Start here if you're new
what it is
MDU sells electricity, natural gas, and pipeline service after dumping its construction businesses.
how it gets paid
Last year Mdu Resources made $1.9B in revenue. natural gas distribution was the main engine at $1.05B, or 55% of sales.
why it's growing
Revenue grew 6.3% last year. Specifically, the current five-year plan calls for $3.4 billion in investments across regulated electric, natural gas distribution, and pipeline businesses between 2026 and 2030.
what just happened
Quarterly EPS landed at $0.37, about 5.1% below the $0.39 estimate.
At a glance
B++ balance sheet — above average — nothing keeping you up at night
60/100 earnings predictability — reasonably predictable
21.2x trailing p/e — priced about right
3.4% dividend yield — cash in your pocket every quarter
6.5% return on capital — nothing to write home about
xvary composite: 59/100 — below average
What they do
MDU sells electricity, natural gas, and pipeline service after dumping its construction businesses.
Utilities win by being boring and hard to replace. MDU serves 1,064,593 natural gas customers and 145,686 electric customers, and your town does not rip up pipes and wires for fun. Rate increases are regulatory jargon → state-approved price hikes → so what: small approved hikes can lift earnings without needing a wave of new customers.
How they make money
$1.9B
annual revenue · their business grew +6.3% last year
natural gas distribution
$1.05B
+5.0%
electric utility
$0.46B
+8.0%
pipeline transportation
$0.27B
0.0%
other utility services
$0.12B
+6.0%
The products that matter
regulated natural gas delivery
Natural Gas Distribution
~55% of revenue
this is the largest line on the revenue table at roughly $1.05B of the ~$1.9B base. regulated gas is the core cash engine after the construction exit.
core
regulated electricity delivery
Electric Utility
~24% of revenue
electric is roughly $0.46B, or about a quarter of sales. it is meaningful, but not the biggest regulated line on this page.
second leg
pipeline transportation
Pipeline
~14% of revenue
pipeline is roughly $0.27B — smaller than gas or electric, but it sits next to the multi-year capex story. mix on the income statement should match the revenue breakdown above.
capex lever
Key numbers
35%
debt load
Long-term debt → money owed for years → so what: debt equals 35% of capital, which is workable for a utility until project costs or rate approvals slip.
21.2x
trailing p/e
P/E → stock price divided by earnings → so what: you are paying 21.2 years of current earnings for a business with 6.5% return on capital.
15.6%
operating margin (FY)
Operating margin → profit after running the business, before interest and taxes → so what: MDU keeps $15.60 from every $100 of sales before financing costs.
3.4%
dividend yield
Dividend yield → annual cash payout divided by stock price → so what: you get paid 3.4% to wait while the regulated growth plan proves itself.
Financial health
B++
strength
- balance sheet grade B++ — above average financial health
- risk rank 3 — safer than 50% of stocks
- price stability 80 / 100
- long-term debt $2.2B (35% of capital)
- net profit margin 12.6% — keeps about 12.6 cents of every dollar in revenue
- return on equity 9% — $0.09 profit for every $1 investors have put in
B++ — functional but not a standout on the balance sheet.
Total return vs. market
You invested $10,000 in MDU 3 years ago → it's now worth $19,180.
The index would have given you $13,880.
source: institutional data · total return
What just happened
missed estimates
Quarterly EPS landed at $0.37, about 5.1% below the $0.39 estimate.
Q4 2025 revenue was about $534 million, roughly flat vs. prior year based on company materials. Full-year 2025 EPS reached $0.93, as MDU completed its first full year as a pure regulated energy business.
$534M
revenue (q)
$0.37
eps (q)
$0.93-$1.00
2026 guide
the number that mattered
The $0.02 EPS miss matters because utilities trade on consistency, and this stock already sits at 21.2x trailing earnings.
-
recent initiatives will likely have a meaningful impact on mdu resources for some time.in late december 2025, the company completed a follow-on public offering of 10.15 million shares at a price of $19.70 per share, succeeded by the underwriters’ decision to exercise an option to purchase an additional 1.522 million shares. the 11.68 million-share offering helps the company to meet its previously stated capital injection requirements for 2026 and 2027.
