Start here if you're new
what it is
Mattel sells the brands you already know, from Barbie and Hot Wheels to Fisher-Price and American Girl.
how it gets paid
Last year Mattel made $5.3B in revenue. Dolls was the main engine at $1.84B, or 35% of sales.
why growth slowed
Revenue fell 0.6% last year. SEC data shows the latest quarter at $3.6B in revenue and $0.90 EPS with 50.1% gross margin.
what just happened
The cleanest read is this: consensus says Mattel missed by 64.55%, even as reported revenue looked strong.
At a glance
B+ balance sheet — decent shape, but not bulletproof
30/100 earnings predictability — expect surprises
13.8x trailing p/e — the market's not buying it — or you found a deal
12.5% return on capital — nothing to write home about
xvary composite: 55/100 — below average
What they do
Mattel sells the brands you already know, from Barbie and Hot Wheels to Fisher-Price and American Girl.
You do not ask your kid for a generic fashion doll. You hear Barbie. That brand pull lets Mattel spend about 10% of sales on advertising, or roughly $530 million on $5.3 billion of revenue, and keep shelf space crowded in its favor. International markets are 41% of sales, so these brands travel.
How they make money
$5.3B
annual revenue · their business grew -0.6% last year
Dolls
$1.84B
+3.0%
Vehicles
$1.42B
+2.0%
Infant, Toddler & Preschool
$1.11B
4.0%
Action Figures, Building Sets, Games & Other
$0.93B
5.0%
The products that matter
iconic toy brand portfolio
Power Brands
$5.3B revenue base
barbie, hot wheels, and fisher-price support the full $5.3B business, but the 30/100 predictability score tells you even strong intellectual property doesn't make results smooth.
the whole story
Key numbers
18.5%
operating margin
Operating margin → profit after running the business → so what: Mattel keeps about $18.50 from every $100 of sales before interest and taxes.
$1.7B
long-term debt
Debt is 21% of capital, which is manageable, but it still matters in a business tied to holiday demand.
12.5%
return on capital
Return on capital → profit generated from money invested in the business → so what: Mattel is good, not magical, at turning dollars into earnings.
41%
international sales
Nearly half the business comes from outside the U.S., which spreads demand but also adds currency and regional retail risk.
Financial health
B+
strength
- balance sheet grade B+ — solid but not elite
- risk rank 3 — safer than 50% of stocks
- price stability 55 / 100
- long-term debt $1.7B (21% of capital)
- net profit margin 10.5% — keeps 10 cents of every dollar in revenue
- return on equity 18% — $0.18 profit for every $1 investors have put in
B+ — functional but not a standout on the balance sheet.
Total return vs. market
You invested $10,000 in MAT 3 years ago → it's now worth $10,600.
The index would have given you $14,770.
source: institutional data · total return
What just happened
missed estimates
The cleanest read is this: consensus says Mattel missed by 64.55%, even as reported revenue looked strong.
SEC data shows the latest quarter at $3.6B in revenue and $0.90 EPS with 50.1% gross margin. Consensus data, though, flags last earnings at $0.39 versus a $1.10 estimate. When your data tape looks this messy, investors pay for clarity.
$1.7B
revenue
$0.90
eps
50.1%
gross margin
the number that mattered
The 50.1% gross margin matters most because a toy company lives or dies by markdowns, promotions, and inventory discipline.
-
mattel's was looking for a later holiday season than usual to end 2025.third quarter results were well below expectations, but management believes that industry-wide ordering patterns changed this year due to a concerns about weaker low-end consumer and the changing tariff landscape. point of sale data indicated that the toy industry remains healthy, but large-chain retailers were taking a cautious approach by ordering products later in the season.
-
they are also reducing inventories to avoid being caught with excess goods.this environment has shifted business for mattel from the third quarter of 2025 into the fourth quarter.
-
according to management, orders were much stronger than usual at the start of the fourth quarter.there is the possibility that toy demand could be weaker over the entire holiday season and we have trimmed our earnings per share estimate for 2025 by $0.10 and by a nickel for 2026.
-
share repurchases have accelerated in the past year.with few attractive acquisition candidates and a historically cheap valuation for the stock, management repurchased 25 million shares in the past 12 months.
-
this reduced the number of shares outstanding by 7.5%, boosting earning per share by a like amount.
source: company earnings report, 2026
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What could go wrong
the top threat is toy demand cooling after a 49.3% growth year.
high
retailer reorder risk
when a toy company grows 49.3% in a year, the next question is what retailers reorder next. if the channel cools, the growth story slows fast.
this risk touches the full $5.3B revenue base, not a side segment.
high
brand fatigue
barbie, hot wheels, and fisher-price are the business. if one or more of those brands lose relevance, mattel doesn't have another engine large enough on this page to hide behind.
with earnings predictability at 30/100, you should expect sharper swings when a brand cycle cools.
med
margin compression
17.5% operating margin looks fine until freight, promotions, and product costs move the wrong way. this is still a physical goods business.
net margin is only 9.2%, so even a modest squeeze matters.
med
guidance credibility gap
company guidance of $1.18–$1.30 EPS sits far below the $1.75 estimate shown in key numbers. if management is closer to right, the stock is not as cheap as the forward multiple suggests.
the valuation debate depends on which earnings number you trust.
a demand miss here doesn't just dent one product line — it hits the whole $5.3B revenue base, and one point of margin pressure matters when net margin is 9.2%.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
earnings
does EPS stabilize next quarter
the last report showed a 19% profit drop from last year. if that repeats, the cheap-multiple story gets weaker fast.
metric
the jump from $5.3B to $6B
the revenue estimate implies about 13% growth from here. that's the number the rebound has to earn.
risk
the guidance gap
$1.18–$1.30 from management versus $1.75 on the page is not a rounding error. somebody has to give.
trend
whether institutions stop trimming
183 buyers versus 209 sellers in 3q2025 says the big money still isn't leaning in.
Analyst rankings
short-term outlook
average
momentum score 3 — in human-speak, analysts don't see a clean near-term edge.
risk profile
average
stability score 3 — you're not buying a bunker stock, but this isn't a disaster setup either.
chart momentum
top 20%
technical score 2 — the chart has been stronger than the fundamentals lately, which is why the stock sits near the top of its $14–$22 range.
earnings predictability
30 / 100
earnings are hard to model here. that's another way of saying surprises come with the territory.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
institutions have been net selling for 2 consecutive quarters — 183 buyers vs. 209 sellers in 3q2025. total institutional holdings: 0.3B shares. net selling for 2 quarters.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
$11
$27
$21
current price
$19
target midpoint · 11% from current · 3-5yr high: $50 (+130% · 24% ann'l return)
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