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what it is
Lamb Weston sells frozen fries and other potato products to restaurants and retailers in more than 100 countries.
how it gets paid
Last year Lamb Weston made $6.5B in revenue. Foodservice french fries was the main engine at $4.23B, or 65% of sales.
why growth slowed
Revenue fell 0.3% last year. Consensus data showed last earnings at $0.44 versus a $0.64 estimate.
what just happened
The latest report showed a 31.25% EPS miss versus consensus, which is why the stock still trades like a reset story.
At a glance
B+ balance sheet — decent shape, but not bulletproof
40/100 earnings predictability — expect surprises
16.7x trailing p/e — the market's not buying it — or you found a deal
3.6% dividend yield — cash in your pocket every quarter
16.0% return on capital — nothing to write home about
xvary composite: 55/100 — below average
What they do
Lamb Weston sells frozen fries and other potato products to restaurants and retailers in more than 100 countries.
This is a scale business. Lamb Weston sells in over 100 countries and runs plants across nine countries, which keeps fries moving when your restaurant customer cannot run out. McDonald’s was 15% of fiscal 2025 sales, and that tells you the company is trusted by the pickiest giant in fast food.
How they make money
$6.5B
annual revenue · their business grew -0.3% last year
Foodservice french fries
$4.23B
Foodservice other potato products
$0.98B
Retail french fries
$0.84B
Retail other potato products
$0.45B
The products that matter
processes and sells frozen potato products
Frozen Potato Products
$6.5B · 100% of revenue
it generated the entire $6.5B business last year. That's focus if demand is healthy, and concentration risk if it isn't.
100% of revenue
Key numbers
16.7x
trailing p/e
P/E → stock price divided by earnings → so what: you are paying a market-like multiple for a business whose EPS fell 64.0% from $6.95 to $2.50.
$3.6B
long-term debt
Debt → money owed → so what: at 39% of capital, leverage is manageable but not invisible if margins stay at 10.3%.
16.0%
return on capital
Return on capital → profit from each dollar invested → so what: this is still a decent business underneath the earnings slump.
3.6%
dividend yield
Dividend yield → cash paid to shareholders each year → so what: you are being paid to wait, but only if earnings stabilize.
Financial health
B+
strength
- balance sheet grade B+ — solid but not elite
- risk rank 3 — safer than 50% of stocks
- price stability 35 / 100
- long-term debt $3.6B (39% of capital)
- net profit margin 9.8% — keeps 10 cents of every dollar in revenue
- return on equity 38% — $0.38 profit for every $1 investors have put in
B+ — functional but not a standout on the balance sheet.
Total return vs. market
You invested $10,000 in LW 3 years ago → it's now worth $4,970.
The index would have given you $13,920.
source: institutional data · total return
What just happened
missed estimates
The latest report showed a 31.25% EPS miss versus consensus, which is why the stock still trades like a reset story.
Consensus data showed last earnings at $0.44 versus a $0.64 estimate. The supplied EDGAR data also shows a latest-quarter EPS figure of $0.90, so the clean takeaway is that reported profitability remains choppy even as annual revenue held at $6.5B.
$6.5B
revenue
$0.44
eps
10.3%
gross margin
the number that mattered
The number that mattered was the 31.25% EPS miss, because a turnaround stock does not get much patience when earnings come in that far below plan.
source: company earnings report, 2026
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What could go wrong
the #1 risk is lost volume or pricing with large foodservice customers.
high
customer concentration and ordering patterns
The page already tells you customer relationships are critical. In a one-category, $6.5B business, losing a major restaurant or foodservice account hits volume quickly and leaves little else to offset it.
Revenue concentration is the issue here. All $6.5B comes from frozen potato products.
med
cost-savings execution
Management says it is on track for $55M in pre-tax savings this year and is targeting $85M. If that program stalls, the recovery story turns from "temporary margin pressure" into "lower earnings power."
The gap between $55M achieved and $85M targeted is the number to watch.
med
leverage plus thin margins
A B+ balance sheet is fine. $3.6B in long-term debt and a 6.0% net margin are less forgiving. When margins are thin, a modest operating miss matters more than you want.
Debt is 39% of capital. This is manageable, not trivial.
low
equity issuance tied to compensation
The $95.56M shelf registration linked to the employee stock plan is small relative to the business, but it still adds friction for shareholders while the stock is weak.
Not the core thesis-breaker. Still worth noticing at a ~$6B market cap.
Together, these risks sit on top of a business with $6.5B in revenue, a 6.0% net margin, and $3.6B in long-term debt. That's enough operating leverage to matter and not much room for sloppy execution.
source: institutional data · regulatory filings · risk analysis
Pay attention to
earnings
april 1 is the next reality check
Quarterly results land april 1, 2026. If revenue is still soft and savings are not showing through, the "cheap turnaround" story gets weaker.
margins
the $55M to $85M savings bridge
Management says $55M of pre-tax savings is in hand and $85M is the target. That missing $30M matters more than another generic optimism quote.
ownership
whether institutions stop selling
Three straight quarters of net institutional selling tells you big money has not started buying the rebound story yet.
top line
revenue stabilization
Last year revenue slipped 0.3%, and this year's estimate is $6B versus $6.5B last year. Until that line stabilizes, the valuation discount will keep making sense.
Analyst rankings
short-term outlook
average
momentum score 3. In human-speak, analysts do not see a strong near-term signal either way.
risk profile
average
stability score 3 means roughly middle-of-the-pack risk. Safer than many cyclicals, less steady than the word "staples" suggests.
chart momentum
average
technical score 3 says the chart is not giving you a clean trend signal. The market is waiting for proof.
earnings predictability
40 / 100
earnings predictability at 40/100 means quarterly results can move around more than you'd expect from a frozen-food business.
source: institutional data
Institutional activity
institutions have been net selling for 3 consecutive quarters — 262 buyers vs. 293 sellers in 3q2025. total institutional holdings: 0.1B shares. net selling for 3 quarters.
source: institutional data
Price targets
3-5 year target range
$27
$80
$42
current price
$54
target midpoint · +29% from current · 3-5yr high: $95 (+125% · 25% ann'l return)
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