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what it is
It is a bank that funds apartment loans, mortgage pipelines, small-business loans, and old-fashioned local banking.
how it gets paid
Last year Merchants Bancorp made $1.2B in revenue. mortgage warehouse financing was the main engine at $0.42B, or 35% of sales.
why growth slowed
Revenue fell 7.8% last year to ~$1.2B. Quarter-to-quarter revenue and EPS can still swing with mortgage warehouse and gain-on-sale timing— use the filing, not one noisy feed line.
what just happened
Latest print in the data set showed about $2.50 EPS in one quarter— confirm against the 10-Q; ignore triple-digit vs. prior year revenue% paired with full-year revenue down 7.8% (that mix is mis-tagged).
At a glance
C++ balance sheet — some cracks in the foundation
60/100 earnings predictability — reasonably predictable
11.9x trailing p/e — the market's not buying it — or you found a deal
1.1% dividend yield — cash in your pocket every quarter
$3.78 fy2025 eps est
xvary composite: 41/100 — below average
What they do
It is a bank that funds apartment loans, mortgage pipelines, small-business loans, and old-fashioned local banking.
Merchants wins by living in narrow lending lanes that big banks treat like side quests. Its core model is short-duration funding: loans sold within 90 days of origination, according to the company description, which means your money is tied up for months, not years. With $19.4 billion in assets and $13.0 billion in deposits at December 31, 2025, it has enough scale to matter but is still small enough to stay picky.
How they make money
$1.2B
annual revenue · their business grew -7.8% last year
mortgage warehouse financing
$0.42B
multi-family housing
$0.30B
retail and correspondent mortgage banking
$0.22B
community banking
$0.16B
SBA, agriculture, and tax-credit syndication
$0.11B
The products that matter
fha loan origination & servicing
Multi-family Mortgage Banking
$672M · 56% of segment mix
this is the core business at $672M, and it fell 5% from last year. when apartment and healthcare lending slows, the whole story slows with it.
core engine
funding for mortgage originators
Warehouse Lending
$360M · 30% of segment mix
this $360M business was down 8%, which makes it the sharper drag right now. short-term lending sounds defensive until originators stop needing as much of it.
soft patch
deposits & commercial lending
Traditional Banking
$168M · $13.0B deposits
the revenue line is smaller at $168M, but the $13.0B deposit base matters because it funds the rest of the platform. flat growth here means stability, not acceleration.
funding base
Key numbers
$3.78
2025 EPS
Projected EPS is $3.78 versus $6.30 in 2024. plain English: profit is expected to fall 40.0%. so what: your cheap multiple depends on a rebound.
11.9x
trailing p/e
Jargon: P/E → price divided by earnings → so what: you are not paying a premium, but low multiples often mean the market smells a slowdown.
$4.2B
long-term debt
That debt equals 69% of capital. plain English: borrowed money is doing a lot of the work here. so what: higher rates hit harder.
$13.0B
deposits
Deposits are the raw material for a bank. so what: if those customers demand higher rates, margins get pinched.
Financial health
C++
strength
- balance sheet grade C++ — below average — limited financial resources
- risk rank 4 — safer than 20% of stocks
- price stability 40 / 100
- long-term debt $4.2B (69% of capital)
C++ — balance sheet grade and long-term debt are flagged. this stock carries more risk than average.
Total return vs. market
Return history isn't available for MBIN right now.
source: institutional data · return history unavailable
What just happened
mixed · verify quarter
Full-year revenue was ~$1.2B, down 7.8%— the old “$893M up 196%” block contradicted that and is treated as a mis-tagged quarter/vs. prior year pair.
Use ~$1.2B FY revenue and segment mix on-page for the base case. If you see a single quarter with huge vs. prior year%, reconcile to mortgage banking revenue recognition and comparable periods in the filing.
$1.2B
annual revenue (FY)
~$2.50
quarter eps (verify)
−7.8%
FY revenue vs. prior year
the number that mattered
The −7.8% full-year revenue move matters because it frames whether the cheap multiple is a bargain or a warning— not a one-quarter headline.
source: company earnings report, 2026
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What could go wrong
the #1 risk here is a prolonged slowdown in multi-family and warehouse lending volume. those are the engines, and both are already moving in the wrong direction.
high
core lending slowdown
multi-family mortgage is $672M and down 5%. warehouse lending is $360M and down 8%. together they make up 86% of the shown business mix.
if those lines keep shrinking, the stock stops looking cheap and starts looking correctly discounted.
high
margin normalization
a 38.8% profit margin is the whole attraction. if funding costs rise, loan pricing weakens, or mix shifts, that number can come back to earth fast.
the multiple only looks modest because current profitability looks exceptional.
med
balance sheet and funding pressure
long-term debt is $4.2B, or 69% of capital, and the balance sheet grade is C++. that is workable until it is not.
you have less room for a credit stumble or a funding squeeze than the margin figure suggests.
low
index-driven ownership cuts both ways
recent index inclusion can create forced buying now and mechanical selling later. that's technical support, not fundamental support.
expect the shareholder base to be more passive, and the stock action to be a little less informative.
if revenue keeps falling around the current -4.4% pace and the 38.8% margin slips, the two pillars of the story — profitability and cheapness — both weaken at once.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
the key metric
revenue growth moving above -4.4%
this is the cleanest tell. if the decline improves, the 11.9x multiple has room to look too low rather than merely cautious.
calendar
next quarterly report
due late april 2026. you want to see whether the loan businesses are still shrinking and whether the margin stays anywhere near 38.8%.
industry trend
multi-family lending volume
MBIN is tied to apartment and healthcare finance. when those projects slow, pipeline revenue usually follows.
capital allocation
$100M buyback execution
repurchasing stock can support per-share earnings, but if the core businesses remain weak, buybacks become cosmetic fast.
Analyst rankings
earnings predictability
60 / 100
earnings are moderately predictable. in human-speak, analysts think they can model this bank, but they do not fully trust the stability of the underlying drivers.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
institutional ownership data for MBIN is being compiled.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
n/a
n/a
$45
current price
n/a
target midpoint · n/a from current
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