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what it is
Methanex makes and sells methanol, then moves it around the world with 18 ships and regional storage.
how it gets paid
Last year Methanex made $3.6B in revenue. Produced methanol sales was the main engine at $2.70B, or 75% of sales.
why growth slowed
Revenue fell 3.5% last year. The number that mattered was the 228.57% earnings miss.
what just happened
Last quarter, Methanex posted -$1.15 EPS versus a $0.72 estimate, a 228.57% miss against consensus.
At a glance
B+ balance sheet — decent shape, but not bulletproof
10/100 earnings predictability — expect surprises
15.9x trailing p/e — the market's not buying it — or you found a deal
1.6% dividend yield — cash in your pocket every quarter
7.0% return on capital — nothing to write home about
xvary composite: 53/100 — below average
What they do
Methanex makes and sells methanol, then moves it around the world with 18 ships and regional storage.
This business wins because methanol is bulky, global, and annoying to move. Methanex owns or manages 18 ocean-going vessels plus storage and terminals, so your customer gets product when smaller rivals are still arguing with a port schedule. Scale-and-logistics moat → plain English: it can source, ship, and store product reliably → so what: when supply chains break, you remember who actually delivered.
How they make money
$3.6B
annual revenue · their business grew -3.5% last year
Produced methanol sales
$2.70B
3.5%
Purchased and resold methanol
$0.43B
3.5%
Ocean freight and delivery
$0.25B
up
Storage and terminals
$0.14B
up
Fuel and blending channels
$0.08B
flat
The products that matter
produces and sells methanol
Methanol
$3.6B · essentially the whole revenue base
this is the business. when one product drives effectively all $3.6B of revenue, pricing is not one variable among many. it is the variable.
core revenue driver
global sales and distribution
International customer network
4 regions · asia/pacific to south america
the footprint matters because demand is global, but this page does not break out revenue by region. that is a real information gap if you want to underwrite which markets are carrying the next move.
global footprint
shipping and supply execution
Time-chartered fleet
6 mar 2026 · highlighted on the q4 call
management pointed to its time-chartered fleet as protection against higher freight costs. it will not rescue weak methanol prices, but it can stop logistics from becoming the second hit to margins.
execution lever
Key numbers
$2.8B
long-term debt
That debt equals 43% of capital, which means the upside case needs good execution, not just better methanol prices.
20.0%
operating margin
Margin → plain English: profit left after running the business → so what: this is decent for a commodity name, but not enough to make debt irrelevant.
$59
18-month target
That is 24% above the current $47.70 price, so the market is being asked to believe OCI integration adds more than risk.
7.0%
return on capital
Return on capital → plain English: how hard each invested dollar works → so what: 7% is fine, not heroic, especially with leverage.
Financial health
B+
strength
- balance sheet grade B+ — solid but not elite
- risk rank 3 — safer than 50% of stocks
- price stability 35 / 100
- long-term debt $2.8B (43% of capital)
- net profit margin 8.7% — keeps 9 cents of every dollar in revenue
- return on equity 12% — $0.12 profit for every $1 investors have put in
B+ — functional but not a standout on the balance sheet.
Total return vs. market
You invested $10,000 in MEOH 3 years ago → it's now worth $9,870.
The index would have given you $13,880.
source: institutional data · total return
What just happened
missed estimates
Last quarter, Methanex posted -$1.15 EPS versus a $0.72 estimate, a 228.57% miss against consensus.
Quarterly numbers are messy because sources disagree. Consensus shows a sharp miss, while the yearly quarterly history lists Q4 2025 EPS at $0.72. Either way, revenue was reported at $968.8 million and the quarter did not look clean.
$968.8M
revenue
$1.15
eps
20.0%
operating margin
the number that mattered
The number that mattered was the 228.57% earnings miss, because highly levered commodity names do not get much forgiveness when a quarter breaks.
-
methanex corp. has been repositioning itself.
-
the company completed the acquisition of oci global’s methanol business in mid-2025.it now owns an interest in two world-scale methanol facilities in beaumont, texas, which offers access to north american natural gas feedstock; a low-carbon methanol production and marketing business; and a currently idled methanol facility in the netherlands. last september, the company announced strategic partnerships in two of the world’s refueling hubs, amsterdam-rottenbergantwerp and south korea, launching global methanol bunkering operations.
-
the ongoing integration of new assets has been going well.we think methanex will continue to build on acquisition and focus on maximizing the reliability and efficiencies of operations.
-
supplychain improvements have also been auguring well for profits.looking forward, management ought to invest heavily in its holdings, and may consider other tuck-in acquisitions to realign its portfolio.
-
the company likely posted mixed results in 2025.
source: company earnings report, 2026
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What could go wrong
the #1 risk is methanol price volatility. you are not diversifying across products here. essentially all $3.6B of revenue sits on one commodity, and the company carries $2.8B of long-term debt while you wait for the cycle to cooperate.
high
methanol price volatility
methanex generated $3.6B of revenue from methanol. when realized pricing moves, the whole income statement moves with it.
touches essentially all $3.6B of revenue
med
debt load in a cyclical business
$2.8B of long-term debt equals 43% of capital. that is manageable in a decent pricing backdrop and less comfortable if the cycle stays weak.
pressures flexibility, not just earnings
med
OCI deal execution risk
the page flags expansion through the OCI deal, but it does not show return targets or cost detail. when the math is thin, execution carries more weight.
affects how believable the $4B revenue story is
med
earnings whiplash
10/100 earnings predictability is the market telling you to expect estimate cuts and resets. this is not a smooth quarterly staircase.
raises the odds of multiple compression when sentiment turns
this is a $3.6B one-product business with $2.8B of long-term debt and 10/100 predictability. if methanol prices soften, revenue, margins, and sentiment all take the hit together.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
key metric
revenue needs to move from $3.6B toward the $4B estimate
that is the cleanest scoreboard on the page. if revenue stalls below that level, the forward earnings case starts to look generous.
balance sheet
$2.8B of debt is manageable until pricing weakens
43% of capital in long-term debt leaves you less room for mistakes than the B+ grade suggests at first glance.
event watch
OCI deal integration needs real economics next
the strategic rationale is clear enough. what you still need are numbers: returns, costs, and proof that the deal improves more than the headline.
ownership trend
institutional flow is almost perfectly split
90 buyers versus 92 sellers is not a stampede. large holders care, but the conviction level on this page is still low.
Analyst rankings
earnings predictability
10 / 100
in human-speak: analysts do not trust this earnings stream to stay smooth.
risk rank
3
middle-tier safety. not distressed, not defensive.
price stability
35 / 100
the stock does not trade like a bunker stock. it trades like a cyclical chemical name.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
90 buyers vs. 92 sellers in 3q2025. total institutional holdings: 45.7M shares.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
$35
$83
$48
current price
$59
target midpoint · +24% from current · 3-5yr high: $80 (+70% · 15% ann'l return)
Want the deeper analysis?
The full deep dive: dcf model, scenario analysis, competitive moat breakdown, and quarterly tracking — everything on this page, taken further.
see plans from $5/moThe deep dive