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what it is
ArcelorMittal makes the steel inside your cars, buildings, appliances, pipes, and rail lines.
how it gets paid
Last year Arcelormittal made $61.4B in revenue. flat steel products was the main engine at $27.6B, or 45% of sales.
why growth slowed
Revenue fell 1.7% last year. The 6% revenue decline matters most because steel names can keep posting profit swings.
what just happened
ArcelorMittal reported $30.7B in quarterly revenue, down 6% vs. prior year, while the latest reported EPS missed estimates by 4.62%.
At a glance
B++ balance sheet — above average — nothing keeping you up at night
10/100 earnings predictability — expect surprises
16.0x trailing p/e — the market's not buying it — or you found a deal
1.1% dividend yield — cash in your pocket every quarter
10.0% return on capital — nothing to write home about
xvary composite: 72/100 — average
What they do
ArcelorMittal makes the steel inside your cars, buildings, appliances, pipes, and rail lines.
Scale matters in steel because your blast furnace does not care about your feelings. ArcelorMittal generated $61.4B in annual revenue and still kept a 16.5% operating margin (operating margin → money left after running the business → room to survive ugly pricing). You also get a company with $10.7B of long-term debt equal to 19% of capital, which is manageable for a business this cyclical.
How they make money
$61.4B
annual revenue · their business grew -1.7% last year
flat steel products
$27.6B
long steel products
$15.4B
pipes and tubes
$8.0B
stainless and specialty steel
$6.1B
mining
$4.3B
The products that matter
rolled steel manufacturing
Flat steel products
part of a $61.4B revenue base
This is core steel output inside a $61.4B business. The page does not break out revenue by product, which tells you the bigger investment driver is the cycle, not one hero segment.
core volume
sheet steel production
Sheet
16.5% operating margin backdrop
Sheet matters because the whole company produced a 16.5% operating margin on $61.4B in revenue. If steel pricing weakens, this margin cushion gets tested fast.
margin watch
plate steel production
Plate
10.0% return on capital
Plate sits inside a business earning 10.0% on capital. That is enough to work in a good market, but not enough to claim any special advantage.
cycle exposure
Key numbers
16.0x
trailing p/e
P/E → price-to-earnings → what you pay for past profits. You are paying 16 times trailing earnings for a business with very cyclical demand.
$10.7B
long-term debt
Debt is 19% of capital, which means the balance sheet looks solid enough to absorb a downturn without instant panic.
16.5%
operating margin
Operating margin → profit after running the mills → proof this is earning real money even in a messy steel market.
10.0%
return on capital
Return on capital → profit earned on money invested → decent, but not so high that you should pretend steel became software.
Financial health
B++
strength
- balance sheet grade B++ — above average financial health
- risk rank 3 — safer than 50% of stocks
- price stability 40 / 100
- long-term debt $10.7B (19% of capital)
- net profit margin 9.8% — keeps 10 cents of every dollar in revenue
- return on equity 10% — $0.10 profit for every $1 investors have put in
B++ — functional but not a standout on the balance sheet.
Total return vs. market
You invested $10,000 in MT 3 years ago → it's now worth $21,970.
The index would have given you $13,880.
source: institutional data · total return
What just happened
missed estimates
ArcelorMittal reported $30.7B in quarterly revenue, down 6% vs. prior year, while the latest reported EPS missed estimates by 4.62%.
The SEC data shows quarterly EPS of $3.38, up 89% vs. prior year, but Yahoo lists the most recent reported quarter at $0.62 versus a $0.65 estimate. Different quarter labels appear to be driving the mismatch, which is a very steel-company sentence.
$15.4B
revenue
$3.38
eps
7.1%
gross margin
the number that mattered
The 6% revenue decline matters most because steel names can keep posting profit swings, but falling sales usually tell you where the cycle is heading.
-
arcelormittal’s share price has been on a tear.late last year, the equity moved above the high-thirties, which had served as the upper-end of mt’s range for the past seven years. once that level was broken, there was no overhead resistance met until the mid-fifties level, last seen in 2013, was tested and scaled earlier this month. with the right backdrop, this could be just the start, as this issue previously made multiple runs to the $100 level, even briefly surpassing $200 in the first decade of the 2000s. for that to play out again, we’d think a sustained period of operating margins in the high teens would need to take hold on tight supplies and strong demand for steel.
-
that’s typical only when synchronized global growth is underway for a few years.besides the short stretch after economies opened to pent-up demand in 2021, there has not been such a backdrop in a long time. protectionist policies enacted last year in the u.s. and europe have proved to be a big plus after heavy imports from china were harming regional metals markets in 2024. pockets of improved demand and customer restocking have been lifting steel pricing in the u.s. and europe sans excessive imports.
-
we think the company can keep the recovery that began last year going in the intermediate term.
-
expanded eu commission protectionist policies for the steel industry will go into effect in june.
-
that will likely mean higher commodity price realizations in the quarters ahead for arcelormittal.
source: company earnings report, 2026
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What could go wrong
the top risk here is steel-price weakness colliding with cross-border regulatory exposure. This is a $61.4B industrial business, not a neat recurring-revenue story.
high
gujarat high court penalty tied to former essar steel compliance
A March 2026 report said ArcelorMittal, through the former Essar Steel business, faces a significant penalty after more than a decade of non-compliance. Legal overhangs like this are slow, expensive, and distracting.
the page's risk model flags $9.2B–$15.3B of revenue exposure here, but the underlying detail is thin
high
multi-jurisdiction antitrust and sanctions exposure
The filing language is plain: ArcelorMittal operates across multiple jurisdictions with antitrust and sanctions exposure. The larger and more global the steel footprint, the more ways regulation can interrupt operations.
same flagged exposure range: $9.2B–$15.3B of revenue
med
geopolitical headlines and downgrades can hit the stock fast
The shares dropped more than 5% on a mix of geopolitical pressure and an analyst downgrade. A 40/100 price-stability score tells you this is not a stock that shrugs off macro noise.
the page flags $6.1B–$9.2B of revenue exposure for this risk bucket
the page identifies 3 risk buckets and roughly $9.2B of combined revenue exposure, but some of the source detail is thin. Treat the direction as useful and the precision as approximate.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
calendar
next earnings release
The exact date is not listed on this page. What you care about is whether margin holds near 16.5% if steel pricing softens.
metric
margin versus revenue
Revenue fell 1.7% from last year, yet operating margin stayed at 16.5%. If both start moving down together, the cheap-multiple case weakens fast.
ownership
institutional buying streak
Institutions were net buyers for 2 straight quarters, with 128 buyers versus 107 sellers in 3q2025. If that flips, sentiment may be changing before the fundamentals do.
risk
india compliance overhang
The Gujarat High Court penalty issue is specific, ongoing, and easier to underestimate than broad macro talk. Jurisdiction risk has a habit of sticking around.
Analyst rankings
earnings predictability
10 / 100
In human-speak: analysts do not trust this earnings stream to behave nicely from quarter to quarter.
risk rank
3
A risk rank of 3 means this sits around the market midpoint on safety. Not fragile, not a bunker.
price stability
40 / 100
That score tells you the stock can swing. You are being paid with volatility, not spared from it.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
institutions have been net buying for 2 consecutive quarters — 128 buyers vs. 107 sellers in 3q2025. total institutional holdings: 32.5M shares. net buying for 2 quarters.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
$28
$76
$62
current price
$52
target midpoint · 15% from current · 3-5yr high: $105 (+70% · 15% ann'l return)
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