XVARY Composite Score
63
/ 100
Average
Combines growth, value, risk, and momentum factors into a single institutional-grade score.
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What it is
Macy’s sells clothes, beauty, and home goods through department stores, off-price stores, and specialty beauty shops.
How it gets paid
Last year M made $22.3B in revenue. women's apparel was the main engine at $10.7B, or 48% of sales.
Why growth slowed
Revenue fell 3.5% last year. Owned comparable sales rose 2.5%. Comparable sales → sales from the same stores → whether customers are actually coming back.
What just happened
Revenue hit $14.1B, while owned comparable sales rose 2.5% and management raised its outlook again.
At a Glance
B+ balance sheet — decent shape, but not bulletproof
15/100 earnings predictability — expect surprises
10.4x trailing p/e — the market's not buying it — or you found a deal
3.3% dividend yield — cash in your pocket every quarter
12.5% return on capital — nothing to write home about
XVARY composite: 63/100 — average
What They Do
Macy’s sells clothes, beauty, and home goods through department stores, off-price stores, and specialty beauty shops.
You already know the advantage: when you need a dress, cookware, or a last-minute gift, one trip can cover all three. Macy’s still runs 680 department stores and private-label goods are 20% of sales, which means it keeps more of the ticket instead of handing it to national brands.
How They Make Money
$22.3B
annual revenue · their business grew -3.5% last year
women's apparel
$10.7B
accessories
$3.6B
men's and children's
$4.7B
home and misc.
$3.3B
The Products That Matter
Runs stores and sells online
Retail stores & e-commerce
$14.1B revenue
it's effectively the entire $14.1B business in this snapshot, so your thesis rises and falls with retail execution.
the whole story
Key Numbers
10.4x
trailing p/e
P/E → price-to-earnings → what you pay for each dollar of profit. So what: Macy’s is priced like a no-growth retailer, which fits the -1.0% projected sales growth.
7.4%
operating margin
Operating margin → profit left after running the stores → the cushion before things get ugly. So what: there is some cushion, but not much.
$2.4B
long-term debt
Long-term debt → money owed over years → fixed obligations that do not care about mall traffic. So what: Macy’s debt is 29% of capital.
3.3%
dividend yield
Dividend yield → cash paid to shareholders each year → what you get while waiting. So what: you are being paid, but the payout depends on holding margins.
Financial Health
B+
Strength
- balance sheet grade B+ — solid but not elite
- risk rank 4 — safer than 20% of stocks
- price stability 15 / 100
- long-term debt $2.4B (29% of capital)
- net profit margin 3.6% — keeps 4 cents of every dollar in revenue
- return on equity 16% — $0.16 profit for every $1 investors have put in
B+ — functional but not a standout on the balance sheet.
Total Return vs. Market
You invested $10000 in M 3 years ago → it's now worth $12060.
The index would have given you $14770.
source: institutional data · total return
What Just Happened
beat estimates
Revenue hit $14.1B, while owned comparable sales rose 2.5% and management raised its outlook again.
The reported EPS surprise was zero, with $0.09 matching estimates. The bigger story was that comps improved and the fiscal 2025 outlook was raised for a second straight quarter.
$14.1B
revenue
$0.48
eps
2.5%
owned comps
the number that mattered
Owned comparable sales rose 2.5%. Comparable sales → sales from the same stores → whether customers are actually coming back. So what: that number matters more than a zero-cent EPS surprise.
-
Comp-sales on an owned basis were up 2.5%, helping to push share earnings up to $0.09.that figure compares favorably to the $0.04 in the year-earlier period, and was a welcome surprise, as all parties were expecting a loss in the 90-day window.
-
The outlook for fiscal 2025 was raised for the second-consecutive quarter.net sales are now apt to move above the $22-billion mark, translating to share earnings of about $2.20.
-
Our previous call sat at $1.95 a share.
-
Comp-sales relative to the prior year should rise by roughly 0.5%, which is far better from a previous view that had receipts falling by as much as 1.5%.
-
Management did strike a somewhat cautious tone when it touched on the mindset of consumers.more specifically, leadership stated that shoppers will be spending selectively this holiday season, so macy’s needed to be on its game.
source: company earnings report, 2026
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What Could Go Wrong
The #1 risk is promotional discounting in a low-margin department-store model.
Med
Promotions eat the margin
Macy's only posted a 2.7% net profit margin on $14.1B in revenue. When the customer gets selective, retailers usually respond with markdowns. That math gets ugly fast.
Even a modest hit to gross profit can wipe out a large share of earnings because there is very little margin buffer.
Med
Store traffic keeps shifting
You own a 680-store footprint in a category that has spent years fighting e-commerce, off-price chains, and changing shopping habits. Scale helps. It does not solve relevance.
If traffic weakens, the whole $14.1B revenue base is exposed because this snapshot shows effectively one operating engine.
Med
The earnings rebound disappoints
The bull case leans on about $2.20 in full-year EPS after a quarter that still printed only $0.04. If that rebound slips, the stock being above the $20 target midpoint starts to matter more.
At 10.4x earnings, the stock looks cheap only if those earnings hold up. If they do not, the multiple is not protection.
with a 2.7% margin, $2.4B in long-term debt, and a price already above the $20 midpoint target, Macy's does not have much room for an operational mistake.
Source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay Attention To
Earnings
Next earnings report
The next print needs to show that the $2.20 full-year EPS frame is holding. One soft quarter can reset the entire story.
Margin
Net margin versus promotions
A 2.7% net margin leaves almost no cushion. If discounts rise, profitability can disappear faster than revenue.
Trend
Owned comp-sales momentum
The recent 2.5% owned comp gain helped the stock narrative. You want to see whether that was a start or a one-quarter cameo.
Consumer
Selective holiday spending
Management already warned that shoppers are being selective. For Macy's, that usually means more promotions and less margin.
Analyst Rankings
short-term outlook
top 5%
Momentum score 1 is the highest rating. In human-speak, analysts think this has stronger near-term price action than almost everything else.
risk profile
below average
Stability score 4 means more volatility than most stocks. You are not owning a sleepy retailer here.
chart momentum
top 20%
Technical score 2 points to above-average price performance in the year ahead. The chart looks better than the business quality.
earnings predictability
15 / 100
This is the opposite of a steady compounder. If you own it, expect revisions and louder quarter-to-quarter reactions.
Source: institutional data
Institutional Activity
institutions have been net buying for 3 consecutive quarters — 215 buyers vs. 183 sellers in 3q2025. total institutional holdings: 0.2B shares. net buying for 3 quarters.
Source: institutional data
Price Targets
3-5 year target range
$8
$31
$23
Current price
$20
Target midpoint · 12% from current · 3-5yr high: $25 (+10% · 5% ann'l return)
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