Start here if you're new
what it is
MGP makes bourbon, rye, branded spirits, and food ingredient products.
how it gets paid
Last year Mgp Ingredients made $536M in revenue. distilled spirits was the main engine at $302M, or 56% of sales.
why growth slowed
Revenue fell 23.8% last year. Fickle consumer demand, evidenced by constrained spending, and competition from larger industry rivals, continues to prevent mgp ingredients from gaining market share in this category.
what just happened
$0.63 beat the $0.57 estimate, but revenue still fell 23.5% to $138.3M.
At a glance
B+ balance sheet — decent shape, but not bulletproof
70/100 earnings predictability — reasonably predictable
8.8x trailing p/e — the market's not buying it — or you found a deal
2.2% dividend yield — cash in your pocket every quarter
6.5% return on capital — nothing to write home about
xvary composite: 64/100 — average
What they do
MGP makes bourbon, rye, branded spirits, and food ingredient products.
You are buying a company with 660 employees and 34.4% insider ownership. That is not a tiny side project. It sells barrels and brands, from bourbon to Penelope, across a distillery network in Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Missouri, Ohio, Jalisco, and Northern Ireland.
How they make money
$536M
annual revenue · their business grew -23.8% last year
distilled spirits
$302M
premium branded spirits
$115M
food ingredients
$71M
non-food applications
$48M
The products that matter
produces and sells whiskey
Distilled spirits and branded products
$536M revenue
this business generated the full $536M shown in this snapshot. segment detail is thin here, which means your bet is on the whole operation — supply, brands, and execution together.
entire business
Key numbers
$536M
TTM revenue
That is the size of the whole business. A 23.8% drop on this base is about $127M of sales gone.
8.8x
trailing P/E
You pay $8.80 for every $1 of trailing earnings. That only works if earnings stop falling.
17.6%
operating margin
The core business is losing money at the operating line. That is why the stock needs a turnaround, not a story.
2.2%
dividend yield
You get a 2.2% payout while waiting. That is smaller than the 23.8% revenue decline.
Financial health
B+
strength
- balance sheet grade B+ — solid but not elite
- risk rank 3 — safer than 50% of stocks
- price stability 45 / 100
- long-term debt $262M (33% of capital)
- net profit margin 10.4% — keeps 10 cents of every dollar in revenue
- return on equity 8% — $0.08 profit for every $1 investors have put in
B+ — functional but not a standout on the balance sheet.
Total return vs. market
You invested $10,000 in MGPI 3 years ago → it's now worth $2,290.
The index would have given you $13,920.
source: institutional data · total return
What just happened
beat estimates
$0.63 beat the $0.57 estimate, but revenue still fell 23.5% to $138.3M.
Gross margin was 38.0%. Annual revenue was $536M, down 23.8% Vs. last year, so the business is still shrinking even when quarterly EPS beats.
$138.3M
revenue
$0.63
eps
38.0%
gross margin
the number that mattered
$0.63 beat the $0.57 estimate. The bigger problem is that sales still slid and the base business is shrinking.
-
investors appear to be taking a cautious approach toward mgp ingredients shares.
-
the equity has traded in rangebound fashion over the past three months.the stance is not surprising, given the string of unfavorable quarterly sales and earnings performances delivered over the past two years.
-
the alcoholic beverage manufacturer likely closed 2025 with further top- and bottom-line declines.
-
one main challenge is soft demand for the company’s brown liquor offerings.
-
other segments such as the distilling solutions division have encountered headwinds as well.fickle consumer demand, evidenced by constrained spending, and competition from larger industry rivals, continues to prevent mgp ingredients from gaining market share in this category. we are cautiously optimistic that sales and share earnings will recover in 2026, and over the longer term.
source: company earnings report, 2026
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What could go wrong
the top risk is governance overhang from fiduciary-duty investigations, and it is showing up alongside weak spirits demand rather than instead of it.
med
board investigation
a law firm is investigating whether MGP Ingredients' board made false statements or breached fiduciary duties.
That matters because governance headlines rarely help a $525M company trading near the bottom of a $22–$40 range.
med
leadership investigation
a litigation firm is investigating whether company leadership breached fiduciary duties to the business.
When leadership credibility gets questioned, the market usually stops giving the benefit of the doubt to an 8.8x multiple.
med
soft brown-liquor demand
one main challenge remains weak demand for the company's brown liquor offerings.
A demand slowdown hits both growth and margins, which matters more when net profit margin is only 10.4%.
med
pressure in distilling solutions
other segments, including distilling solutions, have also faced pressure while larger rivals and constrained consumer spending make share gains harder.
This is why the market is not paying up for the FY2026 revenue estimate of $575M until the trend actually shows up in results.
Put together, these risks sit on a business expected to do $575M in FY2026 revenue, carrying $262M in long-term debt and only a 10.4% net margin. There is not much room for another bad surprise.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
metric
whether revenue reaches $575M
The FY2026 revenue estimate is $575M versus $536M last year. That extra $39M is the first test of whether the slowdown is cyclical or something worse.
risk
governance investigation updates
Two fiduciary-duty investigations are already part of the story. Resolution helps. Escalation keeps the discount in place.
calendar
the next quarterly EPS print
Last quarter came in at $0.71, down 34% from last year. You want to see that decline stop before trusting the low multiple.
trend
institutional flow
There were 79 buyers versus 108 sellers in 3Q2025. Same stock. Same quarter. That gap tells you big money is still cautious.
Analyst rankings
short-term outlook
top 20%
momentum score 2 — analysts expect above-average price performance in the year ahead. in human-speak, they think the stock can bounce even if the business still has work to do.
risk profile
average
stability score 3 — about average risk. not a bunker stock, not a chaos stock.
chart momentum
average
technical score 3 — the chart is not giving you a strong signal either way.
earnings predictability
70 / 100
earnings are somewhat predictable, but a 70/100 score is not the same as stability you can nap through.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
institutions have been net selling for 2 consecutive quarters — 79 buyers vs. 108 sellers in 3q2025. total institutional holdings: 13.0M shares. net selling for 2 quarters.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
$16
$38
$24
current price
$27
target midpoint · +12% from current · 3-5yr high: $55 (+130% · 24% ann'l return)
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