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what it is
Marathon Petroleum turns crude oil into gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel, then moves it through a huge U.S. network.
how it gets paid
Last year Marathon Petrol made $132.7B in revenue. Refining & Marketing was the main engine at $111.2B, or 84% of sales.
why growth slowed
Revenue fell 4.4% last year. The $5.12 a share result mattered most because it was 153.47% above the $2.02 estimate.
what just happened
MPC earned $5.12 a share last quarter, versus $2.02 expected.
At a glance
B++ balance sheet — above average — nothing keeping you up at night
5/100 earnings predictability — expect surprises
15.3x trailing p/e — the market's not buying it — or you found a deal
2.1% dividend yield — cash in your pocket every quarter
8.5% return on capital — nothing to write home about
xvary composite: 65/100 — average
What they do
Marathon Petroleum turns crude oil into gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel, then moves it through a huge U.S. network.
MPC can process about 3.0 million barrels a day through 16 plants. That scale spreads fixed costs across more barrels than a smaller refiner. You are buying a machine that still made a 7.5% operating margin, which means every barrel matters.
How they make money
$132.7B
annual revenue · their business grew -4.4% last year
Refining & Marketing
$111.2B
4.4%
Wholesale & Distribution
$9.1B
2.0%
MPLX Midstream
$6.4B
+2.0%
Renewable Fuels
$3.2B
+12.0%
Corporate & Other
$2.8B
0.0%
The products that matter
refines and sells fuels
refining and marketing
$132.7B revenue
this is the full $132.7B business in the snapshot, up 32.5% from the prior period, and it still only translated into $3.2B of net profit. scale is real. margin room is not.
entire revenue base
Key numbers
$186
target price
That is $18.26 below the current $204.26 quote, so you are paying above the 18-month target.
2.1%
cash payout
You collect 2.1% a year while waiting for fuel margins to cooperate.
$132.7B
annual sales
This is the scale behind the machine, even after sales slipped 4.4% from the prior year.
7.5%
operating margin
Every 1-point move here changes operating profit by about $1.3B on this revenue base.
Financial health
B++
strength
- balance sheet grade B++ — above average financial health
- risk rank 3 — safer than 50% of stocks
- price stability 60 / 100
- long-term debt $31.2B (34% of capital)
- net profit margin 2.5% — keeps 2 cents of every dollar in revenue
- return on equity 12% — $0.12 profit for every $1 investors have put in
B++ — functional but not a standout on the balance sheet.
Total return vs. market
You invested $10,000 in MPC 3 years ago → it's now worth $18,070.
The index would have given you $13,880.
source: institutional data · total return
What just happened
beat estimates
MPC earned $5.12 a share last quarter, versus $2.02 expected.
Revenue came in at $100.1B, and the beat was 153.47%. The clean read is simple: the quarter was strong even with a rough fuel backdrop.
$100.1B
revenue
$5.12
earnings/share
7.5%
operating margin
the number that mattered
The $5.12 a share result mattered most because it was 153.47% above the $2.02 estimate.
-
marathon petroleum reported good fourth-quarter financial results.the domestic petroleum operator posted december-period revenues of $33.4 billion, which was roughly flat versus the previous-year period.
-
on the earnings front, net income of $5.12 per share handily topped consensus expectations, and improved from a year ago.the strong bottom-line showing was supported by higher refining margins and crude capacity utilization in the refining segment.
-
marathon’s mplx operation is performing well, too, contributing nicely to operating income.on balance, we look for revenues to perk up this year, although we are taking a slightly moreconservative stance on earnings, as margins may come under a bit of pressure.
-
the company recently announced a deal with energy technology provider baker hughes.specifically, baker hughes was selected as the preferred provider of chemical treatment products and services to marathon’s u.s. operations. in addition to providing hydrocarbon treatment solutions to twelve refineries and two renewable fuel facilities, baker hughes will also implement digital monitoring tools to boost operational efficiency and environmental compliance.
-
shareholder-friendly policies are apt to remain in place.the company has been aggressively buying back shares, and will likely continue to chip away at the outstanding share count over the pull to late decade ($4.4 billion remaining on the current authorization). meanwhile, the anticipated dividend payment for the full year 2026 should be covered solely by funds received from the company’s midstream operator mplx.
source: company earnings report, 2026
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What could go wrong
the #1 risk is a drop in fuel demand and refining margins.
med
demand falls, and thin margins get thinner
this is a volume-and-spread business. if economic activity softens, fuel demand softens with it, and a 2.4% net margin does not leave much room for error.
all $132.7B of revenue depends on moving refined products, so a weaker cycle hits both volume and profitability at the same time.
med
the balance sheet is fine — until the cycle turns
B++ financial health is solid, but $31.2B of long-term debt and a 34% debt-to-capital figure matter more in a weaker refining environment than they do near the highs.
when margins compress, leverage feels larger. that's the problem with low-margin businesses: the fixed obligations do not shrink with the spread.
med
the stock already reflects a lot of good news
MPC trades at $204.26, near the top of its $115–$206 range, while the 3–5 year target midpoint is $186. you do not usually get that setup by being early.
if earnings normalize after a strong quarter, the multiple does not need to expand much for the stock to stall. it can just sit there and wait for the business to catch up.
the risk stack is simple: a low-margin, $132.7B revenue business with $31.2B of debt does not need a disaster to disappoint you — it just needs the cycle to cool.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
key metric
net margin stays stuck at 2.4%
that is the whole setup. if revenue keeps growing but margin does not, the scale will look impressive and the earnings power will still feel ordinary.
trend
can the post-beat earnings strength stick
last quarter delivered $4.51 in EPS and a 141% jump from last year. the next question is whether that was a spike or a new run rate.
next check-in
next report expected in may
for a stock near its high, timing matters. the next earnings print will tell you whether the margin tailwind is still doing the work.
valuation risk
current price versus $186 midpoint target
the stock is already above the 3–5 year target midpoint. that does not make it impossible to own. it does mean you need the estimates to keep moving up.
Analyst rankings
short-term outlook
top 20%
momentum score 2 — analysts expect above-average price performance in the year ahead. in human-speak, they still like the near-term setup.
risk profile
average
stability score 3 — this is neither a bunker stock nor a chaos stock. it is average risk with above-average cycle exposure.
chart momentum
average
technical score 3 — the chart is not flashing anything dramatic. most of the case still comes from earnings, not tape-reading.
earnings predictability
5 / 100
predictability is low. in plain english: expect the quarterly numbers to swing with refining conditions, and expect the stock to react.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
institutions have been net selling for 3 consecutive quarters — 674 buyers vs. 679 sellers in 3q2025. total institutional holdings: 0.2B shares. net selling for 3 quarters.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
$114
$257
$204
current price
$186
target midpoint · 9% from current · 3-5yr high: $295 (+45% · 11% ann'l return)
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