Start here if you're new
what it is
Marriott mostly collects fees from hotels carrying its brands, while other people usually own the buildings.
how it gets paid
Last year Mar made $26.2B in revenue. Canada was the main engine at $13.1B, or 50% of sales.
why it's growing
Revenue grew 4.3% last year. The 8.4% EPS beat mattered most because this stock trades at 32.3x trailing earnings.
what just happened
Marriott just posted $2.58 EPS, beating the $2.38 consensus by 8.4%.
At a glance
B++ balance sheet — above average — nothing keeping you up at night
20/100 earnings predictability — expect surprises
32.3x trailing p/e — you're paying up for this one
0.8% dividend yield — cash in your pocket every quarter
25.5% return on capital — every dollar works hard here
xvary composite: 66/100 — average
What they do
Marriott mostly collects fees from hotels carrying its brands, while other people usually own the buildings.
Marriott wins because scale sells trust. It has 8,800 properties and 1,597,380 rooms worldwide, so your company travel desk and your vacation habits already know the logos. That brand density feeds a fee model (fees → payments for using Marriott brands and systems → so what: Marriott earns without owning every hotel) and helps keep operating margin at 20.0%.
How they make money
$26.2B
annual revenue · their business grew +4.3% last year
Canada
$13.1B
n/a
International
$13.1B
n/a
The products that matter
hotel management and franchising
brand and fee engine
$26.2B revenue · 30 brands
this is the business. 30 brands generated $26.2B in revenue, and analysts expect roughly $28B next year if room demand and pricing stay in line.
core engine
Key numbers
25.5%
return on capital
Return on capital → profit earned on money put into the business → so what: Marriott keeps turning every $1 invested into about $0.26 of profit.
$14.4B
long-term debt
Long-term debt → money owed beyond one year → so what: the debt load is 14% of capital, which is fine in good travel markets and less fun in bad ones.
32.3x
trailing p/e
P/E → how many dollars you pay for $1 of profit → so what: you are paying a premium price for a hotel company.
20.0%
operating margin
Operating margin → profit after running the business → so what: Marriott keeps $0.20 from each $1 of sales before interest and taxes.
Financial health
B++
strength
- balance sheet grade B++ — above average financial health
- risk rank 3 — safer than 50% of stocks
- price stability 65 / 100
- long-term debt $14.4B (14% of capital)
- net profit margin 12.8% — keeps 13 cents of every dollar in revenue
- return on equity 58% — $0.58 profit for every $1 investors have put in
B++ — functional but not a standout on the balance sheet.
Total return vs. market
You invested $10,000 in MAR 3 years ago → it's now worth $20,830.
The index would have given you $14,770.
source: institutional data · total return
What just happened
beat estimates
Marriott just posted $2.58 EPS, beating the $2.38 consensus by 8.4%.
That beat matters because 2024 full-year EPS was $9.34 versus $10.18 in 2023. One strong quarter helps, but you still need to watch whether full-year earnings can climb toward the $15.00 long-range estimate.
$6.7B
revenue
$2.58
eps
8.4%
surprise
the number that mattered
The 8.4% EPS beat mattered most because this stock trades at 32.3x trailing earnings, and pricey stocks need clean beats to hold up.
-
the size of the company’s portfolio of hotels grew, thanks largely to increased conversions, which are existing independent hotels that are transitioned into the marriott portfolio.furthermore, higher worldwide revenue per available room (revpar) and unit growth led to increased management and franchise fees, along with higher credit card comparisons. finally, the company’s margins trended higher, thanks to costsaving and productivity-enhancement measures. we feel the story remained largely the same for the december period, resulting in healthy from a year ago profit growth for 2025.
-
we look for earnings per share to trend higher this year, assuming the economy stays on track.global travel demand has remained quite solid, despite some economic headwinds, namely uneven consumer spending trends and the effects of tariffs. we look for the travel trends to remain positive in 2026, as the domestic economy is poised to expand at a moderate clip.
-
this ought to lead to improved comparisons on both the business and leisure side.
-
we project that earnings per share will reach the $15.00 mark over the 3 to 5-year pull.
-
this equates to high single digit annual earnings growth, on average, over that stretch.marriott is highly leveraged, though this is common due to the capital-intensive nature of the industry.
source: company earnings report, 2026
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What could go wrong
the top risk is a travel slowdown that hits revpar and fee growth.
high
travel demand slowing
this is a $26.2B business tied to business and leisure travel. if occupancy softens or room rates stop climbing, fee growth softens with it.
this risk hits the whole revenue base, not some side segment.
med
securities fraud claims and investigation
the lawsuit and investigation are not the operating story. that is what makes them annoying. they keep attention on headlines when you want investors focused on earnings.
hard to size precisely, but legal noise can pressure sentiment even if the quarter looks fine.
med
$14.4B of long-term debt
debt equal to 14% of capital is manageable, but it cuts into flexibility if financing gets tighter or travel demand cools.
debt matters more when the cycle turns than when the cycle looks perfect.
med
premium multiple, low predictability
32.3x trailing earnings would be easier to defend if results were highly predictable. the predictability score is 20/100, which is the market's polite way of saying travel numbers can move around.
if growth slips even modestly, the multiple has room to fall before the business does.
if travel softens, it pressures the full $26.2B revenue base. at 32.3x earnings with $14.4B of long-term debt, there is not much room for a miss.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
metric
revenue moving from $26.2B toward $28B
that 6.9% step-up is the cleanest test of whether Marriott can grow into the multiple you are paying for now.
risk
revpar staying healthy
revpar is the room-rate-and-occupancy signal. if it fades, fee growth usually fades right behind it.
earnings
whether the next quarter can clear the $2.67 EPS mark
premium stocks do not get extra applause for one strong quarter. they get judged on whether strong becomes routine.
flow
institutional selling that is small but persistent
589 buyers versus 591 sellers is not dramatic. two straight quarters leaning negative still tells you big money is not chasing the stock here.
Analyst rankings
short-term outlook
top 20%
momentum score 2 — in human-speak, analysts think MAR has better-than-average odds of beating most stocks over the next 12 months.
risk profile
average
stability score 3 — this is neither a bunker stock nor a rollercoaster.
chart momentum
average
technical score 3 — the chart looks fine, but it is not screaming anything unusual.
earnings predictability
20 / 100
forecasting this business is harder than the market average. travel names look stable until the cycle decides otherwise.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
institutions have been net selling for 2 consecutive quarters — 589 buyers vs. 591 sellers in 3q2025. total institutional holdings: 0.2B shares. net selling for 2 quarters.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
$258
$496
$323
current price
$377
target midpoint · +17% from current · 3-5yr high: $415 (+30% · 7% ann'l return)
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