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what it is
LyondellBasell turns oil and gas feedstocks into plastics, chemicals, and fuels used in packaging, cars, and industry.
how it gets paid
Last year Lyondellbasell made $30.2B in revenue. Intermediates & Derivatives was the main engine at $9.6B, or 32% of sales.
why growth slowed
Revenue fell 9.7% last year. The December quarter was ugly. said sales fell 25% because seasonal demand was weak and selling prices were soft.
what just happened
LYB's last report was a miss: EPS landed at -$0.45 versus a $0.74 estimate.
At a glance
B++ balance sheet — above average — nothing keeping you up at night
25/100 earnings predictability — expect surprises
11.1x trailing p/e — the market's not buying it — or you found a deal
10.1% dividend yield — cash in your pocket every quarter
9.0% return on capital — nothing to write home about
xvary composite: 50/100 — below average
What they do
LyondellBasell turns oil and gas feedstocks into plastics, chemicals, and fuels used in packaging, cars, and industry.
This is scale you can feel. LYB generated $30.2B in annual revenue and runs five operating segments with about 20,000 employees at 12/31/24. If you use packaged goods, drive a car, or buy fuel, your life already touches supply chains this size, and replacing that reach is slow and expensive.
How they make money
$30.2B
annual revenue · their business grew -9.7% last year
Olefins & Polyolefins-Americas
$8.8B
Olefins & Polyolefins-Europe, Asia, Int'l
$8.6B
Intermediates & Derivatives
$9.6B
Refining
$2.8B
Technology
$0.4B
The products that matter
produces plastics and resins
Olefins & Polyolefins
$22.4B revenue · 74% of sales
it generated $22.4B last year and accounted for 74% of total revenue. if this line weakens, the whole income statement feels it.
74% of sales
refines and processes chemicals
Intermediates & Derivatives
$7.8B revenue · 26% of sales
this $7.8B segment is the rest of the revenue base. useful diversification, but not enough to offset pressure in a business where the core line is nearly three times larger.
26% of sales
higher-value polymer mix
Advanced Polymer Solutions
data not split out here
the page gives no stand-alone revenue number for this line. that matters. in a $30.2B company earning just a 4.4% net margin, the unlabeled pieces are not the investment case.
thin disclosure
Key numbers
10.1%
dividend yield
Dividend yield → cash payout versus your share price → 10.1% is huge, and giant yields usually mean the market is questioning the payout.
1.4%
operating margin
Operating margin → profit after running the business → LYB was losing 1.4 cents on every dollar of sales at the operating line.
9.0%
return on capital
Return on capital → profit generated from the money tied up in plants and equipment → 9.0% is decent for a hard-asset business, but not enough to hide a bad cycle.
11.1x
trailing p/e
P/E → how many dollars you pay for each dollar of earnings → 11.1x looks cheap until you remember trailing EPS is distorted by a rough year.
Financial health
B++
strength
- balance sheet grade B++ — above average financial health
- risk rank 3 — safer than 50% of stocks
- price stability 65 / 100
- long-term debt $10.6B (37% of capital)
- net profit margin 4.8% — keeps 5 cents of every dollar in revenue
- return on equity 12% — $0.12 profit for every $1 investors have put in
B++ — functional but not a standout on the balance sheet.
Total return vs. market
You invested $10,000 in LYB 3 years ago → it's now worth $6,890.
The index would have given you $13,880.
source: institutional data · total return
What just happened
missed estimates
LYB's last report was a miss: EPS landed at -$0.45 versus a $0.74 estimate.
The December quarter was ugly. said sales fell 25% because seasonal demand was weak and selling prices were soft, and noncash asset writedowns pushed results lower.
$7.09B
revenue
$0.45
eps
32.0%
surprise
the number that mattered
The $1.19 gap between actual EPS of -$0.45 and the $0.74 estimate tells you conditions were worse than the market expected.
-
lyondellbasell continues its string of poor quarterly results.
-
sales fell 25% in the december period.indeed, other than the second interim of 2024, sales have fallen for 10 successive from a year ago quarters.
-
the top line weakened due to low seasonal demand, which restrained selling prices.meantime, the bottom line suffered from the higher cost of natural gas liquids (a major feedstock), maintenance activities, and industry outages.
-
noncash asset writedowns also dragged down the bottom line.
-
will things turn around in 2026?
source: company earnings report, 2026
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What could go wrong
the top risk is weak polyethylene pricing colliding with higher natural gas liquids costs.
med
core plastics pricing stays weak
sales fell 25% in the december period, and Olefins & Polyolefins still makes up $22.4B, or 74%, of total revenue.
when the core segment weakens, most of the company weakens with it.
med
feedstock inflation squeezes already-thin profits
management flagged higher natural gas liquids costs, while operating margin was 10.5% and net margin was only 4.4%.
that spread tells you there is not much room for cost pressure before earnings get ugly again.
med
outages and maintenance drag on a cyclical base
maintenance activity and industry outages hit the latest quarter, which matters more when earnings predictability is just 25/100.
in human terms: this business already swings. downtime makes the swings wider.
med
regulatory noise adds one more headache
a European Commission filing points to potential compliance or legal friction. on its own, that is manageable. stacked on weak demand, it is just extra weight.
this is not the core risk. it is the kind of side risk that becomes more annoying when the core business is already under pressure.
with 74% of revenue tied to Olefins & Polyolefins, weaker selling prices or higher feedstock costs do not stay contained. they hit the center of the business.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
income
the 10.1% dividend yield
that yield is the reason many people own LYB. if it stays this high while earnings stay weak, the market is telling you the payout is doing all the work.
trend
whether sales actually stabilize
the december period saw sales fall 25%. analysts now model $32B in 2026 revenue, or roughly 6% growth from $30.2B. that gap is the debate.
next report
EPS needs to move back above zero
last quarter lost $2.77 per share. the next few prints matter because a cyclical rebound story is hard to sell when the income statement is still negative.
risk
feedstock costs versus selling prices
higher natural gas liquids costs already hurt results. if input costs stay high while polyethylene pricing stays soft, margins get squeezed from both sides.
Analyst rankings
short-term outlook
below average
momentum score 4 — in human-speak, analysts think this is more likely to lag than lead in the near term.
risk profile
average
stability score 3 — neither a bunker stock nor a disaster by default.
chart momentum
below average
technical score 4 — the tape is not giving you much help here.
earnings predictability
25 / 100
quarterly results are hard to model, which fits a company that just posted -$2.77 EPS after a much better prior base.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
351 buyers vs. 475 sellers in 3q2025. total institutional holdings: 0.2B shares.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
$40
$89
$55
current price
$65
target midpoint · +17% from current · 3-5yr high: $95 (+70% · 21% ann'l return)
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