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what it is
Mobileye sells the chips and software that help cars see the road, avoid crashes, and inch toward self-driving.
how it gets paid
Last year Mobileye Global made $1.9B in revenue.
why it's growing
Revenue grew 14.5% last year. Annual revenue reached $1.9 billion, up 14.5% vs. prior year, but the December quarter fell 9% to $446 million as customers worked through chip inventory.
what just happened
Latest earnings showed $0.06 EPS versus a $0.05 estimate, but the bigger story is still uneven demand.
At a glance
B balance sheet — gets the job done, barely
24.9x trailing p/e — priced about right
6.5% return on capital — nothing to write home about
xvary composite: 29/100 — weak
$0.40 fy2027 eps est
What they do
Mobileye sells the chips and software that help cars see the road, avoid crashes, and inch toward self-driving.
Mobileye already has its tech in more than 200 million vehicles, according to the company. Scale moat → years of driving data and automaker ties → so what: when your safety system is already designed into millions of cars, replacing it is slow and expensive. Intel still controls 98.6% of voting power, which keeps strategy steady even when the stock acts seasick.
How they make money
$1.9B
annual revenue · their business grew +14.5% last year
total revenue
$1.9B
+14.5%
The products that matter
camera-based driver-assistance hardware and software
EyeQ processors & ADAS
$1.9B revenue · estimated 70% share
it is the entire $1.9B revenue base in this snapshot. the upside is scale in a growing category. the risk is that one product family carries almost the whole investment case.
core
Key numbers
$14
18-month target
That is 61% above the $8.70 stock price, which tells you expectations are depressed even after the selloff.
$4B
2029 revenue
That is a little more than 2 times the current $1.9 billion revenue base, so the long-term case needs real acceleration.
23.2%
operating margin
Operating margin → profit from the core business → so what: Mobileye is still losing money on operations today.
24.9x
trailing p/e
P/E → price versus last year's earnings → so what: you are paying a growth multiple for a company guiding just flat to 5% growth in 2026.
Financial health
B
strength
- balance sheet grade B — adequate — nothing special
- risk rank 4 — safer than 20% of stocks
- price stability 10 / 100
- net profit margin 21.6% — keeps 22 cents of every dollar in revenue
- return on equity 6% — $0.06 profit for every $1 investors have put in
B — functional but not a standout on the balance sheet.
Total return vs. market
Return history isn't available for MBLY right now.
source: institutional data · return history unavailable
What just happened
beat estimates
Latest earnings showed $0.06 EPS versus a $0.05 estimate, but the bigger story is still uneven demand.
Annual revenue reached $1.9 billion, up 14.5% vs. prior year, but the December quarter fell 9% to $446 million as customers worked through chip inventory. Gross margin was 48.5%, which says the product is valuable even while volumes wobble.
$1.4B
revenue
-$0.33
eps
48.5%
gross margin
the number that mattered
The key number was the 9% December-quarter revenue decline to $446 million, because it shows inventory digestion is still overpowering the long-term autonomy story.
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mobileye has undergone heavy selling pressure so far in 2026.
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december-quarter revenue fell 9% vs. prior year to $446 million, as tier-1 automotive suppliers drew down eyeq chip inventories, cutting unit shipments 11% to 8.3 million.
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management projected 2026 revenue of flat to 5% growth and adjusted operating income to $170 million-$220 million, well below the $280 million earned in 2025.
-
the stock has traded near 52-week lows recently.
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the commercial pipeline tells a different story.in early january, mobileye secured a surround adas design win with a major u.s. automaker to deploy the eyeq6h processor, a single chip that consolidates multiple driver-assistance functions for hands-free highway driving, across a broad vehicle lineup.
source: company earnings report, 2026
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What could go wrong
the top risk is auto production softness hitting adas orders. when tier-one customers and automakers pause, Mobileye feels it quickly.
med
auto production softness and inventory resets
December-quarter revenue fell 9% vs. prior year to $446M, and management guided 2026 revenue to flat to 5% growth. That is what cyclical exposure looks like in plain English.
If auto customers keep digesting inventory, the $2B revenue expectation and $170M adjusted operating-income guide both get harder to defend.
med
shareholder lawsuit and securities scrutiny
This snapshot cites an active shareholder lawsuit alleging fiduciary breaches and an external investigation into potential securities issues. We do not have a quantified liability here, so we are not pretending otherwise.
Legal noise matters because MBLY already trades near its low. When sentiment is this thin, even unquantified overhangs can keep the multiple compressed.
med
turning design wins into scaled profit
A surround ADAS win with a major U.S. automaker is encouraging. It is not the same thing as broad, profitable deployment. Mobileye still has to convert pipeline into shipped volume and margin.
This is the gap between a good technology story and a good stock. Until wins translate into cleaner earnings power, investors will keep asking for proof.
med
competitive catch-up in assisted driving
An estimated 70% share is real. It also paints a target on the business. Staying ahead means continued R&D spend in a category where chips, software, and sensor approaches keep evolving.
The danger is not losing the whole business at once. It is pricing pressure, slower design-win velocity, and a market that stops treating the lead as durable.
Flat to 5% growth on a $1.9B revenue base leaves very little room for error. If demand stays weak and the $170M operating-income guide slips, the stock loses the main argument for a rebound.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
earnings
next guidance reset
watch whether management still holds to flat to 5% revenue growth and $170M adjusted operating income for 2026
demand
order recovery after the $446M december quarter
one quarter does not make a trend, but another weak auto build cycle would make the slowdown harder to dismiss
risk
litigation overhang
track whether the shareholder lawsuit or securities review turns into a quantified financial issue instead of just an overhang
metric
profit conversion
$0.25 of expected 2026 EPS against a $7B market cap tells you the market still wants margin expansion, not just revenue survival
Analyst rankings
short-term outlook
bottom 5%
momentum score 5 — the lowest rating. in human-speak, analysts expect MBLY to lag most stocks near term.
risk profile
below average
stability score 4 means more volatility than most names. you should expect bigger swings here.
chart momentum
average
technical score 3 says there is no heroic reversal signal yet. the stock is still trading like damaged goods.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
105 buyers vs. 112 sellers in 4q2025. total institutional holdings: 0.2B shares.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
$6
$22
$9
current price
$14
target midpoint · +61% from current · 3-5yr high: $35 (+300% · 41% ann'l return)
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