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what it is
Marsh & McLennan sells insurance advice, reinsurance help, benefits consulting, and strategy work to companies that hate surprises.
how it gets paid
Last year Lennan made $27.0B in revenue. Marsh was the main engine at $12.2B, or 45% of sales.
why it's growing
Revenue grew 10.3% last year. That miss matters because the business still posted full-year 2025 EPS of $9.60.
what just happened
The last report missed estimates by 14.7%, with EPS of $1.68 versus the $1.97 consensus.
At a glance
A balance sheet — strong enough to weather a downturn
85/100 earnings predictability — you can trust these numbers
19.0x trailing p/e — priced about right
2.1% dividend yield — cash in your pocket every quarter
16.5% return on capital — nothing to write home about
xvary composite: 78/100 — average
What they do
Marsh & McLennan sells insurance advice, reinsurance help, benefits consulting, and strategy work to companies that hate surprises.
This business sits in the middle of expensive problems. If your company needs insurance, benefits advice, or reinsurance, you do not casually swap advisers. Marsh & McLennan turned that trust into a 19.7% net profit margin in 2024 and a 25% return on equity, which is profit on shareholder money, so what: the model throws off real cash without heroic risk.
How they make money
$27.0B
annual revenue · their business grew +10.3% last year
Marsh
$12.2B
Guy Carpenter
$4.8B
Mercer
$6.8B
Oliver Wyman
$3.2B
The products that matter
places and advises on insurance
insurance broking
part of a $27.0B revenue base
This is the core habit of the business: clients pay to transfer risk and interpret complicated coverage. Segment revenue is not broken out here, but it sits inside the $27.0B total that grew 10.3% last year.
sticky demand
advises companies on people and strategy
consulting
latest quarter: $6.4B revenue companywide
Consulting matters because it keeps Marsh & McLennan in the room even when a client is not renewing a policy that week. The latest quarter still produced $6.4B in revenue at a 25.0% operating margin, which says demand stayed intact.
embedded relationships
advises on complex and large risks
reinsurance and advisory
85 / 100 predictability
This matters because companies do not switch high-stakes advisors casually. An 85/100 earnings predictability score is the plain-English clue that the client base tends to recur, not wander.
recurring expertise
Key numbers
16.5%
return on capital
Return on capital → profit generated from money put into the business → so what: this is well above the 10% line many investors use for quality.
$10.25
2026 EPS est
Earnings per share → profit per share → so what: at $182.40, you are paying about 17.8x that forecast, which is not cheap but not absurd.
100/100
price stability
Price stability → how calm the stock has been → so what: you are buying a business that historically moves more like a seatbelt than a roller coaster.
19.7%
net margin
Net margin → profit kept after costs → so what: keeping nearly 20 cents of every revenue dollar is rare for a people-heavy advisory business.
Financial health
A
strength
- balance sheet grade A — very strong financial position
- risk rank 1 — safer than 95% of stocks
- price stability 100 / 100
- long-term debt $18.4B (17% of capital)
- net profit margin 19.7% — keeps 20 cents of every dollar in revenue
- return on equity 25% — $0.25 profit for every $1 investors have put in
A with balance sheet grade and risk rank standing out. your money faces less risk here than at most public companies.
Total return vs. market
You invested $10,000 in MRSH 3 years ago → it's now worth $11,000.
The index would have given you $14,770.
source: institutional data · total return
What just happened
missed estimates
The last report missed estimates by 14.7%, with EPS of $1.68 versus the $1.97 consensus.
That miss matters because the business still posted full-year 2025 EPS of $9.60, up from $8.80 in 2024. Quiet part out loud: the company is still growing, just not fast enough to make every quarter look clean.
$6.8B
revenue
$1.68
eps
26.0%
operating margin
the number that mattered
The number that mattered was the $1.68 EPS print, because it came in $0.29 below the $1.97 estimate and reminded you this stock is priced for consistency.
-
we look for growth at marsh & mclennan to moderate somewhat in 2026.the company has a long history of substantial and relatively steady top- and bottom-line expansion, as it helps its clients prepare for and manage risk. it was expected to release fourth-quarter results shortly after we went to press for this issue, and we think the company posted solid results. we remind readers that we are now using adjusted earnings in our presentation but are not restating prior years.
-
for 2025, profit per share likely rose 9%, to $9.60 from $8.80 in 2024.however, for the coming year we expect renewal rates to come down a little and acquisition are likely to be down somewhat.
-
consequently, growth in 2026 could slow to 5%-7%.
-
marsh is making progress on its rebranding initiative.
-
last fall, management outlined a plan to sharpen its corporate image.over the past several years, the company has operated four divisions (under four different brands) encompassing insurance, risk management, employee benefits, and strategy.
source: company earnings report, 2026
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What could go wrong
The top threat here is a slowdown in client demand for risk and consulting work. This is a stable business, but stability is not immunity.
high
client caution hits the whole model
When companies cut hiring, expansion, or insurance spending, Marsh & McLennan feels it across broking and consulting. This snapshot does not give segment exposure, which means you should treat the $27.0B revenue base as broadly tied to corporate risk budgets.
slower demand would pressure the full $27.0B revenue machine, not one small side business
med
quality premium, weak stock response
MRSH trades at 19.0x trailing earnings with a 2.1% yield and a momentum rank of 4. If growth cools from the current 10.3% pace, investors may stop paying up for steadiness and start treating it like a bond proxy with equity risk.
multiple compression matters more when three-year returns are only $11,000 on a $10,000 start
med
institutional patience is thinning
There were 691 institutional buyers versus 744 sellers in 3q2025. That is not a collapse, but it is not quiet accumulation either. If the business stays solid and the stock still cannot attract buyers, upside can remain stuck.
ownership is still large at 0.4B shares, but the near-term flow signal is negative
A risk rank of 1 helps, but it does not erase the two real questions: will growth stay above the current 10.3% pace, and will the market ever pay you for it.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
catalyst
revenue growth holding above 10%
The whole quality case looks better if MRSH keeps growing from a $27.0B base at something close to the recent 10.3% pace.
trend
whether margin stays near 25.0%
In this kind of business, margin tells you whether pricing power is real or just a good quarter in disguise.
earnings
the next quarter after a $6.4B revenue print
One strong quarter is nice. A second one would make the recent beat look like a pattern instead of a headline.
risk
institutional flow flipping back positive
691 buyers versus 744 sellers is not a disaster, but you would rather see that spread reverse if the stock is going to wake up.
Analyst rankings
short-term outlook
average
outlook rank 3 — in human-speak, analysts think this is a quality stock without a near-term reason to chase it.
risk profile
safest 5%
risk rank 1 — lower downside risk than almost any stock in its peer group.
chart momentum
below average
momentum rank 4 — the market is treating this as dependable, not exciting.
earnings predictability
85 / 100
The numbers tend to come in where expected. That is great for trust and less great for surprise-fueled rallies.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
691 buyers vs. 744 sellers in 3q2025. total institutional holdings: 0.4B shares.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
$162
$303
$182
current price
$233
target midpoint · +28% from current · 3-5yr high: $340 (+85% · 18% ann'l return)
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