-
separately, the closure of 49% ownership interest purchase (for $792 million) in the badger wind farm brings mdu resources’ ambitious expansion objectives into focus.specifically, the current five-year plan calls for $3.4 billion in investments across regulated electric, natural gas distribution, and pipeline businesses between 2026 and 2030.
-
the recent year was the first for the company as a regulated energy business.for the full 52-week period, mdu resources reported about $0.93 per share on this page’s FY2025 summary, while showing progress on the regulatory arena (see below). looking into 2026, the dilutive effect of the secondary offering is liable to weigh on the bottom-line growth in the short term, but all segments are probably going to experience pockets of expansion.
-
moreover, management is looking for growth projects and probable rate increases to help maintain annual earnings-per-share growth of 6%–8%.
-
the ensuing free cash flow generation should enable the company to target a payout ratio of 60%-70%.
source: company earnings report, 2026
Get this snapshot in your inbox
This page, delivered free — plus weekly updates when the numbers change. plain english, no spam.
weekly updates
earnings alerts
plain english
no spam
What could go wrong
MDU just became easier to understand. That does not make it easier to execute. The core risk is simple: a $3.1B capital plan has to earn more than a utility-like shrug.
med
$3.1B has to turn into earnings, not just assets
the company plans to invest $3.1B from 2025 through 2029. Against a roughly $4B market cap, that is not a side project. If those dollars earn average returns, the stock stays average too.
The buildout is roughly three-quarters of the company's market value. You are underwriting execution, not just utility stability.
med
growth is already leaning on new equity
MDU sold 10.15 million shares at $19.70 in 2025-12. That helps fund projects, but it also means per-share growth has another hurdle before you feel it.
A utility can expand the asset base and still leave shareholders standing still if the share count grows too.
med
near-term earnings are thin
the latest quarter produced $0.09 in EPS, down 72% from last year. That is a small buffer for a company asking you to trust a multi-year earnings ramp.
If quarterly results stay this soft, the $1.00 FY2026 and $1.10 FY2027 path starts to look more like aspiration than base case.
med
the dividend and the buildout want the same dollars
management is targeting a 60%–70% payout ratio while also funding a multi-year investment cycle. That balance works when projects stay on time and regulators cooperate.
The 3.4% yield supports the stock. It also leaves less internal cash to absorb surprises.
What would change our mind for the worse: more funding needs, more dilution, and quarterly EPS that keeps looking closer to $0.09 than to the $1.00 and $1.10 path management is asking you to underwrite.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
earnings
next earnings on 2026-05-14
watch whether quarterly EPS moves meaningfully above $0.09. For this stock, stabilization matters almost as much as growth.
metric
returns versus the current 5.5% return on capital
if the investment cycle is working, return on capital should improve from 5.5%. If it does not, the whole spending case starts to look expensive rather than productive.
trend
rate base growth and project follow-through
the pure-play utility thesis needs visible progress on projects and approved rate increases, not just a cleaner corporate structure.
risk
additional funding moves
after the 10.15 million share offering, watch for signs that more outside capital is needed to finish the plan.
Analyst rankings
short-term outlook
average
momentum score 3 — in human-speak, analysts do not see a near-term edge here.
risk profile
average
stability score 3 — this is not a bunker stock, but it is not a drama factory either.
chart momentum
top 20%
technical score 2 — the chart looks better than the $17 target midpoint does. Welcome to utility optimism.
earnings predictability
60 / 100
good enough for a utility, but recent results say you should still expect some noise.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
institutions have been net buying for 3 consecutive quarters — 181 buyers vs. 175 sellers in 3q2025. total institutional holdings: 0.2B shares. net buying for 3 quarters.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
$7
$27
$20
current price
$17
target midpoint · 16% from current · 3-5yr high: $25 (+25% · 9% ann'l return)
Want the deeper analysis?
The full deep dive: dcf model, scenario analysis, competitive moat breakdown, and quarterly tracking — everything on this page, taken further.
see plans from $5/moThe deep dive