Start here if you're new
what it is
Live Nation sells tickets, promotes concerts, runs venues, and gets paid almost every time you leave your couch for a show.
how it gets paid
Last year Live Nation Ent made $25.2B in revenue. concert promotion was the main engine at $18.2B, or 72% of sales.
why it's growing
Revenue grew 8.8% last year. In 2026, earnings improvement will likely be driven by a higher mix of operated stadiums and arenas, where per-fan profitability is structurally stronger, as well.
what just happened
FY2025 EPS dropped to $1.05 from $2.74 in 2024, even with annual revenue at $25.2B.
At a glance
B+ balance sheet — decent shape, but not bulletproof
20/100 earnings predictability — expect surprises
141.8x trailing p/e — you're paying up for this one
11.0% return on capital — nothing to write home about
xvary composite: 48/100 — below average
What they do
Live Nation sells tickets, promotes concerts, runs venues, and gets paid almost every time you leave your couch for a show.
Scale is the moat. Live Nation sold 638 million tickets and promoted 54,687 events in 2024, while working with about 1,500 sponsors and managing 380 artists. If you want the biggest tours, the biggest venues, and the biggest ticketing pipe in one place, you usually end up in their system.
How they make money
$25.2B
annual revenue · their business grew +8.8% last year
concert promotion
$18.2B
+9.5%
venue operations
$2.2B
+7.0%
ticketing solutions
$3.0B
+6.0%
sponsorship
$1.4B
+12.0%
e-commerce and artist management
$0.4B
+4.0%
The products that matter
promotes and produces live events
Concerts
$18.5B revenue · 73% of sales
It is the center of gravity. This segment produced $18.5B, or 73% of total revenue, so when stadium demand is strong, you feel it across the whole company.
main engine
processes tickets via ticketmaster
Ticketing
$6.6B revenue · 26% of sales
This $6.6B segment is smaller than Concerts but strategically heavier. It is the transaction layer, the data layer, and the part regulators care most about.
profit gate
sells brand partnerships and ads
Sponsorship & Advertising
$0.1B revenue · 0.4% of sales
At just $0.1B, this is not moving the investment case yet. It helps around the edges, but it is too small to offset weakness in Concerts or Ticketing.
small lever
Key numbers
$1.85
fy2026 eps est
$32B
fy2028 rev est
141.8x
trailing p/e
n/a
dividend yield
Financial health
B+
strength
- balance sheet grade B+ — solid but not elite
- risk rank 3 — safer than 50% of stocks
- price stability 50 / 100
- long-term debt $6.1B (15% of capital)
- net profit margin 2.4% — keeps 2 cents of every dollar in revenue
- return on equity 28% — $0.28 profit for every $1 investors have put in
B+ — functional but not a standout on the balance sheet.
Total return vs. market
You invested $10,000 in LYV 3 years ago → it's now worth $20,350.
The index would have given you $14,770.
source: institutional data · total return
What just happened
missed estimates
FY2025 EPS dropped to $1.05 from $2.74 in 2024, even with annual revenue at $25.2B.
Reported earnings got hit by non-operational items and cash flow timing. Management's underlying operating picture looked better than GAAP profit, but the stock is still being priced off the noisy version.
$25.2B
revenue
$1.05
eps
2.4%
net margin
the number that mattered
The number that mattered was $1.05 of FY2025 EPS, because a stock at 141.8x earnings needs clean growth, not a 61.7% vs. prior year drop.
-
earnings, however, declined as several non-operational factors weighed on results.these included higher depreciation and amortization stemming from heavy venue investment, increased stock-based compensation, elevated borrowing costs (despite refinancing), and higher non-controlling interest as international and joint venture exposure expanded.
-
cash flow timing also distorted reported profitability.large upfront artist payments, deferred revenues, and working-capital swings generated ‘‘lumpy’’ earnings conversion.
-
underlying aoi and free cash flow remained solid, but gaap earnings did not reflect this strength.
-
on the upside, we look for a recovery in operating results this year.in 2026, earnings improvement will likely be driven by a higher mix of operated stadiums and arenas, where per-fan profitability is structurally stronger, as well as by the maturation of recent venue investments, delivering double-digit rates of return. growing deferred revenue provides clearer earnings visibility, while accelerating international ticketmaster adoption lifts margins through scale and technology leverage. refinancing has modestly reduced interest expense, easing some pressure on net profits, while capital intensity moderates and major development projects begin to generate revenue. as depreciation growth stabilizes and sponsorship penetration deepens, stronger aoi should flow through to the bottom line. the justice department’s case against live nation is unlikely to lead to a breakup or materially disrupt operations.
-
ongoing compliance efforts strengthen the company’s position.
source: company earnings report, 2026
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What could go wrong
the #1 risk is doj action against the live nation–ticketmaster structure.
med
antitrust remedies hit the core model
Concerts and Ticketing account for about 99% of revenue combined. If regulators force structural changes, they are not touching a side business. They are touching almost the whole company.
Impact: the DOJ case hangs over the $18.5B Concerts segment and the $6.6B Ticketing segment at the same time.
med
thin margins leave little room for mistakes
A 1.6% net margin on $25.2B of revenue means the company is operating at scale without much earnings cushion. Small increases in cost, interest expense, or mix pressure can hit EPS hard.
Impact: this is why a quarter with $8.5B of revenue still produced only $0.73 of EPS.
med
cash flow and gaap earnings do not move cleanly together
Management described artist payments, deferred revenue, and working-capital swings as lumpy. That can make quarterly earnings harder to read, and the 20/100 predictability score says this is not a one-off.
Impact: latest-quarter EPS fell 56% from last year even though underlying AOI and free cash flow were described as solid.
med
the multiple assumes cleaner profits ahead
At 141.8x trailing earnings, the stock is already priced for a recovery in profitability. If 2026 EPS misses the $1.85 expectation, that optimism will have less to stand on.
Impact: when the earnings base is this small, even modest estimate cuts can matter more than the revenue story.
Concerts plus Ticketing make up roughly 99% of revenue, so the key legal and margin risks are aimed at almost the entire business, not the edges.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
valuation
whether $1.85 EPS actually shows up
The stock can tolerate noise only if the full-year earnings recovery materializes. At 141.8x trailing earnings, that estimate matters more than usual.
risk
DOJ posture toward Ticketmaster
The legal overhang is not abstract. Concerts and Ticketing together are about 99% of revenue, so any remedy discussion deserves your attention.
calendar
the next earnings window
Earnings are estimated between april 30 and may 4, 2026. With a 20/100 predictability score, this name can reset fast around the print.
trend
whether margins improve with venue mix
Management is leaning on operated stadiums and arenas to improve per-fan profitability. If operating margin stays near 5.5%, the bull case gets thinner.
Analyst rankings
short-term outlook
below average
momentum score 4 — in human-speak, analysts think this could lag from here even if the long-term story stays intact.
risk profile
average
stability score 3 — this is not a bunker stock, but it is not a pure chaos name either.
chart momentum
average
technical score 3 — the chart is not screaming either way. Right now the fundamentals and legal story matter more.
earnings predictability
20 / 100
Low predictability means the quarterly numbers can surprise you. LYV is easier to admire as a business than to model cleanly.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
institutions have been net buying for 3 consecutive quarters — 387 buyers vs. 323 sellers in 3q2025. total institutional holdings: 0.2B shares. net buying for 3 quarters.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
$122
$256
$149
current price
$189
target midpoint · +27% from current · 3-5yr high: $256
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