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what it is
MediciNova develops experimental drugs for brain, lung, and liver diseases.
how it gets paid
Last year Medicinova made $410K in revenue. MN-166 collaboration revenue was the main engine at $170K, or 42% of sales.
what just happened
Revenue hit $258K, and EPS was still -$0.19.
At a glance
B balance sheet — gets the job done, barely
65/100 earnings predictability — reasonably predictable
-$0.23 fy2024 eps est
$1M fy2023 rev est
n/a operating margin
xvary composite: 49/100 — below average
What they do
MediciNova develops experimental drugs for brain, lung, and liver diseases.
The moat is not sales. It is 3 shots on goal: MN-166, MN-001, and MN-221. With 13 employees, your overhead stays tiny, but your outcome rides on trial data from 3 programs.
How they make money
$410K
annual revenue
MN-166 collaboration revenue
$170K
flat
MN-001 collaboration revenue
$110K
flat
MN-221 collaboration revenue
$80K
up
Other research revenue
$50K
dn
The products that matter
partnered research revenue
Collaboration Revenue
$410K disclosed
this is the only clearly disclosed operating revenue stream on the page, and it is just $410K. useful as a proof point. irrelevant as a business model.
tiny today
lead clinical asset
MN-166 (Ibudilast)
pre-revenue
there is no product revenue here yet. the market cares anyway because the whole company is worth about $66M and the lead asset carries most of the future value argument.
the thesis
balance sheet runway
Cash Balance
$30.8M · $0 debt
this is the thing keeping the story alive. management says current cash funds operations for more than 3 years at the present burn rate. that is not success. it is time.
buys time
Key numbers
$410K
annual revenue
This is the whole revenue base for FY2024. Against a $66M market cap, you are paying for pipeline hope, not current sales.
$258K
latest quarter
This quarter is the cleanest proof of traction. It is also tiny for a public biotech company.
$66M
market cap
That is the price of the equity market's belief. It is enormous next to $410K in annual revenue.
$0M
long-term debt
No debt is helpful, but it does not create revenue. It only buys time for trial data.
Financial health
B
strength
- balance sheet grade B — adequate — nothing special
- risk rank 3 — safer than 50% of stocks
- price stability 20 / 100
- long-term debt $0M (0% of capital)
B — functional but not a standout on the balance sheet.
Total return vs. market
Return history isn't available for MNOV right now.
source: institutional data · return history unavailable
What just happened
missed estimates
Revenue hit $258K, and EPS was still -$0.19.
Revenue rose 109% from a year earlier, but the business still ran at a loss. That is a lab bill, not a cash machine.
$258K
revenue
$0.19
eps
n/a
n/a
quarter revenue
The $258K quarter matters because it is the clearest sign of activity, but it is still tiny next to a $66M market cap.
source: company earnings report, 2026
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What could go wrong
MNOV does not have enough revenue to cushion a mistake. If MN-166 weakens, if burn rises, or if time stretches, the balance sheet stops looking like optionality and starts looking like a countdown.
med
MN-166 stops being thesis-worthy
This is the main event. If the lead program loses clinical or commercial relevance, investors are left with a company producing $1M of annual revenue and burning $12M a year.
That would hit the entire equity story, not one division, because the pipeline is the business case.
med
cash runway proves shorter than it looks
Management says $30.8M funds more than 3 years of operations at the current burn rate. If spending rises or timelines slip, that cushion shrinks faster than the headline suggests.
For you, the practical consequence is dilution risk arriving before any product revenue does.
med
the cash-to-market-cap discount narrows the wrong way
At a $66M market cap and $30.8M of cash, a large part of the equity value sits close to the balance sheet. That sounds comforting until cash starts moving lower without a stronger asset story.
Then the market stops valuing optionality and starts valuing residual cash, which is usually a harsher math exercise.
A company losing $12M on $1M of annual revenue has one job: make the pipeline matter before the runway becomes the only thing anyone talks about.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
risk
MN-166 staying thesis-worthy
This is the stock. If the lead program gets weaker, $1M of annual revenue will not defend the valuation for you.
metric
cash versus annual loss
$30.8M of cash against a $12M annual loss is workable today. If that gap narrows without a clearer path to monetize the pipeline, the financing question gets louder.
calendar
the next corporate update
Use the next update to check whether management extends runway, sharpens the development path, or simply repeats the same thesis with less time on the clock.
trend
whether the story shifts from cash to progress
Right now the investment case is dominated by what the business is not. Real improvement starts when program progress matters more than the absence of sales.
Analyst rankings
short-term outlook
mixed
analyst target data is thin here. in human-speak: there is no crowd consensus doing the work for you.
risk profile
volatile
price stability scores 20 / 100. translation: even if beta looks moderate, the stock can still behave like headline-driven biotech.
chart momentum
catalyst-led
this name is more likely to move on trial relevance, financing signals, or pipeline updates than on tidy technical patterns.
earnings predictability
65/100
that is relatively stable for a company this early, but it mostly reflects a business that is consistently unprofitable, not a mature earnings engine.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
institutional ownership data for MNOV is being compiled.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
n/a
n/a
$1
current price
n/a
target midpoint · n/a from current
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