Start here if you're new
what it is
Matson moves containers across the Pacific and makes extra money helping freight travel across the mainland too.
how it gets paid
Last year Matson made $3.3B in revenue. Hawaii service was the main engine at $0.99B, or 30% of sales.
why growth slowed
Revenue fell 2.3% last year. We project top- and bottom-line declines in 2026, followed by a rebound in 2027, as more efficient ships enter service and assuming more stable market conditions.
what just happened
Fourth-quarter EPS came in at $3.61, while full-year EPS fell to $12.95 from $13.93 in 2024.
At a glance
A balance sheet — strong enough to weather a downturn
40/100 earnings predictability — expect surprises
12.8x trailing p/e — the market's not buying it — or you found a deal
0.9% dividend yield — cash in your pocket every quarter
8.0% return on capital — nothing to write home about
xvary composite: 81/100 — above average
What they do
Matson moves containers across the Pacific and makes extra money helping freight travel across the mainland too.
Matson owns a Pacific network you cannot build overnight: 29 vessels plus about 73,600 containers and chassis. Shipping capacity → space on ships → so what: if your freight has to reach Hawaii, Alaska, Guam, or Micronesia on time, reliability beats theory. That network helped produce a 20.0% operating margin on $3.3 billion of revenue, while long-term debt was just $322 million, or 6% of capital.
How they make money
$3.3B
annual revenue · their business grew -2.3% last year
Hawaii service
$0.99B
China service
$0.89B
Alaska service
$0.56B
Guam and Micronesia service
$0.26B
Matson Logistics
$0.59B
The products that matter
ocean freight and integrated logistics
Transpacific Container Shipping
$3.3B revenue base
it is the center of gravity here. this business moved the company to $3.3B of revenue last year and produced $880M in the latest quarter.
core engine
truck brokerage and warehousing
Integrated Logistics
supports the full network
this is the inland piece that keeps freight moving after the ship arrives. the data here is thin, so you are underwriting the system, not a neatly disclosed segment mix.
network support
fleet efficiency upgrade
Vessel Renewal Program
$1B commitments
a portion of payments from the $1B vessel program is still pending. that should improve efficiency later, but it ties up cash and execution bandwidth first.
capital bet
Key numbers
$235
high case
The long-range bull case is $235, so your upside story still depends on earnings recovering after a projected -8.5% growth stretch.
12.8x
trailing p/e
P/E → years of earnings you are paying for → so what: you are not paying a crazy price, but cheap stocks stay cheap when profits shrink.
20.0%
operating margin
Operating margin → profit after running the business → so what: Matson still converts one-fifth of sales into operating profit.
$322M
long-term debt
Debt is just 6% of capital, which gives Matson room to wait out a freight slump without begging lenders for mercy.
Financial health
A
strength
- balance sheet grade A — very strong financial position
- risk rank 3 — safer than 50% of stocks
- price stability 45 / 100
- long-term debt $322M (6% of capital)
- net profit margin 8.1% — keeps 8 cents of every dollar in revenue
- return on equity 7% — $0.07 profit for every $1 investors have put in
A — among the top-rated companies for balance sheet quality.
Total return vs. market
You invested $10,000 in MATX 3 years ago → it's now worth $24,240.
The index would have given you $13,880.
source: institutional data · total return
What just happened
beat estimates
Fourth-quarter EPS came in at $3.61, while full-year EPS fell to $12.95 from $13.93 in 2024.
Revenue for the quarter was $851.9 million, based on the company's February 2026 release. The near-term story is simple: Matson still earns real money, but management's 2026 EPS view of $12.30 says the downcycle is not done.
$851.9M
revenue
$3.61
eps
$12.95
fy eps
the number that mattered
The number that mattered was the 2026 EPS estimate of $12.30, because it sits below 2025's $12.95 and tells you recovery is getting pushed out.
-
matson likely posted another top- and bottom-line retreat to close out 2025.granted, our bottom-line forecast for the december quarter is better-than-initially feared, thanks to the suspension of port entry fees on chinese built ships on november 10th. management noted incremental costs north of $6 million associated with the short-lived impact of port entry fees (began october 14th) that likely reduced operating income. this compares favorably with management’s previous expectation of $20 million in fees in the fourth quarter.
