XVARY Composite Score
58
/ 100
Below Average
Combines growth, value, risk, and momentum factors into a single institutional-grade score.
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What it is
Mercantile Bank takes deposits and makes loans to Michigan businesses, households, and local governments.
How it gets paid
Last year Mercantile Bank made $330M in revenue. net interest income was the main engine at $248M, or 75% of sales.
Why it's growing
Revenue grew 2.7% last year. The number that matters is $5.46, the 2025 EPS estimate, because today's $54.61 stock price implies only about 10.0x forward earnings.
What just happened
EPS came in at $4.06, up 178% vs. prior year, on revenue of $248M.
At a Glance
B+ balance sheet — decent shape, but not bulletproof
80/100 earnings predictability — you can trust these numbers
10.0x trailing p/e — the market's not buying it — or you found a deal
3.1% dividend yield — cash in your pocket every quarter
$5.46 fy2025 eps est
XVARY composite: 58/100 — below average
What They Do
Mercantile Bank takes deposits and makes loans to Michigan businesses, households, and local governments.
This is a local scale story. Mercantile runs 45 offices across central and western Michigan and manages $6.84 billion in assets, which gives you a real deposit base and local lending relationships. Banking jargon: deposits → customer cash the bank can lend → so what, cheaper funding helps it earn more on every loan.
How They Make Money
$330M
annual revenue · their business grew +2.7% last year
net interest income
$248M
service charges and fees
$46M
mortgage and other banking income
$36M
The Products That Matter
Lends on income-producing property
Commercial real estate loans
52.8% of loan book
this is 52.8% of loans. if local property values wobble, the balance sheet feels it first.
core risk
Earns the lending spread
Net interest income
$281M · 85% of revenue
this $281M line is the core engine. the bank gathers deposits, lends at a higher rate, and keeps the spread.
main profit engine
Generates banking fees
Non-interest income
$49M · 15% of revenue
only $49M comes from fees and other non-lending sources, so diversification exists but it is limited.
small cushion
Key Numbers
10.0x
trailing p/e
You are paying 10 times earnings for a bank expected to earn $5.46 a share in 2025, versus 10.9 times based on trailing EPS of $4.99.
3.1%
dividend yield
You are getting paid while you wait, and the bank has grown its dividend 8.0% historically.
$446M
long-term debt
Debt equals 34% of capital, which is fine in calm markets and less fun if credit costs rise.
80
predictability score
That score says earnings have been fairly steady, which matters more for a regional bank than a flashy story stock.
Financial Health
B+
Strength
- balance sheet grade B+ — solid but not elite
- risk rank 3 — safer than 50% of stocks
- price stability 65 / 100
- long-term debt $446M (34% of capital)
B+ — functional but not a standout on the balance sheet.
Total Return vs. Market
source: institutional data · return history unavailable
What Just Happened
beat estimates
EPS came in at $4.06, up 178% vs. prior year, on revenue of $248M.
The quarter looks huge next to last year. The cleaner read is the full-year line: EPS slipped from $5.13 in 2023 to $4.93 in 2024, while annual revenue rose 2.7% to $330M.
$248M
revenue
$4.06
eps
0.0%
gross margin
the number that mattered
The number that matters is $5.46, the 2025 EPS estimate, because today's $54.61 stock price implies only about 10.0x forward earnings.
source: company earnings report, 2026
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What Could Go Wrong
The top risk here is commercial real estate concentration inside a small regional bank balance sheet.
High
Commercial real estate concentration
52.8% of the loan portfolio is in commercial real estate. if Michigan property values or occupancy weaken, more than half the book is in the blast radius.
exposes 52.8% of loans to one asset class
High
Merger dilution and execution
the pending deal brings about 30% dilution for existing holders. if integration drags or projected benefits disappoint, you keep the dilution and lose the upside story.
directly changes your ownership percentage
Med
Rate sensitivity
$281M of revenue comes from net interest income. that means deposit costs versus loan yields is not a side issue — it is the business model.
pressures 85% of revenue
Med
Limited fee-income cushion
non-interest income is just $49M, or 15% of revenue. when lending slows, there is not a large fee business waiting to catch the fall.
only 15% of revenue is diversified away from spread income
52.8% of the loan book sits in commercial real estate, 85% of revenue comes from net interest income, and the deal dilutes existing holders by about 30%. that is a lot of pressure points for a stock trading at 9.2x earnings.
Source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay Attention To
Calendar
Q1 2026 earnings release
estimated for april 21, 2026, with consensus EPS at $1.33. the key question is whether management talks more about credit quality or more about merger integration.
Risk
Commercial real estate exposure
52.8% is the number to watch. if that share stays elevated after the merger, the market will keep treating this like a concentrated bank, not a re-rated one.
Metric
Net interest income
$281M currently drives 85% of revenue. if this line softens while non-interest income stays at just $49M, the earnings base gets thinner fast.
Trend
Institutional direction
holdings fell 0.85% last quarter, and Banc Funds Co. cut its stake by 17.9%. that is not a panic signal. it is also not quiet accumulation.
Analyst Rankings
earnings predictability
80 / 100
80 / 100 means the earnings pattern has been steadier than most small caps. in human-speak, analysts think this bank usually behaves like a bank, not a quarterly surprise machine.
Source: institutional data
Institutional Activity
institutional ownership data for MBWM is being compiled.
Source: institutional data
Price Targets
3-5 year target range
$55
Current price
Target midpoint · from current
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