattered because it showed the market was braced for a much weaker quarter than Matador delivered.
-
weak oil prices are creating a challenging operating environment for matador resources.the per-barrel price for west texas intermediate crude, a key benchmark, slipped below $60 in october and, except for a few half-hearted rallies, has stayed there. for comparison, wti averaged nearly $77 in 2024 and roughly $66 as recently as the september quarter. against this backdrop, we expect that earnings per share dropped to about $0.90 in the december quarter. (results should be released in mid-february.) on the positive side, even at current prices, matador still ought to have plenty of opportunities to drill additional high-return wells across its extensive permian basin holdings.
-
the company stepped up capital spending in the latter stages of 2025.
-
matador had previously allocated about $1.3 billion for drilling, completing and equipping wells last year, but probably spent closer to $1.5 billion, up roughly 14% from 2024.
-
costs per-foot drilled have continued to decline, but management opted to increase the number of operated wells turned to sales by about a dozen, to 118.
-
this added activity likely helped full-year production to climb 20%-21% in 2025, up from earlier expectations of 17%-20% growth.
source: company earnings report, 2026
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What could go wrong
the #1 risk is delaware basin oil-price sensitivity with a still-elevated drilling program.
med
WTI below $60
This is the obvious one. Matador's revenue is tied to what oil and gas fetch in the market, and recent weakness already pressured sentiment.
Impact: it exposes essentially the full $3.7B revenue stream to weaker realized prices.
med
growth spending into a softer tape
The company had already allocated about $1.3B for drilling, completing, and equipping wells. Spending aggressively works best when commodity prices cooperate.
Impact: if prices stay weak while activity stays high, free cash flow gets squeezed from both sides.
med
balance-sheet drag
B+ balance sheet grade is respectable, but $2.4B of long-term debt and 32% debt-to-capital still matter more in a downcycle than they do in a boom.
Impact: debt does not break the story here, but it reduces room for error if earnings keep falling.
med
earnings volatility
A 40/100 earnings-predictability score and a 29% EPS drop in the latest quarter tell you the number can move around fast.
Impact: low multiples can stay low when investors stop trusting the earnings base underneath them.
If crude stays weak, the market will care less about 20–21% production growth and more about whether a $3B 2026 revenue outlook is the new normal.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
earnings
next earnings report
Watch whether revenue and EPS stabilize. Another quarter like the last one would keep the market focused on downside, not the 7.2x multiple.
trend
production growth vs. price pressure
Management is targeting 20–21% production growth. The question is whether volume growth outruns weaker commodity pricing.
risk
WTI crude
If WTI stays below $60, the revenue line matters more than any operational efficiency win.
metric
capital discipline
Keep an eye on spending after the roughly $1.3B drilling budget. In this sector, growth is only impressive if it still pays you.
Analyst rankings
short-term outlook
top 5%
momentum score 1 — the highest rating. in human-speak, analysts still think the stock can outperform near term even with commodity risk in the background.
risk profile
average
stability score 3 — middle of the pack. Not a safe haven, not the wildest name in the sector either.
chart momentum
average
technical score 3 — no strong trend signal. The chart is waiting for oil or earnings to pick a direction.
earnings predictability
40 / 100
Low predictability means the quarterly number can surprise you in both directions. That is normal for upstream energy. It is still a risk.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
222 buyers vs. 222 sellers in 3q2025. total institutional holdings: 0.1B shares.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
$33
$94
$42
current price
$64
target midpoint · +53% from current · 3-5yr high: $100 (+140% · 26% ann'l return)
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