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what it is
Mosaic makes crop nutrients like phosphate and potash, then sells them to farmers who need yields, not stories.
how it gets paid
Last year Mosaic made $12.1B in revenue. Phosphate fertilizers was the main engine at $4.8B, or 40% of sales.
why it's growing
Revenue grew 8.4% last year. Quarterly revenue was $9.1 billion, up 163% vs. prior year, but profit did not follow.
what just happened
Mosaic posted EPS of $0.22 versus a $0.77 estimate, a 71.43% miss.
At a glance
B++ balance sheet — above average — nothing keeping you up at night
20/100 earnings predictability — expect surprises
6.1x trailing p/e — the market's not buying it — or you found a deal
3.7% dividend yield — cash in your pocket every quarter
6.0% return on capital — nothing to write home about
xvary composite: 57/100 — below average
What they do
Mosaic makes crop nutrients like phosphate and potash, then sells them to farmers who need yields, not stories.
You are buying rocks that farms cannot skip. Mosaic is one of the world's leading phosphate and potash producers, and it runs mines, processing, and distribution across North and South America. That scale matters when annual revenue is $12.1 billion and smaller rivals cannot spread costs the same way.
How they make money
$12.1B
annual revenue · their business grew +8.4% last year
Phosphate fertilizers
$4.8B
Potash fertilizers
$3.6B
Mosaic Fertilizantes
$2.4B
Blending and distribution
$0.8B
Animal feed products
$0.5B
The products that matter
produces and sells crop nutrients
Phosphate and Potash
$12.1B · 100% of revenue
it's the whole company. all $12.1B of revenue comes from selling crop nutrients, so the cycle decides more than management does.
entire business
Key numbers
6.1x
trailing p/e
Jargon → price-to-earnings → how much you pay for each dollar of profit → so what: Mosaic is priced like profits are about to shrink.
$12.1B
annual revenue
This is a large, real business, not a tiny cyclical flyer, which makes the low valuation stand out more.
3.7%
dividend yield
You are paid while you wait, but only if earnings hold up enough to support the payout.
$3.4B
long-term debt
Debt is 30% of capital, which is manageable until fertilizer prices remind you commodities do not care about your spreadsheet.
Financial health
B++
strength
- balance sheet grade B++ — above average financial health
- risk rank 3 — safer than 50% of stocks
- price stability 35 / 100
- long-term debt $3.4B (30% of capital)
- net profit margin 6.6% — keeps 7 cents of every dollar in revenue
- return on equity 7% — $0.07 profit for every $1 investors have put in
B++ — functional but not a standout on the balance sheet.
Total return vs. market
You invested $10,000 in MOS 3 years ago → it's now worth $5,990.
The index would have given you $13,920.
source: institutional data · total return
What just happened
missed estimates
Mosaic posted EPS of $0.22 versus a $0.77 estimate, a 71.43% miss.
Quarterly revenue was $9.1 billion, up 163% vs. prior year, but profit did not follow. The gap tells you pricing, costs, or mix mattered more than raw sales growth.
$3.0B
revenue
$0.22
eps
17.2%
gross margin
the number that mattered
The 71.43% EPS miss matters most because cheap commodity stocks stay cheap when the market stops trusting the earnings line.
-
indeed, it has dropped over 30% since our late-september review.
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stripping out secondand third-quarter foreign currency translation gains, fundamental operating results missed wall street’s expectations.in addition, in october and november, mechanical breakdowns and utility disruptions led to production shortfalls. general macroeconomic headwinds, such as trade policy uncertainties, also negatively affected investor sentiment.
-
this is a good time to buy the stock.
-
it’s selling well below intrinsic value.
-
company efforts to improve operating efficiencies are starting to pay off.a big cost reduction program at mosaic’s brazilian plant has resulted in $110 million in efficiency gains. moreover, demand for potash and phosphate is increasing as more crops are being grown in africa, india, and south america to feed growing populations. meanwhile, global supply of these chemicals is declining due to china keeping its production at home to feed its own population. furthermore, the secondand third-largest potash producers in the world (belarus and russia) are being prevented from exporting their product due to heavy sanctions.
source: company earnings report, 2026
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What could go wrong
the #1 risk is fertilizer price and demand compression.
high
fertilizer price and farm demand slump
100% of Mosaic's $12.1B revenue comes from crop nutrients. if farmers buy less or realized prices fall, the whole income statement feels it.
this risk hits revenue, margins, and sentiment at once. there is no second segment to offset it.
high
production reliability
mechanical breakdowns and utility disruptions already led to production shortfalls. in a volume business, lost tons are lost revenue.
the latest quarter already showed what this looks like: weaker output right when investors wanted cleaner execution.
med
trade policy shocks
trade policy uncertainties were specifically called out as a headwind. that matters in a globally traded fertilizer market.
policy noise can pressure shipment timing, pricing, and investor confidence even when underlying demand holds up.
med
thin returns in a capital-heavy business
a 5.0% return on capital, 6.8% net margin, and $3.4B of long-term debt leave less room for mistakes than the cheap multiple suggests.
if the cycle softens, the stock can stay optically cheap for longer than value investors want.
all of MOS's $12.1B revenue sits inside the fertilizer cycle, and the 35/100 price stability score tells you the market already knows it.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
catalyst
6.1x p/e vs. 32.8% revenue growth
that gap is the entire debate: cheap cyclical earnings, or a rebound the market still does not trust.
flow
three straight quarters of net institutional buying
356 buyers vs. 310 sellers in 3q2025 is not euphoric. it is enough to matter.
risk
production reliability
mechanical breakdowns and utility disruptions already hurt output. the next clean quarter matters more than management adjectives.
setup
fy2026 estimates are the new bar
the current setup is $2.80 EPS and $13B revenue. if Mosaic misses both, the low multiple stops looking cheap.
Analyst rankings
short-term outlook
average
momentum score 3 — in human-speak, analysts do not see a short-term edge yet.
risk profile
average
stability score 3 — about middle of the pack. not a bunker stock, not a disaster.
chart momentum
average
technical score 3 — the chart is not flashing anything special right now.
earnings predictability
20 / 100
earnings are hard to model here because fertilizer pricing and production issues do not move in straight lines.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
institutions have been net buying for 3 consecutive quarters — 356 buyers vs. 310 sellers in 3q2025. total institutional holdings: 0.3B shares. net buying for 3 quarters.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
$19
$42
$25
current price
$31
target midpoint · +25% from current · 3-5yr high: $55 (+120% · 24% ann'l return)
Want the deeper analysis?
The full deep dive: dcf model, scenario analysis, competitive moat breakdown, and quarterly tracking — everything on this page, taken further.
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