How does moderna, inc. make money?

moderna, inc. generates ~$1.94B in annual revenue (annual revenue · revenue declined ~40% vs. prior year).

What is MRNA's XVARY composite score?

moderna, inc. (MRNA) has an XVARY composite score of 20/100, rated weak. This combines growth, value, risk, and momentum factors.

MRNA — moderna, inc. stock analysis

Start here if you're new

what it is

Moderna makes vaccines and medicines using messenger RNA, the genetic message cells use to build proteins.

how it gets paid

Last year Moderna made about $1.94B in revenue (per recent results commentary on this page).

why growth slowed
Revenue fell ~40% vs. prior year at the annual level. EPS losses were about $2.11 in the latest quarter and $7.26 for the full year (GAAP lines vary by source— verify the filing).

what just happened

Latest quarter revenue was about $678M (down sharply vs. prior year)— not the same as the ~$1.94B full year.

At a glance

C++ balance sheet — some cracks in the foundation

5/100 earnings predictability — expect surprises

return on capital — reconcile with operating losses; screen can lag reality

xvary composite: 20/100 — weak

-$4.75 fy2027 eps est

What they do

Moderna makes vaccines and medicines using messenger RNA, the genetic message cells use to build proteins.

Moderna's moat is the platform, not one drug. On this snapshot the commercial line is still heavily concentrated in covid-era vaccine revenue; RSV and other shots contribute but the mix shifts quarter to quarter. You are buying one research engine with multiple shots on goal— execution still dominates the P&L.

healthcare large-cap biotech vaccines mrna

How they make money

~$1.94B annual revenue · revenue declined ~40% vs. prior year

total revenue

~$1.94B

~40%

The products that matter

commercial covid-19 vaccine

Spikevax

dominant share of ~$1.94B revenue

Covid vaccine sales still anchor the reported top line; other approved products add but do not yet re-rate the model. When demand for the core franchise slips, the whole income statement feels it.

core franchise

pre-revenue pipeline

clinical pipeline

$0 disclosed revenue here

this is where the upside lives, but this snapshot gives you no commercial revenue beyond Spikevax. That means the pipeline is still promise, not proof.

optionality

platform manufacturing base

mRNA platform

$16B market cap backing it

the market is still assigning value beyond the current $1.9B revenue base. Your bet is that the platform eventually earns that trust with more than one product.

second act needed

Key numbers

~$1.94B

annual revenue

You are paying a ~$16B market cap for under $2B of sales. That is a high sales multiple on a shrinking covid-era base.

~-158%

operating margin (loss)

Screen math can show a huge negative “margin %” when revenue shrinks but operating spend stays heavy— read it as operating loss, not a positive ratio.

$590M

long-term debt

Debt is only $590M, or 3% of capital. The bigger issue is that the business still has to earn its keep.

$35

18-month target

The target sits below the current $42.23 price. That means the market is already paying ahead of the analyst view.

Financial health

C++

strength

balance sheet grade C++ — below average — limited financial resources
risk rank 5 — safer than 5% of stocks
price stability 5 / 100
long-term debt $590M (3% of capital)
net profit margin deeply negative on recent GAAP results— ignore stale positive screen prints
return on equity negative in loss years— reconcile any positive screen ROE with filings

C++ — balance sheet is strained by the post-covid burn; do not trust “healthy margin” screens while EPS is negative.

Total return vs. market

You invested $10,000 in MRNA 3 years ago → it's now worth $2,460.

The index would have given you $13,880.

same period. same starting point. MRNA trailed the market by $11,420.

source: institutional data · total return

What just happened

missed estimates

Moderna's latest quarter was about $678M in revenue (down vs. prior year), while EPS stayed deeply negative.

Company commentary on this page cites about $678M for a recent quarter and ~$1.94B for the year, with revenue down ~30% quarter-to-quarter and ~40% year-on-year versus peak demand. EDGAR vs Yahoo EPS can differ (-$5.15 vs about -$2.11)— always match GAAP vs adjusted and the exact period.

~$678M

quarter revenue (approx.)

