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what it is
Molina runs health plans for 5.5 million people on Medicaid, Medicare, and other government programs across 19 states.
how it gets paid
Last year Molina Healthcare made $45.4B in revenue. Medicaid was the main engine at $36.8B, or 81% of sales.
why it's growing
Revenue grew 11.7% last year. The 94.6% medical cost ratio mattered most because it tells you the quarter was lost on pricing and claims.
what just happened
Q4 2025 revenue rose to $11.38B, but Molina still posted a $2.75 per-share loss as medical costs blew out.
At a glance
B+ balance sheet — decent shape, but not bulletproof
85/100 earnings predictability — you can trust these numbers
12.3x trailing p/e — the market's not buying it — or you found a deal
6.0% return on capital — nothing to write home about
xvary composite: 51/100 — below average
What they do
Molina runs health plans for 5.5 million people on Medicaid, Medicare, and other government programs across 19 states.
Molina wins by living where many insurers do not: government-sponsored health plans for lower-income members. It served 5.5 million members as of 12/31/25, and changing plans is messy for you and your doctor network. That creates switching costs (hard to leave) so what: Molina keeps a large, recurring premium base even when the sector gets ugly.
How they make money
$45.4B
annual revenue · their business grew +11.7% last year
Medicaid
$36.8B
+12.0%
Medicare
$5.0B
+6.0%
Marketplace
$2.7B
+18.0%
Other
$0.9B
+4.0%
The products that matter
administers medicaid and medicare coverage
Government-sponsored health plans
$45.4B revenue · effectively the whole business
it's effectively the entire $45.4B business in this snapshot. that scale matters, but with a 0.7% net margin, claim costs matter more.
entire story
Key numbers
$173
18-month target
That is 27.8% above the $135.35 share price, which says the stock looks cheap if profits stabilize.
1.1%
net margin
Net margin means profit after all costs. Plain English: Molina keeps barely a penny per dollar. So what: small mistakes hit earnings fast.
91.7%
medical cost ratio
Medical cost ratio means how much premium revenue goes to patient care. Plain English: $91.70 of every $100 went to claims. So what: there is not much left for profit.
$3.8B
long-term debt
Debt equals 35% of capital, which is fine in calm markets but less fun when EPS falls from $11.03 to an estimated $5.60.
Financial health
B+
strength
- balance sheet grade B+ — solid but not elite
- risk rank 3 — safer than 50% of stocks
- price stability 40 / 100
- long-term debt $3.8B (35% of capital)
- net profit margin 1.1% — keeps 1 cents of every dollar in revenue
- return on equity 10% — $0.10 profit for every $1 investors have put in
B+ — functional but not a standout on the balance sheet.
Total return vs. market
You invested $10,000 in MOH 3 years ago → it's now worth $4,520.
The index would have given you $13,880.
source: institutional data · total return
What just happened
missed estimates
Q4 2025 revenue rose to $11.38B, but Molina still posted a $2.75 per-share loss as medical costs blew out.
Premium revenue reached $10.7 billion in the quarter, up with revenue, but the medical cost ratio hit 94.6%. Plain English: almost every premium dollar went to care. So what: revenue growth did not turn into earnings.
$11.38B
revenue
$2.75
eps
94.6%
medical cost ratio
the number that mattered
The 94.6% medical cost ratio mattered most because it tells you the quarter was lost on pricing and claims, not on demand.
-
molina healthcare reported another quarter of disappointing results in the december interim.
-
despite fourth-quarter revenue increasing 8% vs. prior year, to $11.38 billion, with premium revenue registering at $10.70 billion, earnings once again were adversely impacted by unfavorable trends within the medical cost environment.
-
molina’s consolidated medical cost ratio (mcr) for the quarter was 94.6%, up sequentially from 92.6%, continuing to reflect rising costs within behavioral, pharmacy, and inpatient and outpatient care.
-
full-year 2025 consolidated mcr checked in at 91.7%, compared with 89.1% in 2024.
-
much of the increase came in the back half of the year.
source: company earnings report, 2026
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What could go wrong
the #1 risk is medical cost inflation inside Molina's medicaid and medicare plans.
med
care costs keep rising faster than pricing
The latest quarterly MCR was 94.6%, up from 92.6% sequentially. If that level holds, the spread Molina earns between premiums and claims stays under pressure even if revenue keeps growing.
with a 1.5% operating margin and a 0.7% net margin, even small claim-cost misses do outsized damage to profit
med
government reimbursement fails to catch up
Molina's business sits inside government-sponsored plans. If reimbursement rates lag utilization and acuity, the company cannot raise price the way a typical commercial insurer might.
this touches effectively the entire $45.4B revenue base because government contracts are the business
med
the earnings rebound shows up later than the market expects
The street sees FY2026 revenue at $44B and FY2027 EPS at $6.50. If margins stay weak while revenue flattens, the low multiple stops looking cheap and starts looking accurate.
the stock already sits about 33% below its 52-week high, which tells you patience is not unlimited
A higher care-cost trend pressures profit across a $45.4B revenue base, and Molina only keeps 0.7% of revenue as net income to begin with.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
earnings
medical cost ratio in the next quarter
94.6% was the number that broke the quarter. If MCR does not improve, the recovery story gets pushed out again.
metric
whether revenue holds near $44B–$45.4B
Last year's revenue was $45.4B. The FY2026 estimate is $44B. That is the gap between a pause and a slowdown.
risk
reimbursement and policy updates
This is a government-program business. When pricing rules change, margins feel it fast.
trend
whether EPS starts rebuilding toward $6.50
That is the full-year 2027 estimate. If quarterly earnings keep missing that path, the market will not wait around politely.
Analyst rankings
short-term outlook
below average
momentum score 4 — in human-speak, analysts think the near-term setup is weak.
risk profile
average
stability score 3 — this is not a bunker stock, but it is not a chaos stock either.
chart momentum
average
technical score 3 — there is no clean momentum signal here. The stock needs fundamentals to do the work.
earnings predictability
85 / 100
management has usually produced steady numbers. That is why a 73% EPS drop got the market's attention.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
institutions have been net buying for 2 consecutive quarters — 372 buyers vs. 314 sellers in 3q2025. total institutional holdings: 56.8M shares. net buying for 2 quarters.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
$99
$246
$135
current price
$173
target midpoint · +28% from current · 3-5yr high: $190 (+40% · 9% ann'l return)
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