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what it is
Magnolia drills for oil and gas in South Texas and sells the production for cash.
how it gets paid
Last year Magnolia Oil & Gas made $1.3B in revenue. Crude oil was the main engine at $0.51B, or 39% of sales.
why growth slowed
Revenue fell 0.3% last year. Gains and losses from hedging activities are largely absent since magnolia makes a point of avoiding such actions.
what just happened
Magnolia posted $0.37 in while revenue hit $994M.
At a glance
B+ balance sheet — decent shape, but not bulletproof
10/100 earnings predictability — expect surprises
12.3x trailing p/e — the market's not buying it — or you found a deal
2.9% dividend yield — cash in your pocket every quarter
16.5% return on capital — nothing to write home about
xvary composite: 54/100 — below average
What they do
Magnolia drills for oil and gas in South Texas and sells the production for cash.
Magnolia controls 1,153,178 net acres in South Texas. That is 1.15 million acres of inventory, not a PowerPoint dream. It also has 1,818 producing wells and 89,707 barrels of oil equivalent a day, so you are buying a built machine, not a startup.
How they make money
$1.3B
annual revenue · their business grew -0.3% last year
Crude oil
$0.51B
Natural gas
$0.35B
Natural gas liquids
$0.22B
Realized hedges
$0.12B
Other production revenue
$0.10B
The products that matter
drills and sells hydrocarbons
Oil and Gas Production
$1.3B revenue
it's the whole business. revenue reached $1.3B last year, but the more recent growth read is +4.2%, which tells you the surge has already cooled.
100% of revenue
Key numbers
$1.3B
annual revenue
That is the size of the whole business. For an energy producer, $1.3B means price swings matter a lot.
33.5%
operating margin
This is the profit left after running the business. A 33.5% margin says the wells still spit out cash after costs.
16.5%
return on capital
Return on capital means profit made on the money tied up in the business. 16.5% says each dollar invested earns a decent haul.
2.9%
dividend yield
That is the cash you get while you wait. A 2.9% yield pays you to own a cyclical oil producer.
Financial health
B+
strength
- balance sheet grade B+ — solid but not elite
- risk rank 3 — safer than 50% of stocks
- price stability 40 / 100
- long-term debt $393M (9% of capital)
- net profit margin 36.9% — keeps 37 cents of every dollar in revenue
- return on equity 22% — $0.22 profit for every $1 investors have put in
B+ — functional but not a standout on the balance sheet.
Total return vs. market
You invested $10,000 in MGY 3 years ago → it's now worth $10,010.
The index would have given you $14,770.
source: institutional data · total return
What just happened
missed estimates
Magnolia posted $0.37 in while revenue hit $994M.
The quarter looked fine on sales, but EPS came in under the $0.45 estimate. The clean read is that production helped, while costs still took a bite.
$0.99B
revenue
$0.37
eps
33.5%
gross margin
the number that mattered
$0.37 mattered because it came in below the $0.45 estimate, a 17.8% miss.
-
magnolia oil & gas’ 2025 revenues should be on a par with those in 2024.
-
although average realized oil and gas prices were lower in 2025, production was higher.like many of its brethren in the u.s. oil patch, magnolia is loath to relinquish market share to opec +.
-
meanwhile, share earnings will likely be down a bit.
-
this is a result of higher costs.gains and losses from hedging activities are largely absent since magnolia makes a point of avoiding such actions. transportation, processing, and drilling expenses rose during the latter nine months of last year, and water disposal costs were higher. many oil patch operators which use fracking methods are having an increasingly hard time obtaining water for fracking, as well as disposing of it in an environmentally friendly way.
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magnolia is expected to exercise greater cost discipline in 2026.it has always prided itself on managing costs during tough times in order to reward its shareholders.
source: company earnings report, 2026
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What could go wrong
the #1 risk is unhedged exposure to oil and gas prices. Magnolia sells one thing, and the market sets the price.
med
oil and gas price swings
100% of Magnolia's $1.3B revenue comes from selling oil and gas. If crude and gas prices weaken, revenue can fall even when production rises.
This is the cleanest risk on the page: commodity prices hit the income statement first and investor sentiment right after.
med
cost inflation in the field
Transportation, processing, and drilling expenses rose during the latter nine months of 2025. That pressures a business currently earning a 29.5% net margin.
If revenue stays flat while service costs rise, the market stops caring that the stock looks cheap at 12.3x earnings.
med
no hedge cushion
Magnolia makes a point of avoiding hedging activity. In plain English: you get more upside when prices cooperate and less protection when they do not.
That can make reported results more volatile, which helps explain the 10/100 earnings predictability score and 40/100 price stability score.
100% of Magnolia's $1.3B revenue is exposed to commodity prices, and the current 2026 revenue estimate already steps down to $1B.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
earnings
next quarterly print
Watch whether quarterly revenue stays near the recent $325M pace and whether full-year EPS still tracks toward $2.10.
risk
cost discipline in 2026
Management's stated answer to higher transportation, processing, and drilling costs is tighter spending. You want proof, not adjectives.
metric
net margin vs. 29.5%
A sub-30% margin is still good in most industries. In this stock, it would signal the cushion is getting thinner.
trend
revenue direction
Last year printed $1.3B. The 2026 estimate is $1B. That gap is the whole near-term debate.
Analyst rankings
short-term outlook
average
momentum score 3. in human-speak, analysts do not see a strong near-term signal either way.
risk profile
average
stability score 3 means the risk sits near the middle of the market — not a bunker stock, not a meltdown profile.
chart momentum
average
technical score 3 says the chart is not screaming anything dramatic right now.
earnings predictability
10 / 100
That is the market's polite way of saying quarterly numbers can get noisy fast.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
institutions have been net selling for 2 consecutive quarters — 168 buyers vs. 191 sellers in 3q2025. total institutional holdings: 0.2B shares. net selling for 2 quarters.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
$17
$39
$22
current price
$28
target midpoint · +26% from current · 3-5yr high: $40 (+80% · 18% ann'l return)
Want the deeper analysis?
The full deep dive: dcf model, scenario analysis, competitive moat breakdown, and quarterly tracking — everything on this page, taken further.
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