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what it is
Mach Natural drills for oil and gas in the Anadarko Basin, then uses its own pipes, plants, and water systems to move it.
how it gets paid
Last year Mach Natural Res made $1.2B in revenue. oil sales was the main engine at $0.54B, or 45% of sales.
why it's growing
Revenue grew 21.2% last year. EDGAR shows Revenue up 189% vs. prior year and EPS up 311% vs. prior year.
what just happened
Revenue hit $788M and EPS reached $0.59, showing just how violently acquisitions can change the headline.
At a glance
B+ balance sheet — decent shape, but not bulletproof
11.4x trailing p/e — the market's not buying it — or you found a deal
14.4% dividend yield — cash in your pocket every quarter
12.7% return on capital — nothing to write home about
$1.90 fy2024 eps est
xvary composite: 45/100 — below average
What they do
Mach Natural drills for oil and gas in the Anadarko Basin, then uses its own pipes, plants, and water systems to move it.
You are not just buying wells. You are buying the pipes, processing plants, and water systems around them. That cuts handoffs and keeps more cash in-house. The proof is physical: its first two-well Deep Anadarko pad delivered more than 40 mmcf/d from roughly 25,000 feet of laterals, with more wells scheduled through 2026.
How they make money
$1.2B
annual revenue · their business grew +21.2% last year
oil sales
$0.54B
natural gas sales
$0.30B
ngl sales
$0.24B
midstream and water services
$0.12B
The products that matter
oil and gas production
Anadarko basin assets
705 MMBoe proved reserves
this basin is part of the reserve base that climbed 109% to 705 MMBoe. that matters because reserves are tomorrow's inventory in a business that sells depletion for a living.
core reserve base
natural gas drilling
San Juan basin assets
$315M–$360M 2026 capex plan
san juan sits inside a 2026 capital plan of $315M–$360M. if well costs come down, cash flow gets room to breathe. if they do not, the dividend math gets tighter.
execution test
acquired production base
Permian basin assets
109% reserve increase
these assets were part of the expansion that more than doubled proved reserves. bigger scale helps, but only if the acquired barrels convert into durable margin instead of higher complexity.
scale, not certainty
Key numbers
14.4%
dividend yield
Yield → your cash payout rate → so what: this stock is being sold as income first and everything else second.
20.8%
operating margin
Operating margin → profit after running the business → so what: about $0.21 of every revenue dollar is left before interest and taxes.
12.7%
return on capital
Return on capital → profit earned on money invested → so what: the assets are productive, but not magical.
$1.2B
long-term debt
Long-term debt → money owed for years → so what: the balance sheet can function, but commodity price drops hit harder with 33% of capital funded by debt.
Financial health
B+
strength
- balance sheet grade B+ — solid but not elite
- risk rank 3 — safer than 50% of stocks
- price stability 55 / 100
- long-term debt $1.2B (33% of capital)
B+ — functional but not a standout on the balance sheet.
Total return vs. market
Return history isn't available for MNR right now.
source: institutional data · return history unavailable
What just happened
beat estimates
Revenue hit $788M and EPS reached $0.59, showing just how violently acquisitions can change the headline.
EDGAR shows quarterly revenue up 189% vs. prior year and EPS up 311% vs. prior year. Quarterly EPS in the 2024 run-rate ranged from $0.35 to $0.70, which tells you this business is profitable but bouncy.
$788M
revenue
$0.59
eps
20.8%
operating margin
the number that mattered
$788 million mattered most because scale is what supports debt service and a 14.4% payout story.
source: company earnings report, 2026
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What could go wrong
the #1 risk here is a dividend cut driven by uncovered payouts.
high
uncovered distribution
the headline yield is 14.4%, but the current payout is not covered by earnings. that makes the income stream a variable, not a bond coupon.
if coverage does not improve, the easiest fix is a lower distribution.
high
margin compression
net margin fell to 13.1% from 39.6% even with a 58% gross margin. translation: field-level economics still looked fine, but the rest of the business took a much bigger bite.
less margin means less cash for drilling, debt service, and distributions.
med
capex execution
management plans to spend $315M–$360M in 2026. that is a large ask for a company with a $2B market cap and a payout investors already question.
if returns on that spend disappoint, you get weaker cash flow and a weaker income case at the same time.
med
commodity-price exposure
this is an upstream producer. all of the revenue story comes from oil, natural gas, and NGL sales. there is no services cushion, no branded premium, and no moat to soften a price downturn.
a weaker tape can hit revenue, margins, and dividend confidence all at once.
a 14.4% yield, $315M–$360M of planned capex, and $1.2B of long-term debt can coexist — but not comfortably if 13.1% net margins are the new normal.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
metric
distribution coverage
this is the whole story in one line. if earnings and cash generation do not cover the payout, the 14.4% yield is marketing, not durability.
calendar
q1 2026 earnings report
scheduled for may 14, 2026. consensus eps is $0.34. you want less talk about reserves and more proof on coverage, margins, and spending discipline.
trend
san juan well costs
management is trying to lower drilling costs there. if costs improve, the 2026 capital plan looks strategic. if not, it looks expensive.
risk
debt staying near $1.2B
you can carry debt in this business. you just cannot fund a high payout, heavy capex, and creeping leverage forever. one of those three usually gives first.
Analyst rankings
coverage quality
thin
in human-speak, there is not enough broad published ranking data here to outsource your judgment to consensus.
estimate signal
mixed
the street had q4 too low, which is why MNR beat. that does not settle the bigger question around margin durability and payout coverage.
usefulness of targets
limited
for a high-yield upstream name, targets matter less than whether the next few quarters prove the distribution is earned.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
institutional ownership data for MNR is being compiled.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
n/a
n/a
$11
current price
n/a
target midpoint · n/a from current
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