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what it is
Medifast sells weight-loss meals and health coaching through its OPTAVIA network, which had about 19,500 active earning coaches.
how it gets paid
Last year Medifast made $386M in revenue.
why growth slowed
Revenue fell 36.0% last year. EDGAR shows annual revenue fell 36.0% to $386 million.
what just happened
Latest reported EPS was -$1.65 versus a -$0.30 estimate, a brutal miss against a business already in retreat.
At a glance
B balance sheet — gets the job done, barely
25/100 earnings predictability — expect surprises
1.0% return on capital — nothing to write home about
$0.19 fy2024 eps est
$603M fy2024 rev est
xvary composite: 39/100 — weak
What they do
Medifast sells weight-loss meals and health coaching through its OPTAVIA network, which had about 19,500 active earning coaches.
The moat is the coach network. Medifast says it has about 19,500 active earning coaches, and about 90% were clients first. That matters because distribution → the way products reach customers → so what: your sales force is also the testimonial.
How they make money
$386M
annual revenue · revenue declined -36.0% last year
total revenue
$386M
36.0%
The products that matter
coach-guided weight loss program
OPTAVIA
core brand · backs a $386M business
it is the main revenue engine behind the company's $386M annual sales base, using independent coaches to sell packaged nutrition plans and accountability.
core brand
packaged meals and supplements
Medifast Meals
71.8% gross margin
these products still carry a 71.8% gross margin, which means the economics per unit are strong even while overall demand shrinks.
margin still high
Key numbers
$0.19
2024 EPS
2024 EPS was $0.19 versus $9.10 in 2023. Earnings per share → profit per share → so what: profit almost vanished.
19,500
active coaches
The business runs through about 19,500 active earning coaches. Distribution network → how you reach customers → so what: if coaches fade, sales usually follow.
2.6%
operating margin
Operating margin was 2.6%. Operating margin → profit after running the business → so what: there is almost no room for mistakes.
$386M
annual revenue
EDGAR shows revenue fell to $386 million, down 36.0% vs. prior year. Sales decline → fewer dollars coming in → so what: the turnaround starts from a much smaller base.
Financial health
B
strength
- balance sheet grade B — adequate — nothing special
- risk rank 4 — safer than 20% of stocks
- price stability 25 / 100
- long-term debt $7M (6% of capital)
B — functional but not a standout on the balance sheet.
Total return vs. market
Return history isn't available for MED right now.
source: institutional data · return history unavailable
What just happened
missed estimates
Latest reported EPS was -$1.65 versus a -$0.30 estimate, a brutal miss against a business already in retreat.
EDGAR shows annual revenue fell 36.0% to $386 million, while quarterly history shows 2024 full-year EPS at $0.19 after $9.10 in 2023. The company still posted a 71.8% gross margin, which means the problem is not product markup. It is volume and operating leverage.
$311M
revenue
$1.65
eps
71.8%
gross margin
the number that mattered
The real number is $0.19. That was full-year 2024 EPS, down from $9.10 in 2023, which tells you the business model lost its cushion.
source: company earnings report, 2026
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What could go wrong
the #1 risk is GLP-1 drugs making coach-led meal plans less relevant.
high
GLP-1 competition
drugs like Ozempic and related metabolic treatments are attacking the same customer problem from a different angle. medifast already posted a 37% quarterly revenue drop while trying to respond.
this pressure sits on the same $386M revenue base that management now expects to fall to $270M–$300M.
high
coach network erosion
the model depends on independent coaches for customer acquisition and retention. if those coaches leave or become less productive, the distribution engine weakens before management can rebuild it.
with revenue concentrated in one main program, there is no second segment to absorb the hit.
med
auditor control issue
an auditor flagged a risk of not detecting a material misstatement in june 2024. that is not the core equity story, but it is the kind of thing you do not want around a stressed turnaround.
it raises the trust hurdle just as investors need clean numbers most.
med
ceo transition during the pivot
dan chard steps down in june 2026 while the company is trying to reposition around metabolic health. leadership turnover can reset strategy, but it can also slow decisions.
execution risk is higher because the business is already guiding to a loss.
three of these four risks hit the same shrinking revenue base, and management already expects that base to land at just $270M–$300M this year.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
metric
2026 revenue landing zone
$270M–$300M is management's full-year guide. if actual results start tracking below the midpoint early, the reset thesis gets thinner fast.
calendar
june 2026 ceo handoff
leadership changes are always worth watching. here, it matters more because it lands in the middle of a business-model rewrite.
risk
GLP-1 response
management is pivoting toward metabolic health. what you need to see is evidence that the new pitch slows the customer bleed, not just new language on slides.
trend
quarterly revenue decline rate
q4 was down 37% from last year. if that rate narrows meaningfully, the stock gets a survival case. if it does not, this remains a shrinking niche business.
Analyst rankings
earnings predictability
25 / 100
earnings predictability is low. in human-speak, analysts do not have a clean handle on what the next few quarters should look like.
risk rank
4
risk rank 4 means this is on the riskier end of the spectrum. you are not buying stability here — you are buying a possible reset.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
institutional ownership data for MED is being compiled.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
n/a
n/a
$11
current price
n/a
target midpoint · n/a from current
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