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what it is
Mueller makes the tubes, fittings, rods, valves, and metal parts that keep plumbing, HVAC, and industrial systems working.
how it gets paid
Last year Mueller Inds made $4.2B in revenue. Copper tube and fittings was the main engine at $1.55B, or 37% of sales.
why it's growing
Revenue grew 10.9% last year. Mueller still posted record 2025 profits, with full-year EPS up 23% to $6.52 on an 11% sales increase.
what just happened
The quarter said the quiet part out loud: EPS was $1.38, below the $1.61 consensus estimate.
At a glance
A+ balance sheet — rock-solid finances — built to survive anything
55/100 earnings predictability — expect surprises
18.3x trailing p/e — priced about right
1.1% dividend yield — cash in your pocket every quarter
23.0% return on capital — every dollar works hard here
xvary composite: 69/100 — average
What they do
Mueller makes the tubes, fittings, rods, valves, and metal parts that keep plumbing, HVAC, and industrial systems working.
This wins by selling the parts your building cannot skip. Copper tube, brass rod, plastic fittings, and refrigeration valves are not glamorous, but they sit inside repair and replacement markets where delivery and product breadth matter more than storytelling. You can see the edge in the numbers: operating margin was 25.5% and return on capital (profit per dollar invested) was 23.0%, which means this plain-parts business earns better than many flashier industrial names.
How they make money
$4.2B
annual revenue · their business grew +10.9% last year
Copper tube and fittings
$1.55B
Brass and copper alloy rod, bar, and shapes
$1.05B
Refrigeration valves and fittings
$0.74B
Plastic fittings and valves
$0.46B
Aluminum and brass forgings and extrusions
$0.40B
The products that matter
manufactures metal components
Copper Tube and Fittings
$4.2B company revenue
this snapshot does not give a full segment breakout, so the cleanest read is the company-level one: $4.2B of revenue, 29.9% growth last year, and a business centered on metal products that move with construction and industrial demand.
core
Key numbers
25.5%
operating margin
Operating margin → cash left after paying to run the business → so what: Mueller keeps about $0.26 from each sales dollar before interest and taxes, which is elite for a parts maker.
23.0%
return on capital
Return on capital → profit per dollar invested → so what: every $1 Mueller puts into the business generates about $0.23 in profit, a sign the boring stuff is priced well.
$5.0B
2027 revenue
Management's long-range revenue path points to a bigger base, but only modestly. That tells you the story is quality and margins, not hypergrowth.
18.3x
trailing p/e
Trailing P/E → how many dollars investors pay for $1 of past earnings → so what: you are paying a premium for durability, not a bargain-bin cyclical.
Financial health
A+
strength
- balance sheet grade A+ — near the highest rating possible
- risk rank 3 — safer than 50% of stocks
- price stability 60 / 100
- net profit margin 18.1% — keeps 18 cents of every dollar in revenue
- return on equity 23% — $0.23 profit for every $1 investors have put in
A+ with balance sheet grade and net profit margin standing out. your money faces less risk here than at most public companies.
Total return vs. market
You invested $10,000 in MLI 3 years ago → it's now worth $34,080.
The index would have given you $13,880.
source: institutional data · total return
What just happened
missed estimates
The quarter said the quiet part out loud: EPS was $1.38, below the $1.61 consensus estimate.
Mueller still posted record 2025 profits, with full-year EPS up 23% to $6.52 on an 11% sales increase. The issue is timing: after a 45% stock run, investors wanted a cleaner finish.
$1.05B
revenue
$1.38
eps
7.9%
gross margin
the number that mattered
The 14.29% EPS miss mattered more than the revenue print because this stock is now priced for execution, not excuses.
-
mueller industries registered record profits in 2025.
-
earnings per share soared 23% to $6.52 on an 11% sales increase.
-
as a result, the stock returned 45% last year, while many of its peers in the building supply industry posted lackluster returns.
-
fourth-quarter results may be a reason for caution.although the earnings comparison was positive in the final quarter, operating income was flat versus the prior year. a $4 million swing in losses on the disposition of assets and an impairment charge contributed to the underperformance.
-
still, the stock has sold off sharply in recent weeks, after a multi-year run.
source: company earnings report, 2026
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What could go wrong
the #1 risk is copper and aluminum input-cost swings.
med
raw material price volatility
Mueller buys and processes metal for a living. When copper and aluminum move sharply, pricing and margins can move with them.
This pressure reaches essentially the whole $4.2B revenue base, because metal costs sit near the center of the business model.
med
construction and industrial slowdown
Demand for tube, fittings, and related products depends on construction, HVAC, refrigeration, and broader industrial activity. Those end markets do not move in a straight line.
Last year's 29.9% revenue growth is the bull case. A weaker building cycle would test how repeatable that number really was.
med
margin compression
An 18.9% net margin is unusually strong for a manufacturer with commodity exposure. That is great while it lasts and painful if it normalizes.
If margins slip, the market may stop rewarding the stock with an 18.3x trailing earnings multiple.
med
operating income stalling
Fourth-quarter operating income was flat despite positive EPS comparisons. That can be an early sign that earnings quality is cooling.
If operating income stays flat again, the case for a durable premium margin profile gets weaker very quickly.
Copper and aluminum cost swings hit essentially the whole $4.2B business, and recent flat operating income shows how quickly that pressure can show up in results.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
earnings
next report in may
One more quarter of flat operating income would matter more than another decent EPS headline.
metric
net margin vs. 18.9%
That near-19% margin is the whole reason this business looks better than a plain cyclical manufacturer.
risk
copper and aluminum prices
Input-cost moves can hit margins fast, especially when customers resist price increases.
trend
revenue path toward $5B
The market is still underwriting growth. Missing that revenue path would change the tone around the stock.
Analyst rankings
short-term outlook
average
momentum score 3. in human-speak, analysts see a normal near-term setup, not a stock with unusual upside urgency.
risk profile
average
stability score 3. You are not buying a bunker stock, but you are not buying a chaos machine either.
chart momentum
average
technical score 3. The chart says consolidation, not breakout.
earnings predictability
55 / 100
earnings can surprise you here. That is normal for businesses tied to metal prices and end-market demand.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
institutions have been net buying for 3 consecutive quarters — 323 buyers vs. 273 sellers in 3q2025. total institutional holdings: 98.7M shares. net buying for 3 quarters.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
$92
$193
$119
current price
$143
target midpoint · +20% from current · 3-5yr high: $190 (+60% · 13% ann'l return)
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