Start here if you're new
what it is
Madrigal sells Rezdiffra, a liver drug for MASH, a disease that can end in transplant or death.
how it gets paid
Last year Madrigal Pharma made $958M in revenue.
why it's growing
Revenue grew 432.1% last year. Revenue was up 122% from last year. The business is selling harder.
what just happened
Revenue hit $637M, while EPS landed at -$10.32.
At a glance
B+ balance sheet — decent shape, but not bulletproof
55/100 earnings predictability — expect surprises
-$21.90 fy2024 eps est
$180M fy2024 rev est
31.3% operating margin
xvary composite: 51/100 — below average
What they do
Madrigal sells Rezdiffra, a liver drug for MASH, a disease that can end in transplant or death.
Rezdiffra was the first FDA-approved MASH drug in 2024. That puts Madrigal ahead of rivals still waiting for a first label. You are buying 528 employees and one drug that already reached $958M in annual revenue.
How they make money
$958M
annual revenue · their business grew +432.1% last year
total revenue
$958M
+432.1%
The products that matter
approved MASH therapy
Rezdiffra
$958M · 100% of revenue
it's the entire revenue base on this page. when you buy MDGL today, this is the business you are buying.
the whole story
commercial adoption engine
launch execution
$180M est → $958M actual
the gap between the old $180M estimate and the current $958M result is the number that mattered. adoption ran far ahead of the original script.
the surprise
future diversification
pipeline and follow-ons
no separate revenue shown
this page does not show a second validated revenue stream. that's the point. if a new leg exists, it is not carrying the numbers yet.
still thin
Key numbers
5/100
price stability
A 5 out of 100 means the stock has little cushion when MASH headlines hit.
$958M
ttm revenue
That is real scale for a one-product biotech, not just science fair money.
31.3%
operating margin
For every $100 in sales, $31 disappears before taxes and interest.
0.75
market wobble
A 0.75 beta means the shares usually swing less than the market, but drug news still runs the stock.
Financial health
B+
strength
- balance sheet grade B+ — solid but not elite
- risk rank 3 — safer than 50% of stocks
- price stability 5 / 100
- long-term debt $345M (3% of capital)
B+ — functional but not a standout on the balance sheet.
Total return vs. market
Return history isn't available for MDGL right now.
source: institutional data · return history unavailable
What just happened
missed estimates
Revenue hit $637M, while EPS landed at -$10.32.
Revenue was up 122% from last year. The business is selling harder, but it is still not printing profit.
$240M
revenue
-$10.32
eps
122%
revenue growth
the number that mattered
The $637M quarter proves Rezdiffra is moving. The -$10.32 EPS proves the launch still burns cash.
source: company earnings report
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What could go wrong
MDGL's risk profile is not abstract. It starts with one product, one launch curve, and a stock already trading near the top of a $265–$615 range.
med
single-product dependency
100% of the $958M revenue base comes from Rezdiffra. If adoption slows, reimbursement gets tougher, or safety questions appear, there is no second large revenue stream on this page to absorb the hit.
This risk puts effectively the entire visible revenue base in play.
med
the comparison base is now much harder
The old revenue estimate was $180M. The current page shows $958M. Beating a small number gets attention. Defending a much larger base is what decides whether this story deserves a $10B market cap.
If growth cools from here, sentiment has farther to fall because the market already paid up for success.
med
profits are still missing
Negative $21.90 eps means the business has revenue without bottom-line proof. That's common in launches. It's also the catch: a commercial win does not automatically become a profitable company on schedule.
If losses stay large for longer, investors have to keep underwriting a future that has not shown up in earnings yet.
med
volatility does not need a broken thesis
Price stability is 5/100, and the stock traded between $265 and $615 in the last 52 weeks. You do not need business failure for this name to move hard. You just need expectations to cool.
Multiple compression alone could hurt even if Rezdiffra keeps selling well.
The combined risk picture is simple: one product drives 100% of $958M revenue, profits are still negative, and the stock already reflects a launch that worked.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
calendar
next earnings update
You want the next report to answer a simple question: is revenue still building off the $958M base, or did the launch pull demand forward faster than expected.
trend
Rezdiffra sales durability
The old $180M model is gone. The only thing that matters now is whether demand keeps compounding from the much larger base the market already sees.
risk
single-product concentration
A second revenue leg is not visible on this page. Until one shows up, every operating question eventually becomes a Rezdiffra question.
metric
earnings predictability
55/100 is the signal that the model is still settling down. If that score slips from here, your underwriting gets harder.
Analyst rankings
short-term outlook
mixed
target data is thin here. in human-speak, analysts see the same setup you do: real launch momentum, limited diversification, and a higher bar now.
risk profile
volatile
0.75 beta looks calm until you see a 5/100 price stability score. this stock listens to company news more than market averages.
chart momentum
strong but fragile
a move toward the top of a $265–$615 range tells you momentum has been real. it does not tell you the stock has become forgiving.
earnings predictability
55/100
you are still looking at a business changing shape in real time. expect revisions, not stability.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
institutional ownership data for MDGL is being compiled.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
n/a
n/a
$561
current price
n/a
target midpoint · n/a from current
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