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what it is
Mercury sells car and home insurance, mostly in California, through 9,500 independent agents.
how it gets paid
Last year Mercury General made $6.0B in revenue. Private passenger auto was the main engine at $4.06B, or 68% of sales.
why it's growing
Revenue grew 9.4% last year. Latest quarterly revenue reached $4.5 billion, up 181% vs. prior year, while EPS rose to $6.11 on the SEC filing data.
what just happened
Mercury's last reported quarter delivered $3.66 in EPS versus a $1.96 estimate.
At a glance
B+ balance sheet — decent shape, but not bulletproof
5/100 earnings predictability — expect surprises
15.1x trailing p/e — the market's not buying it — or you found a deal
1.4% dividend yield — cash in your pocket every quarter
18.6% return on capital — nothing to write home about
xvary composite: 68/100 — average
What they do
Mercury sells car and home insurance, mostly in California, through 9,500 independent agents.
Mercury's edge is distribution. It sells through about 9,500 independent agents, so your policy shows up where people already shop for insurance. Premiums written → policies sold before claims → that keeps new business flowing, and the surge in California policies helped lift annual revenue to $6.0 billion.
How they make money
$6.0B
annual revenue · their business grew +9.4% last year
Private passenger auto
$4.06B
Homeowners
$1.23B
Commercial auto
$0.40B
Other lines
$0.32B
The products that matter
underwrites personal auto coverage
Private Passenger Auto Insurance
$6.0B revenue · core business
it's the entire $6.0B business, concentrated in california and growing 34.5% last year. if you want the short version, this is a premium-and-claims spreadsheet with license plates attached.
100% of revenue
Key numbers
$1.4B
fire losses
That is what Mercury has already paid for fire losses and related costs. Reality did the stress test for you.
84.4%
California exposure
Most of Mercury's premiums come from one state, so your downside is concentrated by design.
15.1x
trailing p/e
You are not paying a panic multiple. The stock already assumes earnings normalize better than the recent volatility suggests.
$112
18-month target
That is the published 18-month target, or about 20% above the current $93.47 share price.
Financial health
B+
strength
- balance sheet grade B+ — solid but not elite
- risk rank 3 — safer than 50% of stocks
- price stability 45 / 100
- return on equity 22% — $0.22 profit for every $1 investors have put in
B+ — functional but not a standout on the balance sheet.
Total return vs. market
You invested $10,000 in MCY 3 years ago → it's now worth $27,630.
The index would have given you $13,880.
source: institutional data · total return
What just happened
beat estimates
Mercury's last reported quarter delivered $3.66 in EPS versus a $1.96 estimate.
Latest quarterly revenue reached $4.5 billion, up 181% vs. prior year, while EPS rose to $6.11 on the SEC filing data. The broad story is simple: price and policy growth helped, even with catastrophe pressure still hanging around.
$4.5B
revenue
$3.66
eps
n/a
n/a
the number that mattered
The key number was the 86.73% EPS surprise, because it shows Mercury can still overpower low expectations even after a brutal catastrophe period.
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the top line has also benefited from a surge in the number of policies written in the home state.net investment income, a separate revenue line item, has expanded because of elevated average invested assets and cash combined with a higher yield. average annual yields on investments have risen due to the sale of certain low-yielding stocks and bonds with a total fair value of approximately $600 million. mercury has announced a dual listing of its common stock on nyse texas inc., a fully electronics equities exchange headquartered in dallas, texas. mercury has maintained its primary listing on the new york stock exchange and trades with the same mcy ticker symbol in nyse texas, inc.
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the business began trading on nyse texas, inc., on january 15, 2026.
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we expect share earnings to advance this year, in spite of obstacles.the company’s loss ratio has been negatively impacted by $507 million of catastrophe losses from the california wildfires and severe thunderstorms in texas and oklahoma.
-
mercury has paid out $1.4 billion for losses and loss adjustment costs related to the fires.
-
the business has received 100% of the reinsurance recoverable amounts billed to its reinsurers.
source: company earnings report, 2026
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What could go wrong
the #1 risk is catastrophe losses in california auto insurance.
med
catastrophe frequency
Mercury said $507M in catastrophe losses hit results from california wildfires and severe storms. For an insurer with $6.0B in annual revenue, that is not background noise.
If events like that repeat, earnings stay volatile and the low-teens earnings multiple stops looking cheap.
med
california concentration
Mercury is primarily a california private passenger auto insurer. Focus can help underwriting knowledge. It also means one regulatory environment and one weather-prone region carry outsized weight.
When your core market gets tougher, you do not have many other engines to hide behind.
med
reinsurance dependency
The good news is Mercury says it has received 100% of the recoverables billed to reinsurers so far. The less comfortable truth is that catastrophe-heavy insurers need that backstop to keep working.
The current event looks collectible. The real risk is needing more protection, more often, at worse economics.
med
earnings volatility
Earnings predictability is 5/100. That's the system telling you clean quarterly trends are not this company's personality.
If you want smooth compounding, a weather-sensitive regional insurer is a strange place to look.
$507M in catastrophe losses already shows how fast earnings can get hit, while the $1.4B paid out and 100% of billed reinsurance recovered show the balance sheet can still function through stress.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
metric
catastrophe losses vs. premium growth
Revenue grew 34.5% last year. Catastrophe losses still reached $507M. That spread is the whole story.
calendar
next earnings report
You want to see whether the latest $5.06 EPS quarter is repeatable or just a temporary break in the claims cycle.
risk
california regulation and pricing
A regional insurer lives or dies by whether it can price risk fast enough. In california, that is never a small detail.
trend
reinsurance collections and claims pattern
Mercury says it has collected 100% of billed recoverables. Keep watching whether that remains true as catastrophe activity stacks up.
Analyst rankings
short-term outlook
top 5%
momentum score 1 — the highest rating. in human-speak, analysts think this stock can outperform most names in the near term.
risk profile
average
stability score 3 — roughly middle of the road. Not a bunker stock. Not a disaster either.
chart momentum
average
technical score 3 — the chart is fine, but it is not screaming anything unusual.
earnings predictability
5 / 100
Very low predictability. Translation: one ugly claims quarter can wreck a clean earnings model.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
141 buyers vs. 119 sellers in 3q2025. total institutional holdings: 25.5M shares.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
$69
$154
$93
current price
$112
target midpoint · +20% from current · 3-5yr high: $185 (+100% · 20% ann'l return)
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