~-$2.11

quarter EPS (consensus trail)

down vs. prior year

quarter revenue trend

the number that mattered

The ~40% full-year revenue decline to ~$1.94B matters more than any single noisy quarter— demand for the legacy franchise is still rolling down from the pandemic peak.

moderna recently released 2025 financial results.
during the three- and 12-month periods, revenues declined 30% and 40%, to $678 million and $1.94 billion, respectively.

the top line was expected to fall since the company's covid-19 vaccines, spikevax and mnexspike are the main revenue sources. ( mresvia, also approved, is used to treat respiratory synctial virus). although these vaccines continue to buoy revenues, contributions have lagged demand trends experienced in 2020 and a year or so after, due to the now-endemic phase of the virus. still, the company seems determined to write a new chapter, with research endeavors focused on a diversified portfolio of vaccines.
in order to facilitate pipeline progress, moderna implemented stringent cost-saving programs.
in 2025, operating expenses were pared 30%, to $5.0 billion.

the tactics helped narrow share deficits to losses of $2.11 and $7.26 for the December and full-year periods.
pipeline activities are expected to intensify in 2026 and 2027.

source: company earnings report, 2026

What could go wrong

Moderna's biggest risk is simple: it stays a one-product company for longer than the market is willing to tolerate.

∘

med

Spikevax concentration

This snapshot assigns 100% of the company's $1.9B revenue to Spikevax. If demand weakens, there is no second commercial engine here to soften the hit.

Impact: all current revenue is exposed to the performance of one product.

∘

med

pipeline delay or failure

The bull case needs another asset to matter financially. Right now, this page shows no disclosed commercial revenue beyond Spikevax, so any regulatory or clinical delay extends the same concentration problem.

Impact: the company stays dependent on one franchise while the stock keeps pricing future programs.

∘

med

negative earnings persist

FY2026 EPS is estimated at -$6.50 even with revenue expected near $2B. In plain English: a little more sales do not automatically fix the P&L.

Impact: modest revenue growth can still leave you with a business that burns through investor patience.

∘

med

another violent rerating

The short-term outlook sits in the bottom 5%, price stability is 5/100, and a three-year $10,000 investment fell to $2,460. This stock has already shown you what a lost narrative looks like.

Impact: sentiment can keep doing damage even when the science story stays intact.

Combined, these risks leave 100% of current revenue tied to Spikevax while the company is still expected to lose $6.50 per share in FY2026.

source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis

Pay attention to

calendar

next earnings update

You need to see whether revenue diversification starts showing up in the numbers. Last full review: updated feb 27, 2026.

metric

Spikevax revenue share

Right now it is 100% of the $1.9B revenue line. If that percentage stays pinned near all of it, the second-act argument stays theoretical.

risk

FY2026 loss profile

The -$6.50 EPS estimate matters because it tells you the business is still not translating revenue into profit. Watch whether losses narrow meaningfully.

trend

institutional flow

258 buyers versus 314 sellers in 3q2025 is not subtle. If that trend keeps leaning negative, the wait for pipeline proof gets harder.

Analyst rankings

short-term outlook

bottom 5%

momentum score 5 — in human-speak, analysts expect this stock to lag almost everything else in the near term.

risk profile

high risk

stability score 5 — real risk of large drawdowns, which matches the stock's three-year damage.

chart momentum

average

technical score 3 — the chart is not sending a rescue signal. It is just existing.

earnings predictability

5 / 100

earnings predictability this low means the numbers are hard to model. For you, that means wider outcomes and more surprise risk.

source: institutional data

Institutional activity

258 buyers vs. 314 sellers in 3q2025. total institutional holdings: 0.3B shares.

source: institutional data · 1q2025-3q2025

source: institutional data

Price targets

3-5 year target range

$14 $56

$42 current price

$35 target midpoint · 17% from current · 3-5yr high: $55 (+30% · 7% ann'l return)

source: institutional data · analyst targets

The deep dive

MRNA

xvary deep dive

mrna

the full analysis is in the works.

what you'll get

dcf valuation model

bull / base / bear scenarios

competitive moat breakdown

quarterly earnings tracker

operating model projections

risk matrix with kill criteria

original price target + conviction

updated with every earnings

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