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what it is
MercadoLibre helps people in Latin America buy stuff, pay for it, and get it delivered.
how it gets paid
Last year Mercadolibre made $20.3B in revenue. Brazil was the main engine at $10.3B, or 50% of sales.
why it's growing
Revenue grew 34.3% last year. Revenue was reported at $14.2B, up 173% vs. prior year in the supplied filing data, while gross margin was 63.9%.
what just happened
MercadoLibre’s latest report worked because EPS came in at $11.03, ahead of the $10.00 estimate.
At a glance
B++ balance sheet — above average — nothing keeping you up at night
25/100 earnings predictability — expect surprises
51.9x trailing p/e — you're paying up for this one
32.0% return on capital — every dollar works hard here
xvary composite: 59/100 — below average
What they do
MercadoLibre helps people in Latin America buy stuff, pay for it, and get it delivered.
This is the rare company that owns the store, the wallet, and the truck. Brazil alone is just over 50% of sales, according to the company profile, and that scale matters because buyers go where sellers are, and sellers go where buyers already live. Network effects → more users attract more users → so what: leaving means rebuilding your customer traffic, payments, and delivery from scratch.
How they make money
$20.3B
annual revenue · their business grew +34.3% last year
Brazil
$10.3B
Mexico
$5.0B
Argentina
$3.0B
Other Latin America
$2.0B
The products that matter
core shopping engine
MercadoLibre Marketplace
Brazil is just over 50% of sales
This is the traffic magnet. When one market alone drives more than half of sales, scale becomes your moat.
>50% of sales in Brazil
payments flywheel
Mercado Pago
$20.3B annual revenue, +34.3%
Payments turns a shopping site into a habit. Revenue grew 34.3%, which tells you users are doing more than browsing.
+34.3% revenue growth
delivery backbone
Mercado Envios
84,200 employees
Fast delivery is expensive and operationally messy. A workforce this large shows MercadoLibre is building its own muscle instead of renting someone else’s.
84.2K employees
Key numbers
51.9x
trailing p/e
P/E ratio → how many years of current earnings you are paying for → so what: the stock is priced for years of strong execution.
32.0%
return on capital
Return on capital → profit earned on money put into the business → so what: MercadoLibre turns investment into earnings better than most retailers and fintechs.
16.0%
operating margin
Operating margin → profit left after running the business → so what: this is the line that tells you whether growth is creating value or just burning cash.
$3.4B
long-term debt
Debt is only 3% of capital, which means the balance sheet is carrying far less weight than the $105B equity story.
Financial health
B++
strength
- balance sheet grade B++ — above average financial health
- risk rank 3 — safer than 50% of stocks
- price stability 20 / 100
- long-term debt $3.4B (3% of capital)
- net profit margin 9.5% — keeps 10 cents of every dollar in revenue
- return on equity 39% — $0.39 profit for every $1 investors have put in
B++ — functional but not a standout on the balance sheet.
Total return vs. market
You invested $10,000 in MELI 3 years ago → it's now worth $19,160.
The index would have given you $14,770.
source: institutional data · total return
What just happened
beat estimates
MercadoLibre’s latest report worked because EPS came in at $11.03, ahead of the $10.00 estimate.
Revenue was reported at $14.2B, up 173% vs. prior year in the supplied filing data, while gross margin was 63.9%. The only real debate now is not growth. It is whether margin pressure sticks.
$5.6B
revenue
$11.03
eps
63.9%
gross margin
the number that mattered
The key number was the $1.03 EPS beat, because a stock at 51.9x earnings needs proof that profit growth is still outrunning expectations.
-
mercadolibre should perform well this year.
-
for the full year 2026, we look for the international e-commerce company to deliver revenues of $36.0 billion, suggesting a better-than-25% advance.the company should continue to gain marketshare in latin america, as both a leading retailer and as a financial services provider.
-
for some perspective, brazil is mercadolibre’s largest market (accounts for just over 50% of sales).
-
mexico and argentina make up the remainder of the business.
-
we look for profits to reach $54.00 per share in 2026, which also suggests a healthy improvement.
source: company earnings report, 2026
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What could go wrong
MercadoLibre’s biggest threat is not demand. It is how much investors will pay for that demand.
high
Margin squeeze
The quiet part: growth is still fast, but profitability is wobbling. A web-cited Q4 operating margin fell to 10.1% from 13.5% a year earlier, versus a 16.0% full-year operating margin in the base data.
A 5.9-point margin hit on $20.3B of annual revenue is about $1.2B less operating profit.
high
Multiple compression
The stock already trades at 51.9x trailing earnings. If investors decide fast growth deserves a lower multiple, the share price can fall even if the business keeps growing.
A move from $2,075 to the 18-month low range of $1,648 implies about 21% downside, or roughly $21.6B in market value.
med
LatAm market shocks
You are buying a volatile stock in volatile markets. Beta is 1.55, price stability is 20 out of 100, and Trefis says the average drawdown across 15 market shocks was 25%.
A 25% drawdown from a $105B market cap would erase about $26.3B.
If margin holds near 16.0%, the story works. If growth stays high but margin slips toward 10%, your stock can still get hit hard.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Analyst rankings
short-term outlook
average
outlook rank 3 — the stock is moving with the broader market, no unusual signal.
risk profile
average
risk rank 3 — typical risk profile — neither especially safe nor risky.
chart momentum
average
momentum rank 3 — the stock is moving with the broader market, no unusual signal.
earnings predictability
25 / 100
earnings can be harder to predict — expect surprises.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
institutions have been net buying for 3 consecutive quarters — 723 buyers vs. 589 sellers in 3q2025. total institutional holdings: 39.8M shares. net buying for 3 quarters.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
$1648
$3498
$2075
current price
$3520
target midpoint · +70% from current · 3-5yr high: $4220 (+105% · 19% ann'l return)
Want the deeper analysis?
The full deep dive: dcf model, scenario analysis, competitive moat breakdown, and quarterly tracking — everything on this page, taken further.
see plans from $5/moThe deep dive
MELI
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long
composite 59/100
$3520
+70% upside from current price
51.9x
trailing p/e
32.0%
return on capital
16.0%
operating margin
what the street is missing
Wall Street keeps staring at the multiple and missing the machine. Sales grew 34.3% to $20.3B while operating margin held at 16.0%, which is rare for a company still projected by to grow sales 26.5%.
intrinsic value
's 18-month target is $3,520, versus a current price of $2,075.01. That setup exists because you are buying a business with 32.0% return on capital and 39% return on equity, not just a story stock with a map of Latin America.
This thesis breaks if growth drops below Value Line's 26.5% sales forecast and margins fail to stay near 16.0%. It also breaks if Brazil, which is just over 50% of sales, turns from growth engine into anchor.
what's in the full report
Brazil drives over half of sales
51.9x earnings needs near-perfect execution
32% capital returns are absurdly strong
Revenue grew 34.3% at scale
Operating margin says growth is real
Stock volatility is the admission price
sees $3,520 in 18 months
Lowered momentum rating is the warning
read the full report
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