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what it is
Monarch owns two casino resorts, one in Reno and one in Black Hawk, and makes money from gambling, rooms, food, and events.
how it gets paid
Last year Monarch Casino made $545M in revenue. casino gaming was the main engine at $392.4M, or 72% of sales.
why it's growing
Revenue grew 4.4% last year. The miss sits awkwardly next to a business that still shows strong annual profitability.
what just happened
Monarch posted quarterly EPS of $1.25, missing the $1.50 analyst estimate by 16.67%.
At a glance
B+ balance sheet — decent shape, but not bulletproof
50/100 earnings predictability — expect surprises
16.5x trailing p/e — the market's not buying it — or you found a deal
1.3% dividend yield — cash in your pocket every quarter
18.0% return on capital — nothing to write home about
xvary composite: 65/100 — average
What they do
Monarch owns two casino resorts, one in Reno and one in Black Hawk, and makes money from gambling, rooms, food, and events.
This is a two-property company, but the properties are built to keep your whole weekend in-house. You gamble, book one of 1,333 rooms, eat at 14 restaurants, grab drinks at 10 bars, and never need to leave the building. That setup turns foot traffic into wallet share, and the result is a 38.0% operating margin (operating margin → profit after day-to-day costs → this business keeps a lot of each dollar).
How they make money
$545M
annual revenue · their business grew +4.4% last year
casino gaming
$392.4M
+4.8%
hotel
$76.3M
+3.9%
food and beverage
$54.5M
+2.6%
other resort revenue
$21.8M
+1.8%
The products that matter
flagship colorado casino resort
Monarch Black Hawk
$400M renovation completed in early 2022
this is the property that helped push company revenue to $545M last year. the build phase is over. now you want proof the traffic and spend hold.
growth driver
reno casino and hotel resort
Atlantis Reno
$100M improvement project wrapped late last year
this property just absorbed another $100M of capital. in a two-property company, you do not wait long to see whether that spend earns its keep.
capex payback
integrated gaming and hospitality business
Casino and Resort Operations
$545M revenue · 18.9% net margin
the whole business generated $545M in revenue and kept 18.9% as profit. for a regional operator, the margin is the part worth paying attention to.
19% margin
Key numbers
38.0%
operating margin
Operating margin → profit after running the business → Monarch keeps 38 cents of every sales dollar before interest and taxes.
18.0%
return on capital
Return on capital → profit earned on money invested → this says management is getting solid output from expensive casino assets.
$12M
long-term debt
Against a roughly $2B market cap and 1% of capital, debt is tiny, which gives Monarch room if gaming demand cools.
16.5x
trailing p/e
P/E → stock price divided by earnings → you are not paying a crazy multiple for a business with 20.5% net margins.
Financial health
B+
strength
- balance sheet grade B+ — solid but not elite
- risk rank 3 — safer than 50% of stocks
- price stability 60 / 100
- long-term debt $12M (1% of capital)
- net profit margin 20.5% — keeps 20 cents of every dollar in revenue
- return on equity 18% — $0.18 profit for every $1 investors have put in
B+ — functional but not a standout on the balance sheet.
Total return vs. market
You invested $10,000 in MCRI 3 years ago → it's now worth $13,020.
The index would have given you $14,770.
source: institutional data · total return
What just happened
missed estimates
Monarch posted quarterly EPS of $1.25, missing the $1.50 analyst estimate by 16.67%.
The miss sits awkwardly next to a business that still shows strong annual profitability. Full-year EPS climbed from $4.96 in 2024 to $5.65 in 2025, so the issue is not collapse. It is that expectations ran ahead of the quarter.
$136M
revenue
$1.25
eps
24.3%
gross margin
the number that mattered
The 16.67% EPS miss matters most because this stock is priced for steady execution, not surprise stumbles.
-
monarch casino & resort should maintain positive top-line momentum this year.in early 2022, monarch completed a multi-year, $400 million renovation of its black hawk property in colorado.
-
that renovation has since paid off in solid revenue growth.
-
the property is focused on the affluent, living in and around denver and boulder.
-
black hawk has been taking market share from local competitors.more recently, that is, late last year, the company wrapped up a $100 million improvement project at the atlantis property in reno.
-
this asset is generating favorable proceeds.
source: company earnings report, 2026
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What could go wrong
the #1 risk is black hawk visitation softening after the renovation lift.
med
Black Hawk demand cools
The Colorado property helped push revenue to $545M after a $400M renovation. If traffic or gaming spend fades, the easiest part of the growth story disappears fast.
With one operating segment and only two properties, weakness at the flagship asset shows up fast in company-wide revenue and margin.
med
Atlantis payback comes in light
Atlantis Reno just finished a $100M improvement project. If that capital does not lift hotel demand, gaming volume, or spend per guest, return on capital loses one of its main supports.
A two-property operator has no spare portfolio to hide a weak project. You would see the shortfall in earnings quickly.
med
regional consumer spend weakens
Nearly all $545M of revenue depends on discretionary spending in Colorado and Nevada. Gaming, rooms, and food are nice-to-have purchases when household budgets tighten.
The balance sheet helps, but it does not make casino demand defensive. A softer consumer would pressure both revenue and margin.
All $545M of revenue sits inside one operating segment spread across two properties. There is no weak division to hide in if property-level demand slips.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
earnings
next quarterly update
The key question is simple: does revenue stay around the recent $143M level while EPS keeps holding up.
trend
post-renovation demand
Black Hawk already had the big upgrade. Atlantis just got its turn. You want proof both properties can hold traffic after the fresh-paint effect wears off.
risk
regional competition
Management says Black Hawk has been taking share from local rivals. That matters more in a two-property story than it would in a broad casino portfolio.
metric
margin discipline
An 18.9% net margin is the part that makes this stock interesting. If costs rise faster than revenue, the valuation case thins out in a hurry.
Analyst rankings
short-term outlook
top 20%
Momentum score 2 — analysts expect above-average price performance over the next 12 months. in human-speak, they think the stock still has some room.
risk profile
average
Stability score 3 — this sits in the middle. You are not buying a bunker stock, but you are not buying a balance-sheet mess either.
chart momentum
top 20%
Technical score 2 — the recent trading setup looks better than most stocks, which helps when fundamentals are good but not spectacular.
earnings predictability
50 / 100
The business can post good numbers and still surprise you quarter to quarter. That is normal for a regional gaming operator.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
institutions have been net buying for 3 consecutive quarters — 118 buyers vs. 100 sellers in 3q2025. total institutional holdings: 11.7M shares. net buying for 3 quarters.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
$72
$139
$93
current price
$106
target midpoint · +14% from current · 3-5yr high: $165 (+75% · 16% ann'l return)
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