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what it is
It sells dating apps and subscriptions across brands like Tinder, Hinge, Match, and OkCupid.
how it gets paid
Last year Match made $3.5B in revenue.
why it's growing
Full-year revenue grew about 0.2% on the ~$3.5B base. The latest quarter was up about 2% vs. prior year—different period, not a contradiction. Hinge direct revenue jumped 27%.
what just happened
Match Group posted $914M in quarterly revenue, and Hinge kept the cleanest growth line.
At a glance
B+ balance sheet — decent shape, but not bulletproof
40/100 earnings predictability — expect surprises
13.9x trailing p/e — the market's not buying it — or you found a deal
2.6% dividend yield — cash in your pocket every quarter
18.0% return on capital — solid for a mature platform
xvary composite: 70/100 — average
What they do
It sells dating apps and subscriptions across brands like Tinder, Hinge, Match, and OkCupid.
Match runs 11 brands in 40 languages. That gives you more doors into the same wallet. Revenue comes directly from users as recurring subscriptions, so one weak month does not empty the till. Tinder fell 3% while Hinge direct revenue rose 27%. Your money is stuck between a fading giant and a faster climber.
How they make money
$3.5B
annual revenue · their business grew +0.2% last year
total revenue
$3.5B
+0.2%
The products that matter
flagship and growth dating brands
tinder & hinge
$3.5B company revenue
these brands drive the business. Hinge direct revenue grew 27% last year while Tinder fell 3%, which tells you where the growth is coming from and where the repair job sits.
core story
paid features and subscriptions
monetization engine
~18.3% net margin
the company kept about 18 cents of every revenue dollar as profit (aligned to the health row). That matters because even with slower growth, this is still a business that converts usage into real earnings.
profit layer
trust and product experimentation
tinder user experience tests
tinder revenue -3%
management tied part of Tinder's decline to product tests and trust features like face check. If those changes improve retention, the stock looks cheap. If they don't, the low multiple stays low.
catalyst watch
Key numbers
13.9x
trailing p/e
You pay 13.9 dollars for each dollar of trailing profit. That is cheap for tech, but not free.
35.0%
operating margin
Thirty-five cents of every sales dollar stays after running costs. That gives the company room when growth slows.
$3.5B
annual revenue
This is the whole company size. Tinder and Hinge are fighting over a $3.5B pie.
2.6%
dividend yield
You get paid 2.6% to wait. That is cash back while the brands argue over growth.
Financial health
B+
strength
- balance sheet grade B+ — solid but not elite
- risk rank 3 — safer than 50% of stocks
- price stability 30 / 100
- long-term debt $3.5B (32% of capital)
- net profit margin 18.3% — keeps 18 cents of every dollar in revenue
B+ — functional but not a standout on the balance sheet.
Total return vs. market
You invested $10,000 in MTCH 3 years ago → it's now worth $6,990.
The index would have given you $14,770.
source: institutional data · total return
What just happened
beat estimates
Match Group posted $914M in quarterly revenue, and Hinge kept the cleanest growth line.
Total revenue rose 2% vs. prior year. Hinge direct revenue jumped 27%, while Tinder revenue fell 3%.
$914M
qtr revenue (vs. prior year +2%)
$0.70
eps (Q)
72.9%
gross margin
the number that mattered
The 27% Hinge revenue gain matters more than the 2% company gain, because it shows one brand is still carrying the growth load.
-
match group probably closed out 2025 with healthy results.the company turned in a decent performance in the third quarter of 2025, providing a solid foundation to build on.
-
vs. prior year, total revenue rose 2%, to $914 million.
-
hinge continued to show strong growth, with a 27% increase in direct revenue and a 17% rise in payers.
-
meanwhile, revenue from tinder declined 3%.
-
management attributed the decline partly to user experience tests.these tests, such as new recommendation algorithms and features like face check, are designed to enhance the overall user experience and trust on the platform. while these changes are expected to drive long-term growth, they’ve had an unfavorable impact on revenue.
source: company earnings report, 2026
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What could go wrong
the #1 risk is tinder failing to return to growth while legal and trust issues keep hanging over the portfolio.
high
tinder decline lasts longer than management expects
Tinder revenue fell 3% even as Hinge grew 27%. If the flagship keeps shrinking, Hinge has to do more than grow — it has to offset the brand that still anchors the portfolio.
this is the core operating risk because the company's largest brand is moving the wrong way.
high
user safety and billing litigation
The company already faces lawsuits tied to user safety and billing practices. These cases matter beyond legal cost because dating apps run on trust, and trust problems are product problems.
a legal overhang can pressure both margin and user perception at the same time.
med
growth is barely moving at the company level
Full-year revenue was up only about 0.2% on the ~$3.5B base; the latest quarter’s ~2% vs. prior year print is a different window—not 33% hypergrowth. That deceleration changes what multiple feels “fair.”
if growth stays near flat, the 13.9x multiple may be fair rather than cheap.
med
balance sheet flexibility is decent, not endless
B+ financial health is good. $3.5B in long-term debt and 32% debt-to-capital mean it is not the kind of balance sheet that lets management miss for years without consequences.
slower growth plus leverage reduces room for error.
The combined risk picture is simple: a ~$3.5B revenue business with full-year growth near flat and quarterly prints near ~2% vs. prior year cannot afford a prolonged decline in Tinder or a hit to user trust.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
metric
tinder revenue trend
Tinder fell 3%. If that number gets back to flat or positive, the whole MTCH debate changes fast.
trend
hinge staying above the portfolio
Hinge direct revenue grew 27% and payers rose 17%. You want to see whether that outgrowth continues as the business gets larger.
risk
litigation and trust headlines
Dating apps sell access and confidence. Any escalation around safety or billing disputes can hit brand perception before it hits the income statement.
calendar
next earnings report
Management already said February is next. You are looking for one thing: whether product changes at Tinder are starting to show up in revenue.
Analyst rankings
short-term outlook
top 5%
momentum score 1 — the highest rating. in human-speak, analysts think MTCH can outperform most stocks over the next year.
risk profile
average
stability score 3 — this sits near the market middle on risk. Not a bunker stock, not chaos either.
chart momentum
average
technical score 3 — the chart is not screaming either direction right now.
earnings predictability
40 / 100
low predictability means the quarterly numbers can move around more than you want. Translation: expect some noise.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
institutions have been net buying for 2 consecutive quarters — 338 buyers vs. 256 sellers in 3q2025. total institutional holdings: 0.3B shares. net buying for 2 quarters.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
$24
$46
$31
current price
$35
target midpoint · +12% from current · top of bar range: $46 (+48% vs ~$31 — illustrative; caps at published range)
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