Start here if you're new
what it is
Melco owns casino resorts in Macau, the Philippines, and Cyprus, and 88% of its revenue comes from gambling.
how it gets paid
Last year Mlco made $5.2B in revenue. Casinos was the main engine at $4.6B, or 88% of sales.
why it's growing
Revenue grew 11.3% last year. Earnings growth, however, is likely to moderate as favorable hold normalizes, promotional intensity stays elevated, operating costs trend higher, and comparisons versus the prior year get tougher after big rebounds.
what just happened
Melco's last report beat profit estimates by 100%, with EPS of $0.16 versus the $0.08 consensus.
At a glance
B balance sheet — gets the job done, barely
20/100 earnings predictability — expect surprises
13.7x trailing p/e — the market's not buying it — or you found a deal
17.0% return on capital — nothing to write home about
xvary composite: 38/100 — weak
What they do
Melco owns casino resorts in Macau, the Philippines, and Cyprus, and 88% of its revenue comes from gambling.
This is a location business wearing a casino badge. Macau produced 84% of 2024 revenue, and Melco owns major properties there, including City of Dreams and Studio City. When demand rebounds in that market, your revenue moves fast because the buildings are already there and operating margin was 11.6%.
How they make money
$5.2B
annual revenue · their business grew +11.3% last year
Casinos
$4.6B
+11.3%
Rooms
$0.5B
+11.3%
Entertainment and retail
$0.2B
+11.3%
Other
$0.0B
flat
The products that matter
integrated resort operations
Asian resort portfolio
$5.2B company revenue
it's the core operating base behind the full $5.2B revenue line, but this snapshot does not break out property-level sales. that's a data limitation you should know, not a detail to hide.
main engine
casino and gaming floors
Gaming operations
27.0% operating margin
the operating margin tells you the resorts can throw off real property-level earnings. the problem is that a 6.7% net margin shows much less of that reaches shareholders.
margin watch
european resort exposure
Cyprus operations
part of the $5.2B total
Cyprus matters because it adds geography beyond Asia, but the snapshot provides no standalone revenue figure. if you want the next layer of conviction, that's one of the missing numbers.
thin disclosure
Key numbers
84%
Macau revenue
Most of the company still depends on one market, so your upside and downside both run through Macau.
$7.0B
long-term debt
The balance sheet matters here because debt equals 73% of capital, which limits flexibility if business softens.
17.0%
return on capital
Return on capital means profit earned on money invested in the business, so what: Melco's assets are producing solid returns.
13.7x
trailing p/e
Price-to-earnings means how much investors pay for each dollar of profit, so what: the stock is priced like the recovery is still doubted.
Financial health
B
strength
- balance sheet grade B — adequate — nothing special
- risk rank 4 — safer than 20% of stocks
- price stability 10 / 100
- long-term debt $7.0B (73% of capital)
- net profit margin 6.7% — keeps 7 cents of every dollar in revenue
B — functional but not a standout on the balance sheet.
Total return vs. market
You invested $10,000 in MLCO 3 years ago → it's now worth $4,950.
The index would have given you $14,770.
source: institutional data · total return
What just happened
beat estimates
Melco's last report beat profit estimates by 100%, with EPS of $0.16 versus the $0.08 consensus.
The beat fits the broader recovery story. Annual revenue reached $5.2B, up 11.3%, while management said Macau momentum and cost discipline paid off.
$1.3B
ttm revenue
$0.16
last-quarter eps
11.6%
operating margin
the number that mattered
The 100% EPS beat matters because the market expected $0.08 and got $0.16, which says cost control is doing real work.
-
sustained momentum in macau and cost discipline paid off last year.
-
demand rebounded sharply, with october delivering record mass table performance at city of dreams and continued gross gaming revenue growth versus the prior year.incremental gaming capacity, premium mass initiatives, and improved customer engagement supported volumes without sacrificing margins.
-
cost controls remained effective, despite seasonal promotions and one-time events.outside macau, cyprus likely delivered another strong quarter, while balance-sheet actions reduced refinancing risk, supporting earnings quality and operational stability.
-
this year should be solid, though growth may be tempered a bit.we expect the hotelier to benefit from continued strength in premium mass gaming in macau, incremental capacity from reallocated tables and machines, and ongoing product enhancements at city of dreams and studio city. the reopening of the renovated countdown hotel should boost visitation, non-gaming spend, and mix improvement.
-
internationally, cyprus is expected to scale further, while sri lanka gradually ramps.earnings growth, however, is likely to moderate as favorable hold normalizes, promotional intensity remains elevated, operating costs trend higher, and comparisons versus the prior year become more demanding following big rebounds.
source: yahoo finance consensus and company results, 2026
Get this snapshot in your inbox
This page, delivered free — plus weekly updates when the numbers change. plain english, no spam.
weekly updates
earnings alerts
plain english
no spam
What could go wrong
the top risk is $7.0B of long-term debt against a roughly $3B equity value.
high
balance-sheet leverage
Long-term debt is $7.0B, equal to 73% of capital. That's the kind of capital structure that can turn an operating wobble into an equity problem.
$7.0B debt load towers over a ~$3B market cap
high
stock volatility
Price stability is 10/100. In plain English: this stock does not trade like a steady compounder. It trades like a leveraged cyclical name.
volatility risk is flagged by a 10 / 100 stability score
med
unpredictable earnings path
Earnings predictability is 20/100. That means headline valuation multiples can look cheap right before the earnings base moves on you.
20 / 100 predictability leaves room for surprises
med
thin shareholder payoff
Revenue rose 11.3% last year, but net margin was only 6.7% and there is no dividend yield. You need operating gains to keep outrunning financing drag.
only about 7 cents of each revenue dollar reaches net profit
The risk picture is straightforward: $7.0B of debt, 73% of capital, 20/100 earnings predictability, and 10/100 price stability. If revenue growth slips, the equity can feel it fast.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
metric
debt as a share of capital
Right now it's 73%. If that number starts falling, the story changes. If it doesn't, the balance sheet stays in charge.
risk
the gap between operating margin and net margin
27.0% operating margin versus 6.7% net margin is a big drop. That's where financing and other costs are eating your upside.
trend
whether revenue growth keeps outrunning the stock's reputation
Revenue rose 11.3% from last year, but a $10,000 investment became $4,950 over three years. The business and the stock are telling different stories.
calendar
the next filing matters more than the current p/e
This snapshot is light on segment detail. The next filing needs to show whether the recovery is translating into cleaner earnings and less balance-sheet stress.
Analyst rankings
earnings predictability
20 / 100
in human-speak, analysts do not see this as a smooth earnings story. expect swings.
risk rank
4
that's safer than roughly 20% of stocks. translation: this is not where you hide when markets get nervous.
price stability
10 / 100
the stock price has not behaved with much discipline. low stability tends to keep position sizing honest.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
98 buyers vs. 62 sellers in 3q2025. total institutional holdings: 0.1B shares.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
$5
$14
$7
current price
$9
target midpoint · +34% from current · 3-5yr high: $17 (+155% · 27% ann'l return)
Want the deeper analysis?
The full deep dive: dcf model, scenario analysis, competitive moat breakdown, and quarterly tracking — everything on this page, taken further.
see plans from $5/moThe deep dive