-
still, we project revenue and earnings declines due to the challenging geopolitical climate.container volumes and freight rates across the core transpacific trade lane remained below the prior-year peak. comparisons were tough, as retailers and businesses accelerated their purchases ahead of the april 2nd ‘‘liberation day’’. elsewhere, weak tourism activity in hawaii and guam were partially offset by growth in the alaska trade lane amid a low unemployment rate and oil production activity.
-
we don’t see performance stabilizing until at least next year.fleet investments, as well as efforts to reengineer matson’s logistics footprint in southeast asia should continues to constrain profits and margins. in fact, a portion of payments from the $1 billion new vessel construction plan has been pushed out to the first half of 2026, with delivery of the three ships as early as 2027. meantime, vietnam has become an important alternative sourcing option through its ho chi minh hub and expects cargo movement from neighboring countries to grow in 2026 and beyond. however, fleet supply should exceed demand, and alternative sourcing efforts are still unlikely to replace lost volumes in china.
-
we project top- and bottom-line declines in 2026, followed by a rebound in 2027, as more efficient ships enter service and assuming more stable market conditions if tariff headwinds fade and global trade flows normalize.
-
the stock carries our highest (1) rank for timeliness.
source: company earnings report, 2026
Get this snapshot in your inbox
This page, delivered free — plus weekly updates when the numbers change. plain english, no spam.
weekly updates
earnings alerts
plain english
no spam
What could go wrong
the #1 risk is a drop in transpacific freight volumes and rates.
med
core lane demand weakens again
the page already tells you container volumes and freight rates in the core transpacific trade lane remained below the previous peak. if that softness continues, MATX has no other disclosed engine here big enough to offset it.
impact: this exposes essentially the full $3.3B revenue base, because the snapshot shows one integrated shipping and logistics model rather than a diversified profit stack.
med
$1B vessel program arrives into a weaker cycle
a portion of payments tied to roughly $1B in vessel commitments is still pending. if freight conditions stay soft while those payments come due, returns on that capital look worse before they look better.
impact: margins and free cash flexibility can tighten at the same time. that is manageable with an A balance sheet, but it is still a real pressure point.
med
route economics are exposed to port and trade policy
the suspension of port entry fees on chinese-built ships on november 10 mattered enough to improve expectations for the quarter. that tells you policy changes can swing economics quickly on specific routes.
impact: even without a demand collapse, fee or regulatory changes can pressure pricing, route mix, and near-term profitability.
A weaker transpacific market would lean on the full revenue base, and the remaining payments on the $1B vessel program reduce flexibility if the cycle softens at the wrong time.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
earnings
does revenue hold near $3B
last year printed $3.3B. the FY2026 estimate is $3B. that gap is the whole debate.
trend
freight rates and transpacific volumes
the company already flagged softer volumes and rates versus the prior peak. you want to see that pressure stop getting worse.
risk
vessel payments versus margin recovery
a portion of the $1B vessel commitment is still ahead. if those payments rise before profitability does, the stock will feel it.
metric
return on capital above 10%
10.0% return on capital is fine, not special. for a rerating, you want new fleet investment to lift that number, not just preserve it.
Analyst rankings
short-term outlook
top 5%
momentum score 1 — the highest rating. in human-speak, the model likes forward performance more than the current skepticism in the stock price.
risk profile
average
stability score 3 — middle-of-the-road risk. you are not buying a bunker stock, but this is not a balance-sheet train wreck either.
chart momentum
bottom 5%
technical score 5 — the recent chart has been weak. the market is still arguing with the fundamentals.
earnings predictability
40 / 100
earnings are harder to model here than in steadier businesses. expect quarterly noise, and sometimes more than noise.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
institutions have been net selling for 2 consecutive quarters — 145 buyers vs. 216 sellers in 3q2025. total institutional holdings: 27.4M shares. net selling for 2 quarters.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
$89
$211
$166
current price
$150
target midpoint · 9% from current · 3-5yr high: $235 (+40% · 10% ann'l return)
Want the deeper analysis?
The full deep dive: dcf model, scenario analysis, competitive moat breakdown, and quarterly tracking — everything on this page, taken further.
see plans from $5/moThe deep dive