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what it is
Moelis advises companies, governments, and buyout firms on selling themselves, raising money, and surviving messy balance-sheet moments.
how it gets paid
Last year Moelis & made $1.4B in revenue. Mergers & acquisitions advisory was the main engine at $0.68B, or 45% of sales.
what just happened
Moelis posted a Q4 EPS of $1.13 versus a $0.75 estimate, a 50.67% surprise.
At a glance
B++ balance sheet — above average — nothing keeping you up at night
20/100 earnings predictability — expect surprises
27.3x trailing p/e — priced about right
3.9% dividend yield — cash in your pocket every quarter
44.0% return on capital — every dollar works hard here
xvary composite: 51/100 — below average
What they do
Moelis advises companies, governments, and buyout firms on selling themselves, raising money, and surviving messy balance-sheet moments.
Moelis sells advice, not balance-sheet muscle. That matters because clients hire judgment when a deal is existential, and Moelis still posts a 44.0% return on capital (capital efficiency → profit from each dollar invested → this firm converts reputation into cash). With 1,161 employees and a global independent model, you are paying for a small partnership that can win rich mandates without funding them.
How they make money
$1.4B
annual revenue
Mergers & acquisitions advisory
$0.68B
Capital markets advisory
$0.30B
Restructuring advisory
$0.23B
Private capital advisory
$0.23B
Other corporate finance advice
$0.08B
The products that matter
advises on deals and strategy
Strategic Advisory
part of the $1.4B revenue base
This is the core franchise. Boards hire Moelis when the stakes are high, and those mandates feed the same $1.4B revenue pool that produced a 13.0% net margin. No factory. No inventory. Just expensive judgment.
relationship business
advises public and private companies
Corporate Clients
supports the full advisory platform
The page does not split revenue by client type, so the honest read is simple. Corporate demand has to stay healthy enough to support a 27.3x trailing multiple and a $4B market cap. If the client pipeline wobbles, the stock feels it before the filings explain it.
cycle-sensitive
works with buyout firms and sponsors
Financial Sponsors
deal activity watch
Sponsor work matters because private equity helps set the industry's tempo. You do not get a clean revenue number here, so you watch the firm-wide 20 / 100 predictability score instead. When visibility is this low, the aggregate score is telling you the pipeline is still a moving target.
volume tells the story
Key numbers
44.0%
return on capital
Return on capital → profit produced from the money in the business → so what: Moelis turns a light balance sheet into very high economics.
27.3x
trailing p/e
P/E → price divided by annual earnings → so what: you are paying a premium multiple for an advisory firm with cyclical revenue.
3.9%
dividend yield
Dividend yield → cash paid back to you each year at today's price → so what: part of your return comes from income, not just multiple expansion.
$102
18-month target
Target price → one research view of fair value over 18 months → so what: it implies about 44% upside from $71.08, but the range is wide.
Financial health
B++
strength
- balance sheet grade B++ — above average financial health
- risk rank 3 — safer than 50% of stocks
- price stability 45 / 100
- net profit margin 13.0% — keeps 13 cents of every dollar in revenue
- return on equity 44% — $0.44 profit for every $1 investors have put in
B++ — functional but not a standout on the balance sheet.
Total return vs. market
You invested $10,000 in MC 3 years ago → it's now worth $20,580.
The index would have given you $13,920.
source: institutional data · total return
What just happened
beat estimates
Moelis posted a Q4 EPS of $1.13 versus a $0.75 estimate, a 50.67% surprise.
The fourth quarter looked strong because advisory activity recovered and revenue likely landed near $391 million in the base research, while outside reporting put the quarter at $487.94 million. That gap tells you the business was better than expected, but still noisy.
$487.94M
revenue
$1.13
eps
18.5%
operating margin
the number that mattered
The 50.67% EPS surprise matters most because advisory firms are judged on whether revenue falls through to profit, and this quarter did.
-
moelis & company likely posted solid fourth-quarter results.
-
revenues probably expanded to $391 million.this top-line expansion benefited from strength in m&a advisory as customers pursued more businesses and sold debt and equity to invest in their businesses. capital markets was probably a strong performer, as investments to strengthen its capabilities paid off.
-
private capital advisory likely benefited from strong hiring, helping the business expand.
-
that said, compensation expenses probably remained elevated given the ongoing hiring spree.
-
even so, we estimate earnings per share reached $0.75 in the december quarter.
source: company earnings report, 2026
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What could go wrong
The main risk here is simple and company-specific: Moelis still relies on a deal calendar it does not control, while the stock already reflects a cleaner recovery than the underlying predictability score does.
med
advisory revenue is cyclical by design
Moelis produced $1.4B in annual revenue, and this page gives you no recurring segment to hide behind. If M&A, financing, or sponsor activity slows, the revenue line feels it quickly.
Moelis produced $1.4B in annual revenue, and this page gives you no recurring segment to hide behind. If M&A, financing, or sponsor activity slows, the revenue line feels it quickly.
med
20 / 100 predictability is the warning label
That score means earnings have been hard to forecast. In human-speak: visibility is weak, and weak visibility paired with a 27.3x trailing multiple is how disappointment gets repriced.
That score means earnings have been hard to forecast. In human-speak: visibility is weak, and weak visibility paired with a 27.3x trailing multiple is how disappointment gets repriced.
med
the valuation leaves less room for a soft patch
At $71.08 and 27.3x trailing earnings, you are not buying a distressed asset. You are buying a recovery story that still has to show up in the numbers.
At $71.08 and 27.3x trailing earnings, you are not buying a distressed asset. You are buying a recovery story that still has to show up in the numbers.
med
the stock itself is only mid-pack on stability
Price stability is 45 / 100 and the risk rank is 3, or safer than about half the market. That is manageable. It is not defensive.
Price stability is 45 / 100 and the risk rank is 3, or safer than about half the market. That is manageable. It is not defensive.
If deals keep reopening, MC can work. If activity stalls, 27.3x earnings gives you less cushion than the business cycle suggests.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
the key metric
fy2026 EPS vs. $3.00
This is the cleanest test on the page. If estimates slip below $3.00 while the stock stays near $71.08, the valuation case gets thinner fast.
ownership trend
institutional buying streak
Institutions were net buyers for 3 straight quarters. You want that streak intact if you are underwriting a cyclical rebound before the reported numbers fully catch up.
risk signal
predictability staying at 20 / 100
The market can tolerate messy earnings for a while. It does not usually keep paying 27.3x forever if the mess never clears.
valuation check
price vs. target band
The page shows a $102 midpoint and a $144 upper bound. That sounds generous. It only matters if the path from $1.4B toward $2B keeps looking real.
Analyst rankings
earnings predictability
20 / 100
in human-speak, analysts do not have a smooth line of sight into future earnings here.
risk rank
3
Safer than about 50% of stocks. Not reckless. Not a bunker.
price stability
45 / 100
The stock has not behaved like a low-drama compounder. You should expect movement.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
institutions have been net buying for 3 consecutive quarters — 222 buyers vs. 155 sellers in 3q2025. total institutional holdings: 77.3M shares. net buying for 3 quarters.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
$59
$144
$71
current price
$102
target midpoint · +44% from current · 3-5yr high: $90 (+25% · 10% ann'l return)
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