Start here if you're new
what it is
MGM runs casinos, hotels, shows, and online betting, then tries to sell you all four on one trip.
how it gets paid
Last year Mgm Resorts made $17.5B in revenue. Casinos was the main engine at $8.9B, or 51% of sales.
why it's growing
Revenue grew 1.7% last year. The beat came with fourth-quarter 2025 consolidated net revenue of $4.6 billion.
what just happened
MGM's last reported quarter beat estimates with $0.57 EPS versus $0.53 expected, a 7.55% surprise.
At a glance
B+ balance sheet — decent shape, but not bulletproof
10/100 earnings predictability — expect surprises
15.5x trailing p/e — the market's not buying it — or you found a deal
10.0% return on capital — nothing to write home about
xvary composite: 62/100 — average
What they do
MGM runs casinos, hotels, shows, and online betting, then tries to sell you all four on one trip.
MGM wins because its resorts sell you more than a bed. Casinos were 51% of 2024 revenue, rooms were 21%, and everything else was 28%, so one guest can spend three different ways. If you stay on a flagship Strip property, the casino, restaurants, and shows are all in the same building, which keeps more of your wallet in-house.
How they make money
$17.5B
annual revenue · their business grew +1.7% last year
Casinos
$8.9B
Rooms
$3.7B
Other
$4.9B
The products that matter
strip resort operations
Las Vegas Resorts
51% of 2024 revenue
this is still the center of gravity. When one market drives 51% of revenue, your thesis starts with Las Vegas demand and works outward from there.
51% of revenue
casino gaming revenue
Casinos
$8.9B · 42% of sales
casino revenue is the largest line item at $8.9B, or about 42% of total sales. If the gaming floor slows, the whole model feels it fast.
largest segment
macau gaming exposure
Macau Operations
$4.0B · 18.7% of sales
Macau contributes $4.0B, or 18.7% of revenue. It gives you international upside, but it also imports regulatory and travel-policy risk into the story.
cross-border lever
Key numbers
$6.2B
long-term debt
Debt equals 39% of capital. Plain English: a big part of the business is already spoken for before shareholders get paid.
5.7%
operating margin
Operating margin means profit after running the business but before interest and taxes. Plain English: MGM keeps 5.7 cents from each sales dollar before financing costs, so the cushion is thin.
15.5x
trailing p/e
P/E means price divided by profit. Plain English: you are paying 15.5 years of recent earnings for a company with mixed trends and raised risk.
10.0%
return on capital
Return on capital means profit versus the money tied up in the business. Plain English: MGM earns about 10 cents for every dollar invested in the operation.
Financial health
B+
strength
- balance sheet grade B+ — solid but not elite
- risk rank 3 — safer than 50% of stocks
- price stability 35 / 100
- long-term debt $6.2B (39% of capital)
- net profit margin 4.4% — keeps 4 cents of every dollar in revenue
- return on equity 22% — $0.22 profit for every $1 investors have put in
B+ — functional but not a standout on the balance sheet.
Total return vs. market
You invested $10,000 in MGM 3 years ago → it's now worth $8,940.
The index would have given you $14,770.
source: institutional data · total return
What just happened
beat estimates
MGM's last reported quarter beat estimates with $0.57 EPS versus $0.53 expected, a 7.55% surprise.
The beat came with fourth-quarter 2025 consolidated net revenue of $4.6 billion, up 6% vs. prior year, according to company reporting cited in February 2026 coverage. That matters because annual revenue growth was only 1.7%, so the latest quarter looked better than the full-year pace.
$4.6B
revenue
$0.57
eps
7.55%
surprise
the number that mattered
The key number was the 7.55% EPS beat, because MGM needed proof it can still out-earn expectations while the core outlook stays mixed.
-
the business outlook for mgm resorts international is mixed.
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mgm china has been performing well, thanks to favorable gaming trends in macau.
-
recent gross gaming revenues there have been positive.the mgm digital business is also growing at a robust clip due to organic growth initiatives and brand expansion. however, the company is seeing weaker demand trends at its core las vegas resorts division, which represents nearly half of total revenues.
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the group is reporting declines in all key metrics: casino, rooms, food and beverage, and entertainment.
-
the regional operations segment has been posting flattish results in recent quarters.all told, we think both revenues and share earnings in the fourth quarter increased modestly compared to the previous-year tallies.
source: company earnings report, 2026
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What could go wrong
the #1 risk is Las Vegas demand softening while Macau is not big enough to offset it.
med
Las Vegas slowdown
Las Vegas Resorts generated 51% of 2024 revenue, and management already flagged declines across casino, rooms, food and beverage, and entertainment. That is not a side issue. It is the core business wobbling.
If the Strip weakens further, the company's biggest earnings engine slows at the same time its fixed-cost base stays heavy.
med
Macau policy and travel exposure
Macau contributes $4.0B of revenue, or 18.7% of sales. That gives you upside when gaming trends are favorable and a direct hit if regulation, visas, or travel demand turn the other way.
This is meaningful enough to move the story, but not large enough to rescue it if Las Vegas is also under pressure.
med
thin net margin
A 16.5% operating margin narrows to just 3.6% net margin after interest, taxes, and everything else. In plain English: there is not much cushion once the bills come due.
Even modest revenue softness can pressure earnings disproportionately when you only keep 4 cents of each revenue dollar.
med
earnings volatility and estimate risk
The latest quarter posted -$1.05 EPS, while full-year 2026 EPS is still estimated at $2.35 and earnings predictability is only 10/100. Analysts are assuming a rebound. The recent quarter says that rebound is not automatic.
If the next few quarters keep looking more like the last one than the estimate sheet, the 15.5x multiple is not a bargain. It is a trap.
Between 51% revenue concentration in Las Vegas, 18.7% exposure to Macau, and a 3.6% net margin, MGM has multiple ways to get clipped before the shareholder sees much protection.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
earnings
next quarterly print
You need to see whether the last quarter's -$1.05 EPS was an outlier or the start of a weaker earnings run.
trend
Las Vegas demand
Las Vegas Resorts drive 51% of revenue. Any continued softness across casino, rooms, food and beverage, and entertainment matters immediately.
risk
Macau gaming momentum
Macau is 18.7% of sales. Positive gross gaming revenue trends help, but you want to know whether that support is strengthening or fading.
metric
margin conversion
Watch whether the 16.5% operating margin can turn into something better than a 3.6% net margin. That gap tells you how much friction sits below the top line.
Analyst rankings
short-term outlook
top 20%
momentum score 2 — in human-speak, analysts think MGM can outperform most stocks over the next year.
risk profile
average
stability score 3 — this sits in the middle of the pack. Not especially safe. Not a disaster either.
chart momentum
average
technical score 3 — the chart is not sending some magical signal here. It is mostly moving with the market.
earnings predictability
10 / 100
earnings predictability this low means surprises are part of the package. The latest quarter proved the point.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
institutions have been net selling for 3 consecutive quarters — 246 buyers vs. 314 sellers in 3q2025. total institutional holdings: 0.2B shares. net selling for 3 quarters.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
$24
$57
$35
current price
$41
target midpoint · +18% from current · 3-5yr high: $60 (+70% · 14% ann'l return)
Want the deeper analysis?
The full deep dive: dcf model, scenario analysis, competitive moat breakdown, and quarterly tracking — everything on this page, taken further.
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