Start here if you're new
what it is
MP digs rare-earth materials in California and turns them into metals used in magnets, motors, and industrial gear.
how it gets paid
Last year Mp Materials made $224M in revenue. Rare-earth concentrate sales was the main engine at $74M, or 33% of sales.
why it's growing
Revenue grew 10.1% last year. Revenue rose 221% vs. prior year to $172M.
what just happened
Revenue hit $172M, but EPS was -$0.57.
At a glance
B+ balance sheet — decent shape, but not bulletproof
25/100 earnings predictability — expect surprises
59.2x trailing p/e — you're paying up for this one
9.5% return on capital — nothing to write home about
xvary composite: 34/100 — weak
What they do
MP digs rare-earth materials in California and turns them into metals used in magnets, motors, and industrial gear.
Mountain Pass is the only rare-earth mine in the U.S. That makes your supply chain a domestic bottleneck, not a shopping choice. In 2024, it produced about 20% of the rare-earth materials consumed worldwide.
How they make money
$224M
annual revenue · their business grew +10.1% last year
Rare-earth concentrate sales
$74M
Separated oxides
$61M
Magnet materials
$47M
Refining and other
$42M
The products that matter
mines and sells rare earth materials
Rare Earth Oxides
$224M revenue
it's the entire reported revenue base today at $224M, and it grew 30.7% last year. for now, this is the business paying for the bigger ambition.
core
Key numbers
$0.90
fy2026 eps est
$1B
fy2028 rev est
59.2x
trailing p/e
n/a
dividend yield
Financial health
B+
strength
- balance sheet grade B+ — solid but not elite
- risk rank 4 — safer than 20% of stocks
- price stability 5 / 100
- long-term debt $930M (9% of capital)
- net profit margin 35.7% — keeps 36 cents of every dollar in revenue
- return on equity 12% — $0.12 profit for every $1 investors have put in
B+ — functional but not a standout on the balance sheet.
Total return vs. market
You invested $10,000 in MP 3 years ago → it's now worth $18,200.
The index would have given you $13,920.
source: institutional data · total return
What just happened
missed estimates
Revenue hit $172M, but EPS was -$0.57.
Sales jumped 221% from a year earlier, but the company still posted a loss. The gap says volume improved faster than cost control.
$172M
revenue
$0.57
eps
66.6%
operating margin
the number that mattered
Revenue rose 221% vs. prior year to $172M, but the company still lost $0.57 a share.
-
mp materials corp. has signed an international joint venture agreement.
-
the deal was inked in early november with the saudi arabian mining company (maaden) and the u.s.
-
department of war (dow) to establish a rare earth refinery in saudi arabia.
-
the joint venture was structured so that maaden will hold a 51% controlling stake.
-
in return, it will provide capital, infrastructure and access to a reliable, low-cost energy base.
source: company earnings report, 2026
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What could go wrong
the #1 risk is rare earth pricing staying weak while downstream projects ramp.
med
rare earth price volatility
MP sells into a market where pricing can move hard and fast. When your current revenue base is only $224M, commodity swings do not stay small for long.
This is the direct hit risk. Weak pricing pressures revenue, margins, and the market's patience at the same time.
med
single-business concentration
About 65% of sales are concentrated in primary products. That means the company is still far less diversified than the long-term supply-chain story implies.
If the core product stumbles, there is not much else in the current model to absorb the shock.
med
fort worth magnet ramp
The downstream magnet strategy is the whole reason many investors are here. Delays, under-utilization, or cost overruns would leave you with a good mine and a thinner growth story.
That is the quiet part: the stock is not priced like a mine. It is priced like an integrated platform.
med
capital efficiency
Return on capital is 5.0%. For a capital-heavy expansion, that is a weak starting point. More spending only helps if returns rise with it.
If revenue scales but returns stay low, shareholders fund growth without getting much compounding back.
With about 65% of sales tied to primary products, a downturn in that market reaches more than $145M of annual revenue before the downstream story has much room to help.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
earnings
next report in february
You need to see whether the latest -$0.24 EPS quarter was a dip or a pattern.
metric
return on capital above 5.0%
If capital efficiency does not improve from here, the expansion story stays expensive.
risk
downstream execution
The magnet and refining build-out is what separates a strategic asset from a strategic narrative.
trend
rare earth pricing
This revenue base is still exposed to commodity moves, and $224M is not a large cushion.
Analyst rankings
short-term outlook
bottom 5%
momentum score 5 — the lowest rating. in human-speak, the model does not like the near-term setup.
risk profile
below average
stability score 4 — more volatile than most stocks. You should expect wider swings here.
chart momentum
top 20%
technical score 2 — the chart looks better than the business right now.
earnings predictability
25 / 100
Low predictability means earnings are harder to model. Translation: brace for surprises.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
institutions have been net buying for 3 consecutive quarters — 420 buyers vs. 248 sellers in 3q2025. total institutional holdings: 0.1B shares. net buying for 3 quarters.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
$17
$81
$53
current price
$49
target midpoint · 8% from current · 3-5yr high: $70 (+30% · 7% ann'l return)
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