XVARY Composite Score
41
/ 100
Below Average
Combines growth, value, risk, and momentum factors into a single institutional-grade score.
Start here if you're new
What it is
MEC makes and finishes metal parts for trucks, construction gear, powersports, agriculture, and military customers.
How it gets paid
Last year Mayville Engineering made $546M in revenue. Production fabrication was the main engine at $197M, or 36% of sales.
Why growth slowed
Revenue fell 6.0% last year. The vs. prior year comparison is messy because Q4 2024 net income included a large one-time litigation gain.
What just happened
Net sales were $134.3M in Q4 2025, up about 10.7% vs. prior year, but GAAP EPS was.
At a Glance
C++ balance sheet — some cracks in the foundation
25/100 earnings predictability — expect surprises
34.1x trailing p/e — you're paying up for this one
9.5% return on capital — nothing to write home about
$1.24 fy2024 eps est
XVARY composite: 41/100 — below average
What They Do
MEC makes and finishes metal parts for trucks, construction gear, powersports, agriculture, and military customers.
You are buying 20 plants across 8 states, not a single shop. Instant translation: value-added manufacturing partner → a company that designs, fabricates, coats, and assembles parts for other firms → so what: leaving means moving real production, not just a purchase order. That is why 2,200 employees matter more than they sound.
How They Make Money
$546M
annual revenue · their business grew -6.0% last year
Production fabrication
$197M
Coating and assembly
$164M
Prototyping and tooling
$98M
Aftermarket services
$48M
Other end-market work
$39M
The Products That Matter
Forms and fabricates metal parts
Metal fabrication
$546M company revenue base
it's part of the full $546M revenue base, which shrank 6.0% last year. When volumes soften, fixed manufacturing costs stop hiding in the background.
core revenue base
Machines tight-tolerance components
Precision machining
$2.9M launch cost hit
last quarter's $2.9M of project launch inefficiencies is the loudest number on the page. This is not a story stock. Execution is the product you are really buying.
execution-sensitive
Moves new work into production
Program launches
6.6% margin vs 8.9%
on $134.3M in quarterly sales, launch issues were enough to drag manufacturing margin to 6.6% from 8.9%. That's the debate in one line: were those launch costs temporary, or are they how this business behaves under stress?
watch closely
Key Numbers
$546M
trailing revenue
Sales are the whole story here. ~$546M in fiscal 2025 net sales with a roughly break-even to slightly negative operating margin means demand exists, but GAAP profitability is still inconsistent.
-0.7%
op margin
Trailing operating margin is slightly negative — the company is around break-even at the operating line before interest and taxes.
$243M
long-term debt
Debt is 42% of capital. That leaves less room when margins are thin.
9.5%
return on capital
Every $100 tied up in the business produced $9.50 in operating profit. That is decent, not dazzling.
Financial Health
C++
Strength
- balance sheet grade C++ — below average — limited financial resources
- risk rank 3 — safer than 50% of stocks
- price stability 20 / 100
- long-term debt $243M (42% of capital)
C++ — balance sheet grade and long-term debt are flagged. this stock carries more risk than average.
Total Return vs. Market
source: institutional data · return history unavailable
What Just Happened
missed estimates
Net sales were $134.3M in Q4 2025, up about 10.7% vs. prior year, but GAAP EPS was ($0.22).
The vs. prior year comparison is messy because Q4 2024 net income included a large one-time litigation gain; adjusted figures look weaker than that GAAP comp even though sales grew.
$134.3M
quarter revenue
-$0.22
gaap eps
10.7%
vs. prior year net sales
the number that mattered
The $134.3M quarter matters because it shows real vs. prior year growth; the ($0.22) GAAP EPS still says the factory is not converting that demand into clean GAAP profit yet.
source: company earnings report, 2026
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What Could Go Wrong
The main risk is specific and already visible: project launches are messy enough to overwhelm growth. MEC just showed you that $2.9M of inefficiencies can turn 10.7% sales growth into a $4.4M loss.
High
Project launch execution
$2.9M in project launch inefficiencies cut manufacturing margin to 6.6% from 8.9% last quarter. For a business running near break-even at the operating line, that is not noise.
impact: it directly fed into a $4.4M net loss.
Med
Debt in a thin-margin business
long-term debt is $243M, equal to 42% of capital, and the balance sheet is rated C++. If execution stays uneven while demand softens, financial flexibility shrinks quickly.
impact: another weak quarter would hit harder because the balance sheet already has work to do.
Med
Multiple compression
the stock trades at 34.1x trailing earnings despite 25/100 earnings predictability and a recent quarterly loss. That is a premium setup for a company still trying to prove the last quarter was temporary.
impact: if margin recovery slips, the multiple can fall even if sales stabilize.
$243M of debt, 25/100 predictability, and a quarter that lost $4.4M do not leave much room for repeated launch mistakes.
Source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay Attention To
Metric
Manufacturing margin
6.6% was the problem. If this does not move back toward 8.9%, the market's "one bad quarter" explanation gets weaker fast.
Risk
Project launch inefficiencies
$2.9M was enough to change the quarter's outcome. You want that number moving down, not reappearing under a new label.
Calendar
Next earnings report
management needs to show whether the loss quarter was a one-off operating mess or the start of a pattern. For this stock, one quarter is not proof.
Trend
Sales recovery to $582M
the revenue estimate implies a 6.6% rebound from $546M. More volume helps, but only if margins recover with it.
Analyst Rankings
earnings predictability
25 / 100
in human-speak, analysts do not trust this earnings stream to behave nicely.
risk rank
3
about average on overall safety. not distressed, not especially comfortable either.
price stability
20 / 100
the stock has been jumpy. that's normal when a $339M company is dealing with operational misses.
Source: institutional data
Institutional Activity
institutional ownership data for MEC is being compiled.
Source: institutional data
Price Targets
3-5 year target range
$20
Current price
Target midpoint · from current
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